MOSCOW, May 30 (RIA Novosti) Russia tests MIRVed ICBM/ Russia to secure military presence in Moldova for next decade/ Russia's opponents want to delegitimize future elections - political analyst/ S7 Airlines to order first Boeing 787 for Russia/ AvtoVAZ could experience cash shortfall on Magna project
Gazeta.ru
Russia tests MIRVed ICBM
On Tuesday, Russia's military successfully carried out a test launch of an RS-24 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs). The RS-24 is due to replace the current RS-18 and RS-20 rockets, known in the West as the SS-19 Stiletto and SS-18 Satan, respectively, which carry six and ten warheads each.
The Defense Ministry said the RS-24 ICBM matches the requirements of the Russian-U.S. START-I agreement and the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty.
Initial tests involved a hybrid ICBM comprising the Topol-M ground missile and warheads of the Bulava sea-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).
Vladimir Yevseyev, senior research associate at the International Security Center of the Moscow-based Institute of World Economy and International Relations, said the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology, responsible for designing the Topol-M and the Bulava-30, has developed the new missile based on both systems.
Yevseyev said Russia badly needs the RS-24 ICBM because it plans to manufacture seven to nine single-warhead missiles with a 7-9-year service life per year.
He said Russia, which is allowed 1,700 to 2,200 strategic warheads under the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty by 2012, would retain just 180 warheads. MIRVed RS-24 ICBMs would have more warheads for boosting the potential of strategic forces, Yevseyev told the paper.
Moscow started talking about an entirely new ICBM system right after the United States announced its decision to create the National Missile Defense (NMD) system using bases in Poland and the Czech Republic - NATO nations and former members of the Warsaw Pact.
Although missile-defense talks between Washington, Warsaw and Prague have just begun, the latest Russian ICBM tests highlight Moscow's concerns about a proposed U.S. missile shield in Europe.
The RS-24 test launch was announced in the run-up to the Moscow visit by Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates.
This is hardly a coincidence because Moscow is trying to forge an alliance with the European Union, and because Portugal will assume the EU presidency in late 2007.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Russia to secure military presence in Moldova for next decade
Moscow may maintain and legalize its military presence in Transdnestr, while Moldovan wines could return to the Russian market as early as this summer. It could happen if a new Transdnestr agreement is signed at the upcoming CIS summit in St. Petersburg on June 10. However, neither Moscow nor Chisinau has so far officially confirmed the possibility, widely discussed by the Moldovan opposition and the Transdnestr government.
A source close to the Moldovan government, who spoke on condition of anonymity, confirmed Tuesday the EU Observer's information that the agreement would indeed be signed "among other routine issues," while Europe as an observer at the Transdnestr settlement talks would be informed post factum. The source disclosed that, along with the special status of the region, the new document would legalize Moscow's military presence in Moldova for the next decade.
In 2003, Moldova's President Vladimir Voronin rejected, at the last moment, the "Kozak memorandum," a Transdnestr settlement option. If he eventually signs the agreement this time, at the St. Petersburg meeting with President Vladimir Putin, Moscow will probably have to compromise by lifting the ban on Moldovan wine imports, the source added. It is extremely important for Chisinau because Russia's "wine veto" is seriously undermining the small nation's economy.
Moscow might even be holding other pleasant surprises for Chisinau up its sleeve, something to be traded for legalization of its military presence in Moldova, as Russia, too, is interested in stronger positions in the CIS and in its difficult dialogue with NATO.
Another expert, Nikolai Andronik, who heads Moldova's National-Republican Party, said Voronin might change his mind again. He even hinted that the information of the agreement being drafted could be leaked by Voronin's close associates, those who had had a hand in failing the Kozak memorandum in 2003.
Izvestia
Russia's opponents want to delegitimize future elections - political analyst
As tensions build up in relations between the West and Russia so the anti-Russian campaign hots up. It is evident that one of the main lines of attack will be delegitimization of the upcoming Duma and presidential elections, writes Vyacheslav Nikonov, president of the Politika Foundation. Or, they will use the delegitimization threat as a tool to apply political pressure: if you behave badly, they may say, we will not recognize your elections and legislative bodies as valid, the same way we did to Belarus.
The formula for such political operations has for decades been tried and tested in many countries, and we are already experiencing its impact.
The first of the standard techniques is to declare a country undemocratic. Freedom House (the organization which is almost always involved in "color revolution" scenarios) has already placed Russia in the same club as North Korea and Myanmar. The second step is for the U.S. State Department, followed by a number of international and non-government organizations, to declare it is their right and duty to help establish democracy in such an undemocratic country by supporting some or other pro-western public and political groups.
Next comes the turn of supporting a marginal political force, which is presented to the world as the true voice and will of the public. The Western press, for example, is giving far more publicity to Garry Kasparov than Vladimir Putin. Then this political force starts making the most noise, on the edge or beyond legal boundaries. A wave of street demonstrations are arranged, preferably without legal authorization, or the format, time and venue of the events allowed are purposely violated. Law enforcers move in to stop such actions short to illustrate that the opposition lacks any freedom of self-expression.
One more technique is to declare future election returns invalid and to call in question the electoral system's ability to provide an accurate and impartial vote count. International election monitoring is organized with foregone conclusions. Few if any now doubt that observers from the OSCE and the Council of Europe will describe the upcoming elections in Russia as unfair, unfree, and undemocratic unless something out of the ordinary happens.
Business&Financial Markets, Vedomosti
S7 Airlines to order first Boeing 787 for Russia
Russia's S7 Airlines intends to buy 15 long-range Boeing 787 Dreamliners. The cost of the contract (at catalogue prices) is $2.4 billion. Analysts warn that S7's debt burden will surge and negatively affect the company's profitability.
On May 29, the sides signed a fixed-price contract for the supply of 15 Dreamliners. The contract provides for an option for the sale of a further ten aircraft on the same terms. S7 Airlines will get its first seven planes in 2014.
S7 is the first Russian company to order Boeing 787 aircraft. Russian national air carrier Aeroflot looked at the possibility of buying them, but chose European A350 aircraft in the end. Oleg Panteleyev, head of Aviaport's analytical service, said S7 would have an advantage because Aeroflot should get its first A350 plane only in 2013. By that time, the Russian air carrier market will grow and S7 will be able to considerably expand its air route coverage. Vladislav Filev, S7's director general, said the company had already transferred an advance payment from its own funds. The transaction will further be funded from loans granted by European and Russian banks. Filev said banks were standing in line to finance this contract.
He confirmed his company's plans to buy 70 new planes within the next five to seven years. Oleg Sudakov, an analyst with the AK Bars Finance investment company, said that if the purchase of all 70 planes was financed by banks, S7 would hardly be able to attract easy-term loans. "The company's debt burden will tangibly increase affecting the company's profitability," the analyst said. Experts also say that S7 is a closed company and the data of consolidated accounts and reports may differ a great deal from those the company has been disclosing so far.
A year ago, Aeroflot wanted to buy 22 Boeing 787 planes, but the company's main shareholder - the government - insisted on an order for Airbus-350 XWB, the new rival European plane. On May 29, Marlin Dailey, Boeing's vice president for sales in Europe, Russia and Central Asia, admitted that the possibility of signing a deal with Aeroflot was still "under discussion." He also said that under the current market conditions the corporation could not offer Aeroflot the same terms as it did 18 months ago. Initially, Boeing was ready to grant a $15-20 million discount to Aeroflot on each airliner.
Vedomosti
AvtoVAZ could experience cash shortfall on Magna project
The AvtoVAZ car maker has not yet started its Magna project, but is already piling up a mass of debt. Recently the plant negotiated a $550 million loan from Raiffeisen Bank, placed bonds worth 5 billion rubles ($193.05 million) on Wednesday, and asked Vneshtorgbank to increase its credit. Experts believe its sales are critically low, leaving little cash for operating activity.
A source close to Vneshtorgbank said the upper credit limit could be raised to 20 billion rubles ($772 million). The bank's press service would not comment beyond saying that the previous limit was set last August and totaled 17 billion rubles ($656 million).
Why AvtoVAZ needs so much money, its spokesman refused to comment, saying he was too busy. Vladimir Artyakov, president of the AvtoVAZ group, commenting on the agreement with Raiffeisen, said the money would fund the company's current projects. The current biggest spending project for AvtoVAZ is a new S class model developed with Magna International and expected to go into production at a new facility. The estimated cost of the project is $2 billion, and its business plan will not be ready until the fall.
But experts are convinced that AvtoVAZ is borrowing money for other purposes. The year began badly for the car manufacturer. In February, its own and its dealers' shipment areas held between 70,000 and 100,000 vehicles, according to different estimates. That did not have a beneficial effect on the car giant's finances. At the end of the 1st quarter the plant had only 2.5 billion rubles ($95 million) in available funds. Meanwhile the inventories of completed (unsold) units had tripled to 8.8 billion rubles ($340 million).
Reported figures say that AvtoVAZ has absolutely no circulating assets of its own, said Yelena Starovoitova, director general of the audit firm Starovoitova and Partners. Throughout the last year and during the first quarter of this, its own funds ratio was negative, the expert said, which means that all liquid assets were financed from borrowed or loaned capital. This is why AvtoVAZ is drawing so heavily on credit, said Yelena Sakhnova, a Deutsche UFG analyst.
The Magna project will also make AvtoVAZ borrow externally, and unless the government gives it a leg up the project may run into financial difficulties, said Sakhnova.
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