As usual, diplomats were the first scapegoats. International experience shows that countries usually resolve their differences after similar moves. Occasionally, however, mutual expulsions make the clash even worse.
Television is a good litmus test for the degree of one country's hostility towards another. Russian TV used to treat Britain as an enigmatic country that played host to the Russian Nouveau Riche and, for reasons unknown, harbored controversial tycoon Boris Berezovsky and fugitive Chechen terrorist chieftains. Now, the U.K. is presented as a land of centuries-old Russophobia, where Russians are thought of as savages.
This biased coverage whips up the public's desire for a fight. But anyone can see that demands that Russia amend its Constitution to allow the extradition of its nationals, let alone the proposal for a Berezovsky-Lugovoi extradition barter, are the last thing that will move Moscow and London towards a rapprochement.
Ironically, the Russian-British quarrel coincided with the end of Libya's international isolation. The bombing of a Pan Am airliner on December 21, 1988 killed all 259 passengers and crew and eleven people on the ground in Lockerbie, Scotland, causing public outrage in Britain and the desire to bring the culprits to justice.
The parallel between the two events might be far-fetched-but it might help us understand what's going on and extrapolate from the past tragedy to the current drama to predict how it will develop. When Libya refused to extradite the Lockerbie killers, Britain managed to put pressure on it from all sides. The United Nations introduced economic, political and technical sanctions. Overseas Libyan bank accounts were frozen, diplomatic relations severed, and a trade embargo imposed. The sanctions were finally lifted in 1999, after Libya agreed to extradite the terrorists on condition that they would be tried in a third country-though Britain had been demanding a trial in Scotland from the start.
There is a world of difference between Russia and Libya, but signs of similar pressure are discernible even now. Britain is hinting that it will take tougher steps than the expulsion of diplomats. Long-established educational and cultural exchanges, and a collaborative counterterrorist effort between the two countries' secret services, are threatened. Britain can be expected to impede Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization, according to information leaked from the Foreign Office. Prime Minister Gordon Brown said repeatedly that harsh steps would be taken to put Andrei Lugovoi in the dock.
What might he mean by that? Most probably, Britain will seek to rally the world around measures to pressure Moscow under the banner of delivering a rebuke to state terrorism. Such allegations were made against Russia during the Chechen war-but the accusation was made officially only on rare occasions. The Lugovoi controversy might revive this dispute and justify legal action. If so, Russia will surely fight back by pointing at Berezovsky and Chechen rebel envoy Akhmed Zakayev, whom Britain has refused to extradite-but who will pay attention to such a tired old argument?
Other European countries are not of one mind about the Moscow-London clash, and are trying to walk a line between the two sides. However, their public statements do not necessarily reflect their true opinions, which can be discerned in the harsh words they use to refer to a wide range of problems, from democracy to energy security.
Moscow's response to London is best expressed in three impolite monosyllables: "Fig to you!" Russia can be excused for being provoked. Overwhelmed by emotion, British officials told it to amend its Constitution. The advice was too rash to be insulting. It was reminiscent of a Russian joke: "You can't have a drink on the job, man? Get another job!"
Mutual recriminations will only force both parties into a deadlock. One thing is clear: Lugovoi must go on trial. Bickering has made both countries forget important legal instruments at their disposal, which will clash with the Russian Constitution only if they are misinterpreted. There is a memorandum of understanding on cooperation between the Crown Prosecution Service and the Russian Prosecutor General's Office, which the two agencies signed on November 15, 2006, and which provides for cooperation in extraditions and other forms of mutual legal assistance.
Lugovoi is suspected of a serious crime, and the suspicion is a smear on his country. Even if Russia finds that the accusation does not hold water, it must make use of the legal instruments at its disposal.
Parallel lines never intersect in Euclidean geometry, but they do in Lobachevsky's. Which geometry will Russia and Britain choose?
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
