Russians have been discussing it much less than westerners, which is understandable-the European Union has to determine whether to take on Turkey as a member. Russia, however, cannot stay entirely indifferent to the recent poll: it has neighborly relations with Turkey, and Russian vacationers flock to its sunny beaches.
Russian political commentaries on the subject have been interesting, though I don't find them all convincing. Everyone highlights the paradox in Turkey. The Justice and Development Party, led by incumbent Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which won a resounding victory in the election, is possibly the country's most pro-European force-but its triumph has given ammunition to those who don't want to see Turkey in the EU. "Western democracy is denouncing democracy!" certain Russian experts have sneered. They have a point, since the election was perfectly aboveboard.
Some analysts have offered other arguments. The Moscow-based magazine Vlast says: "Islam does not recognize the concept of a nation, so a party inspired by its principles might be more effective than others in dealing with the Kurdish issue, one of Turkey's oldest problems." In fact, the latest election has brought several Kurds to parliament. This is especially impressive against the background of rumors of an anti-Kurd operation secretly being prepared close to the Turkish-Iraqi border by the Turkish army and U.S. forces. Pious Muslims are admitting Kurds to parliament while secular-minded soldiers cling to violence-that's how the situation looks.
The same magazine makes another allegation: Western Europe is wary of Turkey, with its dynamically developing economy. That's why it has chosen a wait-and-see attitude towards its eventual competitor's application to the EU.
The European Union was established by countries with strong economies and tough competition between them, which did not prevent them from coming to terms, as the pros of unity evidently outweighed the cons. Later on, enlargement gave the EU countries with uneven economic development and troublesome temperaments. For instance, the problems caused by Poland could easily have been predicted because of its drama-laden history. So the Turkish economic situation is a mere technicality, which will not be an obstacle on its way to the European family.
Turkey's past, on the contrary, is a formidable obstacle. Ottoman massacres and Muslim conversions through bloodshed are still fresh in many European nations' memory. Islam is widespread in several EU member countries as a result of past Turkish conquests. Those countries are now the victims of religious strife originally set in motion by none other than Turkey. The problem is all the worse because Ankara will still not even acknowledge what everyone else knows: the slaughter of millions of Christians in Greece, Bulgaria and Armenia.
Last but not least, by admitting Turkey to the EU, Europe would throw open its door to the Muslim world. Explosive social, religious and political forces may come in Ankara's wake. Upheavals may follow that would make the recent riots in Paris look like child's play.
The European Union is at a loss, meanwhile, on what to do about the radical Muslims already firmly settled in Europe, citizens as well as legal and illegal immigrants. Indicatively, the recent spate of terrorist attacks have mostly been masterminded and perpetrated by Europeanized people. As we see, they have adapted to European life and values only outwardly.
Prime Minister Erdogan appears to be responsible and circumspect about politics-but Turkish Islam will certainly outlive his premiership, and who can tell what turn it might take under another leader?
A religious party in office under a democratic system is an absurdity that promises no end of unpleasant surprises. Therefore, an election that results in an Islamist landslide is cause for concern about, not admiration for, the democracy that makes it possible.
True, an Islamist party has no use for the concept of a nation-but the Kurds will be able to lead a decent life only with a moderate like Erdogan at the helm. They would have a difficult time under radical Islamists, who may yet come to power in Turkey. If they do, the Islamist party can be expected to rally the nation through coercive Muslim conversions, and Kurds will have a whole new set of problems.
So the Turkish issue takes some pondering, and the European Union has every right not to hurry. It is the proprietor of a condominium in which a new lodger could make trouble. Europe might pay dearly for its hospitality.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
