Estonia
A number of journalists believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin is planning to make an early comeback. They argue that Russia has deliberately worsened relations with the West in order to facilitate Putin's early return to power after 2008. "The whole political game is revolving around Putin's successor. According to the plan, the latter will not actually be a successor but rather 'acting' president. The plan mainly involves preventing the successor from sitting pretty in the presidential chair. Putin is supposed to leave his post next spring; under the plan, he will be replaced by someone else just for a year or a year and a half. When much-suffering, crisis-ridden Russia is in trouble again, Putin will return as a knight on a white horse to save it. In a nutshell, this is an option for the current Kremlin team's comeback together with Putin." (Parnu Postimees, July 25).
The press is accusing Russia of organizing cyber attacks on Estonian servers. "By supporting cyber criminals, Russia has stooped to the level of the Taliban-ruled Afghanistan because there is little difference between a state allowing suicide bombers or cyber terrorists to be trained on its territory...Even if there is no evidence that Russia is behind the attacks, its actions (or lack thereof) make clear that it supports cyber terrorism. Russia is a good place for the recruitment, training and operation of cyber terrorists. Nobody bothers or punishes them, and they can continue planning future attacks with impunity." (SL Ohtuleht, July 28).
Latvia
The press is critical of new Latvian President Valdis Zatlers, who believes that the Russian-British conflict is a purely bilateral issue. "If conflicts with Russia become purely bilateral issues, we may end up facing it on our own, in which case it will make patently unacceptable demands." (Diena, July 25).
The press is actively discussing Russia's bid to claim the Arctic Ocean and its effort to prove by means of research that it can extend its territorial waters by 1.2 million square kilometers to the north of its coastline and up to the North Pole. This area may contain up to 100 billion tons of energy resources. "The Kremlin's efforts to reach the North Pole...show that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not afraid of irritating the West. Putin wants a strong Russia, and Western dependence on his country's oil and natural gas is part of this strategy." (Diena, July 27). "The North Pole is not the only 'prize' that the reviving Russian Empire is striving for. Moscow also wants to restore its control over part of the Bering Sea basin (with an area of more than 47,000 square kilometers) between Chukotka and Alaska." (Biznes&Baltiya, July 30).
Lithuania
Experts are optimistic about the CIS market and expect it to become markedly more active in the next few months. "The CIS market is still attractive because nervous investors have already left it, and the share of stable local capital will go up this year. This is why there are grounds for hope that the CIS market will be the most attractive of all emerging markets regardless of whether or not there is a global correction...The Russian equity market has a huge potential for growth in the next three to six months. The number of available shares will go down and investors will be less and less worried about political risks; prices for Russian shares are not excessive, with the exception of the energy sector." (Verslo zinios, July 26).
Belarus
Commentators are discussing the shortcomings of President Alexander Lukashenko's economic policy, which has made Belarus directly dependent on Russian loans. They think that Prime Minister Sergei Sidorsky may be made a scapegoat if the talks fall through.
"Lukashenko will never admit that without Russian energy subsidies, his economic model is a failure. In other words, it is the government and Prime Minister Sidorsky that are to blame for the economic crisis and the decline in living standards. For the time being, the Belarusian economy is doing OK - production is growing and wages are on the rise. But Belarusian experts predict that if nothing changes and Russia does not do [Belarus] any favors, a crisis may break out by the end of this year or the beginning of 2008." (Khartiya, July 27).
The press continues discussing the "conspiracy" which is allegedly brewing in Lukashenklo's closest entourage, not without the Kremlin's involvement. "Lukashenko does not trust his old personnel, and they are tired of the constant psychological pressure...They need guarantees in order to get rid of the president when the time is right. No doubt, they are waiting for a signal from important people. They would prefer to get it from Russia, but they will take it from the West as well. All they want is for this signal to be authentic and loud. Everyone liked the Yugoslavian scenario." (Belorussky partisan, July 29).
Ukraine
The media believe that Britain's actions on the Lugovoi case are motivated partly by economic considerations. London is not happy about the excessive zeal of Russian companies on the British market, and it wants to curb Moscow's expansionist plans by discrediting Moscow on the world stage. "London has received an opportunity to show the voters its readiness to go to any lengths for the sake of their security... Russia has turned from a huge but weak country into a tough rival with a wolfish appetite...Moscow's refusal to extradite Lugovoi gives London a very convenient excuse to conduct its propaganda campaign, accusing the Kremlin of refusing to cooperate with the justice system." (Glavred, July 25). "Russia is obviously becoming a mighty and sinister power which wants to play by its own rules." (Obozrevatel, July 26).
Moldova
The press has extensively covered Russia's decision to suspend the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE). Some analysts are perplexed by the lack of a response from Chisinau to Moscow's decision. "The Kremlin's decision will have a direct effect on Moldova...because there are Russian troops on its territory, which is illegal...Almost all signatories to the CFE treaty have already responded to Putin's decision - some have done so more than once - and the attitude was invariably negative. Even Russia's allies - Belarus and Armenia - do not support Moscow on this issue. It seems like the Republic of Moldova is the only country to remain silent even though its vital interests are at stake. Or maybe it is precisely because its interests are at stake that it is afraid to irritate the Kremlin." (Flux, July 25).
Armenia
The press is closely watching the talks on the status of Kosovo. Experts maintain that Kosovo is bound to be independent and that this decision will become a precedent for as-yet-unrecognized republics in the former Soviet Union. "The United States continues declaring that Kosovo will be given independence no matter what. But who will answer the question of how Kosovo can become independent without the UN's consent? Trying to avoid the resolution of the Kosovo issue at the UN Security Council, where Russia has a veto, the United States has started acting just as it did before the start of the Iraqi military campaign. In other words, in order to circumvent the United Nations, the United States requires the support of its European partners. But unlike the U.S., its partners in Europe are opposed to unilaterally granting Kosovo independence...Tellingly, Kosovo's leaders are planning to declare independence on November 28 - Albania's Independence Day. This may introduce the principle of 'one nation-two states', which could have wide-ranging implications for the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh... Realizing that the United States and Russia will not find a compromise on Kosovo, the world community has to look for unconventional decisions. But no matter what decision the world makes, in perspective it is bound to create a precedent." (Hayots Ashkhar, July 26).
Georgia
The Georgian media have lashed out at UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon for his report on the situation in Abkhazia. Tbilisi chalks up his objectionable assessments to the Kremlin's intrigues and accuses the United Nations of "dancing to Russia's tune."
"Statements by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon confirm that international organizations - the United Nations, the OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) and the Council of Europe ... are actually the puppets of the powers that be and do not have any influence on their own." (Sakartvelos Respublica, July 26). "The UN secretary-general's gesture represents a concession to Russia and shows that it partially shares its position. Time and again, Russia exerts a lot of pressure on the United Nations." (Rezonansi, July 25).
The Georgian media are highly critical of Russian peacekeepers. The press is urging the authorities to take tough measures and to prepare for the inevitable provocations which Moscow will carry out in the peacekeeper-controlled parts of the Georgian-Ossetian conflict zone. "We must be ready for provocations, all the more so when we are faced with such an adversary as Russia...The situation is bound to become worse, and it will happen in winter because the elections will be closer...The Georgian armed forces and security agencies have the ability to reply to an armed provocation with a counter-provocation and to capture or destroy the bulk of the criminals...If we provide an adequate, tough and professional response, the Russian authorities will retreat..." (Ahali Taoba, July 25).
Azerbaijan
The opposition press has been paying a lot of attention to the visit to the United States by religious leaders from three of Russia's North Caucasian republics: Ingushetia, North Ossetia and Kabardino-Balkaria.
"The U.S. president's interest in the religious leaders from the North Caucasus has worried the Kremlin." (Yeni Musavat, July 26). "Putin and his soul mates from among the Russian 'Orthodox Chekists' have reason to be nervous because the imams' trip to the U.S. is the first sign of Washington's intention to tap the Muslim regions of Russia in earnest. Moscow understands quite well how volatile the region is." (Echo, July 26).
Kazakhstan
Analysts maintain that Kazakhstan's nuclear cooperation with the United States will allow Astana already in 2014 to replace its uranium exports (including those to Russia) with finished products with a high added value. Now that Astana has bought shares in America's Westinghouse company, Russia may lose lucrative contracts for the construction of power plants in the CIS. "If Westinghouse combines its commercial activities with political support from the White House, Astana's multi-directional policy in the nuclear field will become one more test for the relations between the Russian and Kazakh leaders. Moreover, Russia's irritation with the American direction of Kazakh energy cooperation may be just as great as its disappointment with Kazakhstan's participation in oil and gas projects bypassing Russian territory." (Delovaya nedelya, July 27).
Experts believe that the project to build a transcontinental railroad and the Atasu-Alashankou oil pipeline is not likely to be carried out in the near future because China's geopolitical goals are at variance with Russia's objectives. "Analysts think that this project is of very little interest to Russia. Its big neighbor, Kazakhstan, has the Trans-Siberian Railway, which is running quite well. For all the benefits of Sino-Russian relations, why would Russia want an overly active partner in its Central Asian underbelly? Needless to say, Moscow will not torpedo the transportation project right away in order not to spoil its good relations with Beijing, but it would be premature to expect it to take an active part in it." (Liter.kz, July 27).
Uzbekistan
The press is discussing measures to counter the mounting threat of cyber terrorism. The very low cost of cyber weapons makes them extremely dangerous for technologically advanced nations. Experts maintain that the CIS, which has unified legal standards, should also have a common strategy for combating cyber terrorism. "At present, the interests of all CIS nations have been compromised by the new arc of terrorist activity, running from the Balkans to the Middle East, the Caucasus, Central Asia and Afghanistan. In effect, practically all CIS countries have already been drawn into the orbit of cyber terrorist wars...Using Internet resources, the terrorists are not only exchanging information and recruiting new members, but also conducting active propaganda campaigns. The CIS nations should therefore work out adequate and effective strategic and tactical measures to fight cyber terrorism." (Vesti.uz, July 30).
Kyrgyzstan
On the eve of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's summit this month, the media are analyzing the body's role in the modern world. Analysts believe that the Shanghai alliance may have considerable influence on the balance of geopolitical interests in Central Asia. Moreover, it is likely to grow stronger as the West loses its positions in the region. Analysts note that the success of this scenario will largely depend on Russia's activity in the SCO.
The press is writing that Moscow will have to fight with Beijing in the battle for leadership of the SCO. The media recommend that the Kremlin should concentrate on the risks emanating from China rather than U.S. geopolitical goals in Central Asia. "Russia has exploited Washington's mistakes. By trying to 'advance democracy' in some countries, the United States has reduced its influence to naught by making it clear that its actions can produce nothing but chaos...The Sino-Russian effort to lay special emphasis on the SCO's military wing is gradually shaping a new alliance between the two major Eurasian powers...Any confrontations between them may have an adverse effect on the situation in Central Asia...There are a number of disagreements between Russia and China over SCO economic integration...If Central Asian countries decide that China is more willing to help them with their problems, they will not want to integrate with Moscow." (Obshchestvenny reiting, July 25).
Turkmenistan
Analysts continue to discuss Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov's visit to China, which produced an agreement on the construction of a joint pipeline. They are emphasizing Beijing's apprehensions about Gazprom's dominance on the Turkmen energy market and the link between this agreement and a similar project involving China and Russia that the latter has now suspended. "The recent agreement between Ashkhabad and Moscow to lay the Caspian gas pipeline caused concern in China. Turkmenistan's commitments to step up gas supplies to Russia in 2009 also worry China. Meanwhile, Ashkhabad is convinced that the Russian contract will not affect its gas obligations to third countries. Beijing's flexibility was facilitated by [Moscow's] decision to suspend last year's Sino-Russian memorandum of intention to build a pipeline from Kovykta to China. Today, Russia's priority is to build the Caspian gas pipeline and the Nord Stream [linking Russia and the European Union]. China should therefore not worry about competing for Turkmen fuel." (Gundogar, July 27).
Tajikistan
The press doubts that Russia can guarantee the safety of labor migrants from Central Asia and accuses the Russian media of stirring up hostility towards Tajiks. "The migration problem encompasses many other problems that need to be solved. The heads of Russia and Tajikistan have discussed this issue many times and even reached a special agreement. The document was signed, and a couple of days later the media reported that a group of Russian teenagers had killed a Tajik. Russia itself reacts with indignation [when its nationals in other countries are discriminated against]. It sends the world community into a flutter. We, on the other hand, tolerate this outrage and don't know what to do. Russia has not only signed agreements on labor migrants with Tajikistan, but also with Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. But the situation of migrant workers has not improved." (Nigokh, July 26).
"Our compatriots will not live peacefully in Russia until the Russian media stop referring to Tajiks as animals, drug dealers and beggars, until the word 'Tajik' is no longer a synonym for something filthy and hostile...Russian TV viewers receive the message 'A Tajik is a slave, a creep, you can step on him like a on cockroach, that would be OK.'" (Fakty i Kommentarii, July 26).
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