MOSCOW, August 24 (RIA Novosti) Georgia finds new reason for rapprochement with NATO / Russian politicians seizing Arctic quicker than scientists / Russia to spend $70 billion on aircraft in next 20 years / Ukraine may swap pipelines for Russian gas deposits / VW to be most expensive foreign car assembly project in Russia
Vremya Novostei, Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Georgia finds new reason for rapprochement with NATO
Georgian authorities have decided to use the case of the mysterious missile, which fell from an aircraft over Georgia without exploding on August 6 in an alleged Russian attack, for rapprochement with NATO.
Georgia has announced its readiness to exchange information about the air situation with the NATO member states and partners.
The breakaway Georgian republic of Abkhazia has warned that it will bring down Georgian aircraft that enter its airspace without permission.
On August 21, the Georgian Foreign Ministry said its air defense system registered two infringements of its airspace by Russian aircraft. Two days later, Georgia stepped up consultations with NATO.
Moscow finds the situation ironic. General of the Army Yury Baluyevsky, chief of General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, said: "Our Georgian friends have started hallucinating." He said he doubted the accuracy of the technical data provided by Tbilisi.
Vladimir Zharikhin, deputy director of Russia's CIS Institute, said: "Georgia's statements about the alleged Russian violations of its airspace don't have a leg to stand on."
The expert recalled numerous faults in Georgia's interpretation of the August 6 incident, saying: "The Georgian authorities made all these moves expecting the United States and the international community to believe the provocation."
However, an official from NATO's headquarters in Brussels told daily newspaper Vremya Novostei that it would be premature to discuss the involvement of Georgia in a program of exchanging information on air targets.
Abkhazia believes that the alleged violations of Georgian airspace by Russian aircraft are part of Georgia's campaign to revive the idea of a Russian threat.
Sergei Shamba, the foreign minister of Abkhazia, said: "The more commotion they raise around the alleged Russian aggression against Georgia, the sooner Georgia will join NATO. Tbilisi, which wants to accelerate the process, must prove that it is being threatened all the time."
The minister warned Georgia that its planes flying over Abkhazia without permission would be brought down. He said: "We have stationary [air defense] systems and interceptor aircraft."
Kommersant
Russian politicians seizing Arctic quicker than scientists
Moscow was too hasty in declaring the Arctic Russian territory on the basis of samples recently taken from the seabed by the polar mission led by State Duma Deputy Speaker Artur Chilingarov.
In fact, to back up its claim Russia would need to drill at greater depths, but it lacks the equipment to do this. Moreover, according to the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, Russia may get mere 10%-20% of the Arctic shelf, not the whole of it, as politicians expect.
A source in the Russian Institute of Ocean Studies said its specialists were indeed exploring the Lomonosov Ridge, but that they are nowhere near reaching final conclusions as yet.
"We are conducting research, not publicity. Our latest mission crossed the Arctic ice on the Rossiya nuclear-powered icebreaker and brought the samples we are studying now. As for the bucket of rocks Chilingarov has fetched, we had taken tons of such samples from the seabed before," a research fellow said, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
Dr. Leopold Lobkovsky, deputy director of the geological department at the Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Oceanology, said Chilingarov's team had collected samples for his institute to explore.
"We'll analyze the samples to see what kind of sediment accumulated on the seabed in the past 1,000 years, but this has nothing to do with Russia's claims to the ridge. What they said on TV about the mission was quite a different story. That the samples will help Russia annex the area is utter nonsense," Lobkovsky said.
According to him, the UN may only take "results of deep-water drilling" as iron-clad proof of Russia's right to the Lomonosov Ridge, but the country lacks the equipment for this.
Japan has Chikyu (Earth), a $500 million vessel designed for drilling at depths of up to 7 kilometers, but Russia can hardly afford to rent it. Unlike Japan and the United States, Russia is not participating in the international deep-water drilling program with an annual membership fee of $2 million.
Under the UN Convention, all Russia can count on is 350 miles of the Arctic continental shelf from the northernmost ground point, which both sources confirmed.
Given that the country's current economic zone stretches 200 miles into the Arctic Ocean off its northern coast, and that UN experts are viewing Moscow's claims favorable, Russia will obtain additional 150 miles (around 277 kilometers), but not the whole of the Arctic. Canada, Denmark and the U.S. have rightful claims to their 350-mile stretches of shelf not overlapping with Russia's.
The "war for the Arctic" rhetoric used by politicians therefore sounds far-fetched and exaggerated.
Vedomosti
Russia to spend $70 billion on aircraft in next 20 years
According to estimates made by European aircraft-building giant Airbus, Russian airlines will spend $70 billion in the next 20 years on aircraft purchases. Russian aircraft manufacturers want to receive 75% of orders.
For the first time, the MAKS International Air Show in Zhukovsky near Moscow has born fruit for global aircraft-building corporations. Yesterday, U.S. giant Boeing announced the signing of a contract with Atlant-Soyuz, the Moscow government's official air carrier, for four Boeing-737s, worth a total of nearly $250 million. Both Boeing and Airbus left the previous seven Russian air shows empty-handed.
Airbus is not waiting for new contracts at MAKS, a company spokesman said. However, Airbus believes that Russian air carriers will buy 811 airliners within the next 20 years to fully replace the existing 550 planes, reads Airbus's presentation press release for MAKS.
Russian orders in the next 20 years will amount to about $70 billion, not counting small regional airliners with less than 100 seats. Boeing's new forecasts do not fall far behind - $70 billion worth of orders from Russia and CIS countries in the next 20 years, says its presentation press release for MAKS.
Two years ago, Airbus predicted that Russia would order 600 jet liners worth $49.6 billion within 20 years. At that time, the company was sure that half of them would be Airbus planes. This time, the company refrained from such estimates.
Russia set up its own aircraft-building corporation recently, United Aircraft Corporation (UAC). By 2025, the corporation will sell $250 billion worth of planes in Russia and abroad including military aircraft, said UAC's president Alexei Fyodorov.
According to UAC's estimates, Russian air carriers should order 500-600 airliners out of the necessary 3,000 (with over 100 passenger seats), the corporation's official added.
From the time of the breakup of the U.S.S.R. until last year, the Russian aircraft-building industry had not built more than 10 planes a year. In 2006, Airbus built 398 airliners, while Boeing built 434.
Airbus's forecast is realistic if the Russian market does not face serious problems, similar to the drop in air passenger traffic after the 2001 terrorist attacks in the U.S., said Sergei Koltovich, head of the Aeroflot fleet's planning service.
He is convinced that if Boeing and Airbus share Russian orders, other aircraft manufacturers' sales will be negligible.
Vladimir Davydov, Atlant-Soyuz's director, does not share his misgivings. In his opinion, UAC can win the required share of the market if it makes competitive aircraft.
Gazeta.ru
Ukraine may swap pipelines for Russian gas deposits
Ukraine may offer its natural gas pipelines to Russian gas monopoly Gazprom in return for access to Russian gas. Experts believe the deal will be eventually made, because it suits both sides, but Ukraine may not have sufficient funds to develop the fields.
Ukraine's state-owned gas producer Naftogaz hopes to gain control over several gas deposits in Russia with an aggregate output of 50-55 billion cubic meters annually.
"Together with the 20 billion cubic meters of gas produced in Ukraine, this amount will free the country from its dependence on imported gas," Naftogaz said.
"The issue of a partial swap of oil and gas assets with Russia is being considered," the Ukrainian company said. "No decisions have yet been made by the company or the government, because the issue cannot be decided without amending laws."
This means that its solution depends on the Ukrainian parliament (the Supreme Rada), which will resume sittings only after the early elections, set for September 30.
Although under current Ukrainian law the national gas transport system cannot be handed over to non-residents, this is exactly what Ukraine has offered in a swap agreement with Russia.
Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller and Ukrainian Fuel and Energy Minister Yury Boiko have met several times to discuss Ukraine's involvement in gas production projects in Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said last February that Ukrainian companies could be given access to Russian oil and gas fields only if the sides establish a joint gas transportation consortium.
Analysts view this as the most probable option.
Alexander Razuvayev, the head of market analysis at Russia's Sobinbank, said: "Gazprom has an active asset swap policy, so I think the Russian-Ukrainian deal will go through. However, the issue of money could turn out to be a problem. Ukraine will most likely be offered new gas projects, whose development will entail major outlays. Ukraine doesn't have this kind of money."
Kommersant
VW to be most expensive foreign car assembly project in Russia
Leading German carmaker Volkswagen plans to assemble seven car models at its plant in Russia's Kaluga, completing the line-up of cars, from small hatchbacks to off-roads, marketed in Russia. The plan foresees the manufacture of 150,000 cars a year, but the company said it could double production.
Industry watchers, however, do not see that Volkswagen needs to do this.
According to Friedrich Lenz, managing director of Volkswagen Rus (VW project operator in Kaluga), the plant will be making seven models - three of them Volkswagen, two Skoda, and one car based on the Volkswagen Polo designed especially for the Russian market. Lenz hasn't mentioned the seventh model, but the company earlier announced plans to assemble Touareg off-road vehicles in Kaluga.
A source close to VW said the company was expanding its manufacturing and marketing plans for Russia.
In late July, EBRD announced it would extend VW a record loan of 1 billion euros for the Kaluga project, compared to previously planned investment of 370 million euros.
The source said VW had not yet made a final decision on the scale of the Kaluga project. It may decide on a 500 million-euro project to produce 200,000 cars a year. Even so, it will be the most expensive foreign car manufacturing plant in Russia so far.
Sevastyan Kozitsyn, an analyst at Broker Credit Service brokerage, believes VW does not need to substantially boost production. He predicted that the Russian car market would slump starting from 2011.
"The Kaluga facility will hardly produce more than 100,000-150,000 cars a year," the analyst said. "Its cars are not cheap, and are not best-selling in Russia."
According to the European Business Association, VW ranked 14th in terms of sales in Russia in January through July 2007, selling 16,000 cars.
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