MOSCOW, August 29 (RIA Novosti) No Russian nuclear weapons will be deployed in Belarus / Foreign companies may refuse to participate in Shtokman project / Russia meets France halfway in energy sphere / Russian tycoon to control Magna International / Former businessman is not immune from prosecution
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
No Russian nuclear weapons will be deployed in Belarus
An option for deploying Russian nuclear facilities in Belarus, announced Monday by the Russian ambassador in Minsk, Alexander Surikov, provoked an international outcry. However, the diplomat made another statement, saying he had been misunderstood. Many military experts hold the same view.
Sources of the paper said that the ambassador's words seemed to have been misinterpreted. He did not say that "facilities relating to nuclear weapons" should be stationed on Belarusian territory. To begin with, such facilities are already there. One is the Volga early warning radar near Gantsevichi (in the Baranovichi district) to monitor launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Another is the long-distance high-frequency communication center near Vileika that maintains contact with Russian nuclear submarines on patrol in the oceans.
Secondly, deploying any other facilities relating to nuclear weapons in Belarus makes no sense. Russian strategic Topol-M missiles, both ground- and silo-based, and still operational Voyevoda and Stilet missiles are capable of hitting any target at a range of 10,000 kilometers. There is no need to move them closer to Western borders. Especially if we do not want them to be vulnerable to an air strike.
Also Belarus, like Ukraine and Kazakhstan, signed the Lisbon Protocol in 1992, acceded to the START I treaty and undertook to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as nuclear-free powers. Russia, for its part, assumed an obligation to keep all its nuclear weapons within its territory. To breach these commitments and opt out of these agreements would be to open Pandora's box. It would knock out the entire system of nuclear non-proliferation.
Kommersant
Foreign companies may refuse to participate in Shtokman project
France's Total will share with Gazprom all risks of developing the Shtokman gas condensate deposit in the Barents Sea. It may pay some $800 million for putting up to 300 billion cubic meters of gas on its balance, and receive broad management powers in the project.
All of this is stipulated in the contract. Experts believe that other companies, which will be offered the same conditions in October, but with smaller management powers, may refuse participation.
A Gazprom manager said: "The conditions offered to Total differ significantly from the terms previously offered to other potential participants in the project. I am referring to economic, not political terms."
Total will put on its balance 25% of the 1.22 trillion cubic meters of gas to be produced in the first stage of the project. According to a source familiar with the terms of the contract signed by Gazprom and Total, the French company will pay a certain sum in addition to requisite investment for the right to put the project's reserves on its balance.
Total and Gazprom refuse to discuss the issue of additional payments.
Maxim Shein, an analyst with BrokerCreditService, said: "The average payment for C1+ C2 reserves is $0.1-$2.7 per barrel of oil equivalent. Proceeding from the available data, Total will have to pay $800 million [for its share]. However, there are many unknown quantities in the project, which may mean that the sum to be paid by Total could be $300 million more or less."
The source in Gazprom said these calculations were roughly correct.
Total, which owns a blocking stake in the project, has been given the right to make decisions on a wide range of issues on a par with Gazprom. Other partners, who will be able to buy not more than 24% of the project's shares, will not have this privilege.
The shortlist includes Norway's Statoil and Hydro, which are merging into a united company, and U.S. oil major ConocoPhillips.
Konstantin Batunin, an analyst with Alfa Bank, said foreign companies could refuse to participate in the Shtokman project even though it promises huge revenues.
A source in one of the shortlisted companies confirmed the possibility.
Shein said that Total as a leading producer of liquefied natural gas in the world and one of the largest producers of offshore gas could provide requisite technologies for the Shtokman project.
Gazeta.ru
Russia meets France halfway in energy sphere
French Total has insisted on a reduction in planned hydrocarbon production from the Kharyaga oilfield (Western Siberia) by 500,000 metric tons a year. This is a major concession on the part of the Russian authorities. Experts are convinced that Russia is trying to strengthen its energy cooperation with France by agreeing to this.
By the time the company reaches its peak output in 2013, it will have to produce 3 million metric tons of oil a year, instead of 3.5 million. A new technical plan for developing the Kharyaga field endorsed by the license issuer Rosnedra (the Federal Subsoil Use Agency) also provides for a 95% level of gas utilization at the deposit. The term for implementing the project is left intact - 33 years, though last March Total requested Rosnedra to prolong Kharyaga's operation term to 56 years.
Yekaterina Kravchenko, an expert with BrokerCreditService, regards this as a gesture of goodwill towards a foreign investor, a way to show that despite international criticism of Russia's policy of ousting foreigners from the oil and gas sector, Russia is interested in foreign participation in such projects. "These are good tidings for Total," she said. "The Kharyaga field is difficult to develop, so permission to cut output by 500,000 metric tons is a major concession."
Judging by all the signs, the decision is a kind of hint that Total should share its technologies with Russian partners. The state will hold licenses for the development of deposits, and foreign partners will supply the required technologies and equipment.
Alexander Razuvayev, head of the market analysis department at Sobinbank, a Russian commercial bank, agrees with his colleague that concessions to Total have been made to maintain a favorable investment climate in Russia and demonstrate the authorities' readiness for cooperation with foreign partners. At the same time, Russia will continue to uphold its interests in developing strategic mineral deposits.
Political analysts think that by its actions, Russia is trying to secure the backing of major European companies in strengthening its positions on the European markets. "Russia is cooperating with Germany in the Nord Stream project and has the joint Blue Stream project with Italy," said Dmitry Abzalov, an expert with the Center for Political Studies. "It is France's turn now. Its support, as the ideological leader of the European Union and a big economy, is important for Russia," he added.
Business & Financial Markets
Russian tycoon to control Magna International
Shareholders of Magna International, a leading global supplier of technologically-advanced automotive components, approved the sale of 20 million A-class shares for $1.54 billion to Oleg Deripaska's Russian Machines at an extraordinary shareholders' meeting.
The Canadian company's management succeeded in convincing the minority shareholders of the high business development prospects in Russia, which are well worth the associated risks.
The deal was approved yesterday by a simple majority of Magna's minority shareholders, to be closed in September. The agreement announced in May 2007 stipulates that Russian Machines will acquire a stake in Magna to invest it in a specially established company, NewCo, which will have control over Magna. Frank Stronach, Magna's founder and core shareholder, and a number of the company's top managers will also invest their stakes in NewCo to be able to control the major car-parts manufacturer.
Magna did not disclose the number of shareholders who approved the deal, but a few of them said a day before the meeting that they planned to vote against. Canada's Globe and Mail wrote that the opponents of the deal controlled at least 8% of Magna's Class A shares. They defended their positions, saying the sale of 20% to Russian Machines meant the company would change hands. The approval of the deal in fact brought Magna's Class A shares down 1.59% on NYSEX as of 8-00 pm Moscow time.
Sevastyan Kozitsyn, an analyst with BrokerCreditService, said the market was affected by the Magna-Russian Machines deal because investors thought it was associated with extremely high risks. However, Magna is likely to benefit from it as Russia's car-component market is expected to grow soon, the expert said. Russian Machines will benefit from the deal in a more obvious way as Magna will provide it with access to new technologies and international markets, according to Ivan Bonchev, an automotive industry expert with Ernst & Young.
Vedomosti
Former businessman is not immune from prosecution
Moscow's Tverskoi district court has issued an in absentia arrest warrant for Mikhail Gutseriev. Earlier the billionaire had promised to sell his company Russneft, drop business and politics, and go in for science. Why is the businessman being prosecuted?
Alexander Konovalov, president of the Institute for Strategic Assessments, said: "The affair shows a lot of pre-election aspects. People like it when the rich are deprived of their ill-gotten gains. In terms of effective election PR, the episode looks good."
Stanislav Belkovsky, director of the National Strategy Institute, said: "This is not a war with Gutseriev, it is a war between [Rosneft chairman and deputy chief of staff of the Presidential Executive Office Igor] Sechin and [oligarch Oleg] Deripaska for control over Russneft. Sechin wants it to go to Rosneft. Deripaska is a major Russneft lender, with part of the company's assets bought with his money. If Russneft is absorbed into Rosneft, Deripaska will be $2 billion short. The purpose of Sechin's pressure is to knock Gutseriev out of the running and make him stay abroad. That would put Russneft's management and staff out of action, who are so far lining up behind Deripaska."
Alexander Temerko, a former Yukos deputy chief executive, said: "Rosneft wants to acquire Russneft in the same way it got Yukos. Its stock is frozen and the company is likely to be bankrupted. Pleading the interests of the state, the assets will be bought up at half price at an auction. The attack on Gutseriev is perhaps engineered to scare away all possible buyers. But Gutseriev is lucky: his company is not so large as Yukos, he is not so politically-minded as Khodorkovsky. He was allowed to leave, and his business partners were not arrested as 'hostages.' Deripaska appears to be trying to save face - he is taking his time with a petition to the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service to approve the deal, although the game may prove to be more subtle and include a swap of Russneft for a government stake in Deripaska's aluminum business.
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