MOSCOW, August 31 (RIA Novosti) Cold War rhetoric back?/ Israel blames Russia for conflict with Syria/ Experts question Turkmenistan's ability to meet gas supply obligations/ Alisher Usmanov, Arsenal's new oligarch/ Politkovskaya's murder: roll-call of suspects gets shorter
Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obozreniye #29
Cold War rhetoric back?
The possibility of Russia deploying nuclear weapons in Belarus was the conclusion local and foreign analysts came to in the wake of the interview with Alexander Surikov, Russian ambassador to Minsk. The Russian Foreign Ministry's much delayed reaction confirmed the idea that nuclear weapons were floated as a sort of trial balloon, or rather a stick poked into an anthill.
Surikov's interview aroused unexpected enthusiasm from Russian military experts. Right-wing military officials began to manifest their innermost hopes for expanding Russia's sphere of influence, and moving our military bases closer to NATO's borders. In this sense, Belarus would be much better than Kaliningrad, because bases in Russia's Baltic exclave wouldn't give Russia any "new territory." It looks like they would prefer going back to the Warsaw Pact versus NATO model in Europe.
Poland and the Baltic states will probably be happy to use Surikov's statement as a pretext for confrontation. Lithuania's Defense Minister Juozas Olekas said Russia "planned an ostentatious redeployment of its weapons of mass destruction targeted against Europe" - another piece of wishful thinking.
Cold War rhetoric is obviously back in use. European and U.S. politicians and the mass media will predictably link Russia's CFE suspension, the renewal of strategic aviation flights and the threat of Russian nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus. After that, they will announce as before that Russia's increasingly aggressive policies are forcing them to consolidate NATO and build up the missile defense system in Europe.
It does not really matter what precisely the ambassador said. What matters is that the war hawks still hanker for the days when they played a bigger role. For that, the world should be re-divided once again.
Kommersant, Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Israel blames Russia for conflict with Syria
Israel has put the blame for its recent conflict with Syria, which nearly provoked a war in the Middle East, on Russia.
According to the country's media, Russia allegedly supplied Damascus with intelligence information saying that Israel planned to begin a war against Syria in the summer of 2007. It is claimed that Russia did this to increase the number of contracts for the Russian defense industry.
The Israeli Defense Ministry has not denied this information, which may mean that it considers the media reports as true.
The press service of the Russian Defense Ministry said it would not comment on statements made by foreign officials, "as this is the prerogative of the Foreign Ministry."
The Foreign Ministry refused to comment on these "ridiculous allegations" so as not to attract undue attention to them.
Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST), said he was not surprised by these publications. He said some military officials could provide such information to Syria without the approval of their superiors.
He also said it was unlikely it had been done to increase defense orders, because the contract portfolio of Russia's state-run arms exporter is filled to capacity.
"Syria has ordered what it needs, and will have to stand in line for more, because orders for some armaments are accepted only for 2012," Pukhov said.
Israeli analysts wonder how these allegations have leaked to the press, as all sensitive information that can potentially damage national security must go through censors. In the past, Israeli censors prohibited the publication of reports about the sale of Russian air defense systems to Damascus.
Some experts believe that the damaging information was leaked to the press by the opponents of Israel's rapprochement with Russia. They could be incited to action by the recent decision to cancel the visa regime for Russia, which many in Israel view as a big step towards closer relations.
Vedomosti
Experts question Turkmenistan's ability to meet gas supply obligations
Turkmenistan and China have begun building a pipeline which will annually supply 30 billion cubic meters of gas to China. However, experts doubt that Turkmenistan will be able to fulfill its promise by 2009, when the pipeline is built.
An agreement on the construction of the Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline and gas production on the right bank of the Amu-Darya River with the participation of Chinese companies was signed in April 2006. Under the agreement, Turkmenistan is to supply 30 billion cubic meters of gas a year to China for 30 years starting 2009. The Chinese side was in no hurry to implement the project doubting that Turkmenistan has the required resources.
The gas pipeline construction began on August 30, 2007. Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, Turkmenistan's president, passed a package of documents for exploration and raw material production to Jiang Jiemin, president of the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). "For the first time, Turkmenistan is giving a foreign company the right to produce gas from land deposits," the Turkmen president stressed.
CNPC will produce gas under a production sharing contract (PSC) signed in July. The agreement names the Bagtyyarlyk deposit. According to Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, it will produce 13 billion cubic meters of gas a year to fill the new pipeline. The other 17 billion cubic meters are to be provided by "new deposits," the Turkmen president said without mentioning their names. He only said that gas reserves on the right bank of the Amu-Darya are estimated at 1.3 trillion cubic meters and that this data was confirmed by a Turkmen-Chinese expert group.
The "new deposits" mentioned by the president are, perhaps, the Iolotan and Osman fields on the left bank of the Amu-Darya, said Andrei Grozin from the Institute of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Both fields are relatively new and do not supply gas to Russia, he said.
In the opinion of Konstantin Cherepanov, an analyst with the KIT Finance group, Turkmenistan will not be able to boost gas production as much as to meet its export obligations to Russia, Iran and China, and its own requirements.
According to BP's data, Turkmenistan produced 62 billion cubic meters of gas in 2006. Meanwhile, it promised to supply in 2007-2009 as much as 50 billion cubic meters a year to Russia and 7 billion cubic meters a year to Iran. Turkmenistan's own annual consumption amounts to 17.4 billion cubic meters of gas.
Gazeta.ru, Kommersant
Alisher Usmanov, Arsenal's new oligarch
On August 30, metals and mining mogul Alisher Usmanov, who is rated Russia's 18th richest man and worth an estimated $5.5 billion, bought a substantial part of the Arsenal football club in North London from David Dein, its ex-vice chairman.
Usmanov spent over $150 million (75 million pounds) on a 14.5% stake in the club; and experts said he may see the profitable deal as a way to boost audiences by screening matches to football-crazy fans.
Red and White Holdings Ltd., co-owned by Usmanov and Iranian businessman Farhad Moshiri, acquired the club's shares.
Usmanov is following in the footsteps of Roman Abramovich, the world's 16th wealthiest man, who bought Chelsea football club for 140 million euros in the summer of 2003.
Usmanov is linked to the Kremlin as general director of Gazprominvestholding, the subsidiary that manages the debts of energy giant Gazprom, owns half of holding company Metalloinvest, which set out ambitious plans in June to double its value to $27 billion within four years, and also owns media company Kommersant that includes one of Russia's most influential papers with the same name.
Usmanov, who was elected president of the European Fencing Confederation in 2005, previously headed the Fencing Federation of Russia. His wife, Irina Viner, coaches the Russian select rhythmic gymnastics team.
Vlas Larkin, a partner with Russian Sports Consulting Moscow, said major businessmen were primarily attracted by the impressive profitability of British football clubs.
"First of all, this concerns business projects, which can pay back through capable management," Larkin told the paper.
He said people in the United Kingdom liked businessmen investing in British football clubs.
Vladislav Kochetkov, an analyst with Finam brokerage, said Usmanov had managed to buy a secure asset, and that the purchase would recoup itself in eight to 10 years.
Arsenal managers told the players, who were surprised by the deal, that no reorganization was in sight.
Vremya Novostei, Vedomosti
Politkovskaya's murder: roll-call of suspects gets shorter
The murder investigation of Novaya Gazeta journalist Anna Politkovskaya appears to be running into snags. Two of the suspects earlier arrested have been released under a written pledge not to leave the city, while the dead journalist's colleagues believe the case is being effectively dismantled.
On August 27, Prosecutor-General Yury Chaika reported to President Vladimir Putin that ten men had been arrested on suspicion of involvement. It was stated that all of them would soon face official charges.
But it was learned on Thursday that two of those detained - Alexei Berkin and Oleg Alimov - had been freed from custody. It was later reported that Sergei Khadzhikurbanov, a Moscow security operative, alleged to have taken part in the assassination of Politkovskaya, had an iron cast alibi for the crime (on October 7) because he had been in jail up to the end of 2006.
Lastly, the Moscow military district court officially said on Thursday that the arrest of another suspect - FSB Lieutenant-Colonel Pavel Ryaguzov - was not connected with the "Politkovskaya case." Mere arithmetic shows that instead of ten arrested people the investigation now has only six left.
The Prosecutor-General's Office did not comment on Thursday, pleading secrecy of the investigation, but explained that "professionals are investigating the case, and they know better". "Such a decision does not mean anything. Just as they were released, so they can be rearrested," they said at the Prosecutor General's Office.
Novaya Gazeta's editor-in-chief Sergei Sokolov, commenting on the latest events, said: "To begin with, the crime has not yet been solved, and not all the parties have been arrested. Second, we have carried out our own investigation and its conclusions concur with the investigation results. If the investigator lets some suspects go, he has his reasons. But the resultant fuss is hampering the investigation."
Sokolov believes that the leak about the arrested suspects could be explained either by commercial interests of the information sources or by the deliberate moves of those interested in demolishing the case.
In any case, it is clear that even if the investigation has hit the trail of the murderers and brains behind the crime, it is at the beginning of the road, not the end, and the road is going to be a thorny one. As for a solution to this high-profile killing, it is nowhere near yet.
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