Estonia
The media are avidly quoting R. Muksimov, chairman of the Russian Assembly of Lithuania, as saying that ethnic Russians should rely on the national Baltic elites rather than Russia in solving their problems. "We live in the West - this is a fact... Endless requests for Moscow's help are a thing of the past. Our leaders should be well-versed in the law - only in this case Russia, Europe, and, even more importantly, the national elites will hear our voice." (Molodezh Estonii, August 29).
Experts are criticizing the Estonian authorities for neglecting transit business, which has already sustained serious losses because of fewer shipments from Russia. "Nobody has given serious thought to improving the performance of our railroads and ports. It seems that some people are still hoping that relations with Russia will improve and the level of shipments will be restored. Experts do not see any hope for its restoration." (Postimees, September 4).
Latvia
The media have called tax-evasion charges against the former Russneft president Mikhail Gutseriyev a second Yukos case. Commentators are accusing the Kremlin of using administrative leverage for business objectives. "Gutseriyev has fallen out of favor for buying part of assets from Yukos before its bankruptcy, and thereby depriving the Kremlin of this tempting piece of cake." (Latvijas Avize, August 30). "The Kremlin is planning to include Russneft assets in a big government company, which would be set up on the basis of the Rosneft giant; Russneft was also told to settle its debts... Next it will be made bankrupt and sold at an auction - just like Yukos ... Gutseriyev's arrest warrant confirms that the heads of Russian businesses have to remain loyal to President Putin and his government." (Dienas bizness, August 30).
The media continue commenting on the recent statement of Russian Ambassador to Belarus Alexander Surikov about Russia's potential deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus in response to the U.S. plans to bring ABM elements to Eastern Europe. Analysts believe that Russian nuclear installations in Belarus may become hostage to the permanent Russian-Belarusian squabble over gas deliveries. "Expressing his readiness to host Russian strategic bases, Lukashenko seems to be after other aims. If Moscow does this, it will give Minsk one more lever for exerting pressure on it in the energy field." (Vesti-segodnya, August 29).
The media have focused on the forthcoming presidential elections in Russia. Analysts believe that the administrative leverage will lead a dark horse to power, who will allow Vladimir Putin to continue running the country. "It is quite probable that Russia will take the old road and Vladimir Putin will lead the ruling United Russia party. The head of a party could become more important than the president, prosecutor general and everyone else put together. This is nothing new for Russia... Putin would be in a position to shape national ideology and dictate the terms to all federal and regional officials through this party. Meanwhile, the newly appointed Deputy Prime Minister - Sergei Naryshkin - could become president of Russia... During two terms, Putin has built his vertical power structure, that is, a system of party government. Moreover, if Putin occupies this position, he can always be asked to return as president." (Delfi, August 31).
Belarus
Experts believe that Russia is not likely to deploy its nuclear weapons in Belarus for lack of confidence in its leader. "It is Lukashenko who is vitally interested in them. He has always disapproved of the nuclear arms withdrawn from Belarus... Giving Lukashenko a nuclear arsenal, even if he does not control it directly is like arming a killer without knowing who is on his death list. Nuclear weapons may even be nationalized, for instance, on the grounds that once they belonged to Belarus and it has not received any compensation for their withdrawal." (Site of the United Civil Party, September 3).
Experts are emphasizing Belarus's strategic position in Europe in the context of the growing Russia-West confrontation. "The Belarusian leaders are being increasingly involved in the military confrontation between Russia and the West (on the side of the former, of course) without paying any attention...to the republic's own national interests. With the Soviet Union's break-up, we received a chance never to take part in bloody imperial gambling. But we are not using it... This minor scandal [over the Russian Ambassador's statement] has emphasized once again that Belarus has always been and will remain one of the most strategically important regions in Europe... Either the European Union takes serious care of Belarus's sovereignty and independence, or Russia will take care of Europe." (Telegraf, August 29).
Ukraine
The press is commenting on the idea of Ukrainian Communist leader Pyotr Simonenko to establish a common Black Sea Fleet made up of the Ukrainian and Russian navies. Experts are divided on this score. "The formation of the proposed fleet requires a shift in the balance of political forces in Eastern Europe in Russia's favor... No nation will be able to shake the Euro-Atlantic power center or weaken its influence in Eastern Europe by 2025-2030... If three parties (NATO, Ukraine and Russia) are present, they may come to terms." (Korrespondent.net, August 30).
The press is discussing hydrocarbon supplies to Ukraine. The most critical issue is whether Kiev will cede control over its gas transportation network to Moscow in exchange for access to the assets of Russian gas producers. Most publications are writing about the negative consequences of the debated deal. Commentators have pointed out that Russia's experience of cooperation with foreign companies leaves no grounds for optimism. "If the Russian leaders could throw such a monster as the TNK-BP from a promising deposit, we can only imagine what it can do to our gas lambs." (Oligarch.net, August 31).
Moldova
Pro-Romanian newspapers are critical of Russia's anti-Western foreign policy. "The Kremlin is making life difficult for the West wherever it can - in Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Moldova or Ukraine... In Chisinau, the Kremlin is encouraging the Romano-phobic Communists to sidetrack attention from the strengthening separatist regime in Tiraspol and gain a firm foothold on the Moldovan market to EU's detriment." (Jornal de Chisinau, August 30).
Experts believe that if wine exports to Russia do not resume, the national wine-makers may cease to exist as an industry. Businessmen are skeptical about official statements as regards "the highly promising EU market." They call them a "serious deviation from the truth." "Many sources believe that no other market can compare to what Russia offered to Moldova before - Russia has been a good customer of Moldovan wines for hundreds of years - they have not been replaced by either French or Latin American wines, which have recently appeared in the Russian market." (Press-obozreniye, August 30).
Armenia
The recent meeting of Russian and Armenian presidents in Sochi has caused contradictory comments on the bilateral strategic partnership. "We are not satisfied with the worth of about 200 intergovernmental and interdepartmental documents and agreements signed after the bilateral treaty because they have done nothing to involve Armenia in the North-South transit projects... Russia wants to keep Armenia's independence at bay. It wants to lay its hands on all Armenian strategic industries and have a chance to say anytime, "Now go and continue your complementary policy." (Novoye vremya, August 30). "Russia is pursuing long-term strategic goals in Armenia, and wants to supplement military-political cooperation with it with a broader economic presence. What do we stand to lose? We are consolidating our defenses and building up our economic potential. Why are Armenian-Russian relations viewed as an attempt of one side to impose its will on the other, and almost as evidence of Armenia's de facto lost independence?" (Hayots Ashkhar, August 29).
Georgia
The opposition has offered its own explanation for numerous Georgian-Russian incidents. "It is quite possible that there is an organization that has units in Moscow and Tbilisi; its aim is to put Russian-Georgian relations into a stalemate... Any talk about a possible meeting between the presidents [of Russia and Georgia] is followed by some incident: A week before the meeting is supposed to take place a bomb is found in a river, an aircraft violates the air space and so on. Neither Russia nor Georgia would be able to stage such incidents single-handedly - there must be a force directed from one and the same center. There is a network of agents in very high-ranking echelons of power ... Both Russia and Georgia took part in dropping the bomb." (Mteli kvira, September 3).
The media are expecting another scandal linked with the participation of Abkhazians and South Ossetians in the forthcoming parliamentary elections in Russia. "It is quite possible that Russian citizens living in Georgia's separatist regions will wish to cast their votes... in the Russian parliamentary elections... Almost 80% of people residing in Georgia's conflict areas are Russian citizens." (Rezonansi, September 1).
Azerbaijan
Commentators are describing Moscow's statement about giving up the Gabala radar in Azerbaijan as a political bluff designed to influence the U.S. position on missile defenses in Europe. "In the next few years, Russia is not going to give up the Gabala radar, the press was told by representatives of the Russian Space Force. In this way, they refuted some publications quoting the space force commander Vladimir Popovkin as saying that the Russian military are ceding the radar to Washington and may leave it soon... Agreeing to the U.S. presence at Gabala, Moscow primarily hoped to exchange access to the Gabala and Armavir radars for the U.S. renunciation of missile defense deployment in Europe. But it failed to receive what could be described as the main bonus - Washington will never discuss the level of its cooperation with Poland, the Czech Republic or Azerbaijan in negotiations with Moscow." (Ekho, August 31). "There is no point in taking seriously the space force commander's words about such revolutionary changes as withdrawal of Russian troops and their replacement with American soldiers in the course of one week... His statement does not reflect the official Russian position." (Zerkalo, August 29).
Kazakhstan
The press is writing that Nursultan Nazarbayev's appeal to elect Vladimir Putin for a third term has caused a generally positive response in all strata of the Russian public. Numerous supporters of this idea believe that a potentially weak successor may lead Russia to disaster. "If we do not want to follow the old we-tried-our-best-you-know-the-rest logic, we should keep Putin as president. At least, we know what to expect from him. Moreover, the Russians are not against democracy, as some foreigners may think. We simply have a deep-seated fear that we may get some non-entity in the presidential chair. Maybe this explains why more Russian intellectuals support the Kazakh president's proposal than oppose it." (Zhas Alash, August 30).
Analysts call Tajikistan the main security threat for the entire Central Asia. "In Tajikistan, government ideology rejects the historic integrity of neighboring Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Sooner or later, it may lead to an international conflict. If this happens, and considering the presence of the still unsafe Afghanistan next door, the area around Kazakhstan's southern borders may well turn into a replica of the Balkans in the era of inter-ethnic and religious strife." (Zona.kz, August 29).
Uzbekistan
The press is very negative of Moscow's decision to deport Uzbek citizen Murad Dzhurayev, who is charged at home with setting up illegal religious organizations. Human rights champions regard this decision as another violation of international legal standards. "The record speed with which this decision was made makes one seriously doubt that it was justified... The Russian authorities are trying to put Dzhurayev into the Uzbek hands as soon as possible. This is the same case... that took place a year ago when another Uzbek citizen, Rustam Muminov, was illegally deported from Russia." (Musulmansky Uzbekistan, September 1).
Kyrgyzstan
Experts believe that the proposals made by certain politicians to give the Russian language official status can weaken the position of the Kyrgyz language in the country. "The great Russian language does not need Kyrgyzstan's flattery...the Russian language can find its own way and its place in the modern world...It will remain great without our support." (Kyrgyz Tuusu, August 31).
Turkmenistan
Analysts think that procrastination in signing the agreement between Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan on the construction of the Caspian gas pipeline threatens to damage President Putin's international image. They also highlight Turkmen president's growing interest in cooperation with China. "The required documents are not ready yet... As the Caspian pipeline is a representative project, which confirms Russia's claims to Central Asian gas potential, the situation seems quite unpleasant. The image bonuses that Vladimir Putin got in May when, in the face of the astonished Europe and China, he announced a new project to export 30 billion cubic meters of gas through Russia, are being lost as quickly as the speed of formalizing political agreements. As a result, instead of signing a gas agreement with Russia and Kazakhstan, the Turkmen television broadcasted Mr. Berdymukhammedov giving the green light to the competitive Chinese gas project." (Turkmenia. info, August 31).
Tajikistan
The opposition press sees the latest moves of the government to limit Russian economic presence in Tajikistan as signs of a change in the country's foreign policy in favor of the United States. "Tajikistan's government is pushing Russia out of the republic's energy market. Dushanbe has recently terminated the agreement on the construction of the Rogunskaya hydroelectric power plant with the Russian company RusAl, which represented Moscow's interests in this project. At the same time the Tajik state aluminum company Talco filed a suit against RusAl in a British arbitration court and claimed compensation of several hundred million dollars. In the meantime, Washington's interest in Tajikistan has significantly increased. Analysts think that the United States will try to get back its political and financial investments in the country as quick as possible. It is in Washington's interests to bind the republic with Afghanistan and Pakistan." (Nachot, August 30).
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