MOSCOW, September 12 (RIA Novosti) Last government reshuffle before parliamentary elections may start soon / New prime minister to be appointed soon - Kremlin source / Europe and Russia teetering on brink of investment war / Gazprom shortlists five companies to develop Shtokman deposit / Classified Russian submarine surfaces in Internet
Kommersant
Last government reshuffle before parliamentary elections may start soon
Semyon Vainshtok, president of Russian oil pipeline monopoly Transneft, is leaving his company to head an Olympic state corporation at President Vladimir Putin's proposal. The fact that a key state manager is leaving the oil sector may mean the beginning of the final pre-election reshuffles in state structures.
Vainshtok has never been officially reprimanded since the debate about the route of the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline in vicinity of Lake Baikal.
However, according to unofficial reports, Transneft's chief constantly conflicted with the security officials in the presidential administration, in particular with Igor Sechin, chairman of the board of directors of Russian state-run oil company Rosneft.
According to the sources, which claim to be familiar with the situation, the tension was caused by Vainshtok's unwillingness to have representatives of the security agencies in his team and submit information on export contracts of Russian oil companies.
At a first glance, Vainshtok's new job appears to be as politically responsible as his previous post. The Olympic state corporation to be headed by him will administer funds comparable with Transneft's budget. At the initial stage, its capital will amount to 185.8 billion rubles ($7.31million). The draft project for establishing the state corporation will be submitted to the State Duma, the Russian parliament's lower house, by September 14.
In 2008, Transneft's annual investment program will amount to about 50 billion rubles (about $2 billion) without the ESPO project (the overall cost of the program is $11.2 billion). It has yet to be decided, perhaps through political wrangling, who will control the key post in the Russian oil sector, and the consequence of these conflicts may be much more serious that the problems related to the Sochi Olympics.
Vainshtok's removal from his post coincided with the peak of discussions about a partial or complete reshuffle in the Russian government projected for the near future. It is being openly discussed how this might happen and under which scenario.
Thus, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy prime minister, suggested on September 11, 2007 that the government reshuffle should be postponed until the 2008 presidential election, but he also stressed that this was his "personal point of view."
Vedomosti
New prime minister to be appointed soon - Kremlin source
The Kremlin, the Russian government and the business community are buzzing with rumors of Sergei Ivanov's upcoming appointment as Russia's prime minister. The first deputy premier may be promoted soon, as the decision is as good as made, a source close to the Presidential Executive Office said Tuesday.
A top investment banker and high-ranking Kremlin source confirmed the news, and said Ivanov's influence has been growing since mid-summer. Many would rather support him as he is older and better-prepared for the job than the other hopeful, Dmitry Medvedev.
When asked about the rumors of an upcoming cabinet reshuffle, Medvedev replied with a joke: "Any government in any place on the globe may expect that any day. Let's wait and see."
True, President Putin has been seen in Ivanov's company much more often than in Medvedev's lately. The same trend can be traced in the media since the summer months: Putin and Ivanov have been mentioned together 50% more often than Putin and Medvedev, according to an estimate by Medialogia, a research company.
Ivanov's greater influence on current policies can be attributed to the establishment of state industrial corporations (in nanotechnology, aircraft-manufacturing and shipbuilding), according to Yevgeny Gavrilenkov, chief economist with investment company Troika Dialog.
All the talk about Ivanov's upcoming promotion to prime minister could be a way of preparing the public for his taking one of the top government posts, another Kremlin source suggested. To appoint Ivanov as prime minister could be one of the possible scenarios.
But Putin effectively curbs information leaks, according to political scientist Dmitry Badovsky. What is happening now just reflects the individuals within the government vying for the post, he said.
The emerging Russian model of "regulated capitalism" appears too dependent on rumors, Vedomosti wrote today. In order to succeed, businesspeople have to make good guesses about the government's next acquisition of assets, which, in turn, will or will not depend on certain resignations and appointments. The latter are most difficult to forecast, so government officials and company heads just try to stay put until one or more of the circulating rumors prove true.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Europe and Russia teetering on brink of investment war
In the next six months, Moscow's relations with its European partners are likely to sharpen. This follows from the latest remarks by high-ranking EU officials who are calling for a harsher approach to Russia. Analysts advise Russia not to react, so as not to play into the hands of Europe's Russia-haters.
The EU-Russia summit scheduled for late October in Portugal is described as "transitional," because Russia and the European Union are entering a period of political uncertainty: Russia is launching an election campaign, while Europe is busy preparing an institutional reform. However, the word "transitional" can also apply to the whole current stage in relations between Russia and the EU. The Europeans are concerned not only about Russia's economic policy, but also its departure from democracy, the resumption of patrol flights by Russian long-range bombers, and Moscow's stance on some international issues (Kosovo and conflicts on the territory of the former U.S.S.R.).
Russia, too, is ready to exert pressure on Europe. At any rate, the Russian leadership's rhetoric shows this clearly. Aside from the possibility of restricting foreign investment, as the Russian president said in Abu Dhabi recently, Moscow also holds an energy trump card - Europe's dependence on Russian gas and oil supplies. In addition, Russia can block off its Western partners' foreign policy initiatives, above all independence for Kosovo.
It is in Russia's interests now not to reply to the EU in any way, because the Union has not yet finally made up its mind how to build its relations with Moscow, said Natalia Leshchenko, an analyst with London-based consultancy Global Insight. France and Germany are in principle in favor of this type of relations. Poland's approach is characterized by trade conflicts with Russia. The Scandinavian countries have no clear-cut positions, nor do Spain or Portugal. Britain, in view of the well-known bilateral problems with Russia, will be advocating a cautious approach.
In the expert's view, the Russian government would do well not to boost the country's aggressive image, but on the contrary to keep back from playing into the hands of Russia-haters and European bureaucrats. If Russia desists from an offensive, there will be fewer occasions for an anti-Russian position to consolidate in the EU, she said in conclusion.
Gazeta.ru
Gazprom shortlists five companies to develop Shtokman deposit
Energy giant Gazprom has shortlisted five companies wishing to develop the Shtokman gas condensate deposit in the Barents Sea, north Russia, and is expected to choose a Norwegian partner this September.
The involvement of U.S. companies will be linked to Washington position on Moscow's accession to the World Trade Organization.
In July, Gazprom and French oil and gas giant Total signed an agreement establishing the company Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), which operates the Shtokman deposit.
Although analysts said the French company was satisfied with the price concept, Gazprom will buy all gas produced by Total.
Previously, Gazprom's deputy CEO Alexander Ananenkov said foreign investors would help implement the first stage of the Shtokman project stipulating production of 23.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year and initial supplies starting from 2013.
Shelf development has now commenced in order to meet the deadline. Under the Gazprom-Total agreement, SPV will own all infrastructure for 25 years after the commissioning of the deposit.
But it appears that Gazprom could buy its partners' stakes before the deadline expires.
Political experts said foreign investors would, nonetheless, be eager to cooperate.
Alexei Makarkin, deputy head of the Center for Political Technologies, said the situation on the global oil and gas market compelled foreign partners to participate regardless of initial terms dictated by Moscow.
Analysts said U.S. and Norwegian companies would be chosen. Although Norway has state-of-the-art technology for developing the continental shelf, the United States is a promising gas buyer.
According to Makarkin, the choice of partner will depend on the political situation, rather than investment or technical aspects.
"The position of Washington on Russia's accession to the WTO will influence Moscow's decision," he told the paper.
Kommersant
Classified Russian submarine surfaces in Internet
The authorities of the town of Sarov, in Russia's Nizhny Novgorod Region, have inadvertently declassified the latest project of a Russian submarine by posting an interview with its commander on their website. The unprecedentedly tight secrecy surrounding the boat suggests we have here a unique experiment by Russian scientists and military officers.
On September 6, Sarov's official site carried a report about a visit to the town by Sarov submarine commander Sergei Kroshkin. The web page mentioned the project number - 20120 - and cited the boat's characteristics. On September 11, the news disappeared from the site, but had already been reprinted in local media.
The secrecy over the new project has caused a surprise - in recent years everything relating to shipbuilding has been widely covered in the media. Officials readily shared with journalists the numbers of projects, names and other particulars.
News broke on Wednesday that the experimental Project 20120 was designed to test a unique technology - installation on a diesel submarine of a nuclear reactor as an auxiliary power plant. Such experiments were staged back in Soviet times.
Several countries are engaged in upgrading their diesel submarines to obtain the same sea endurance as costly nuclear submarines. Germany leads the field here. Since 2000 it has been building Project 212A submarines with non-air breathing engines. These submarines are capable of staying under water for 20 days (common-type Diesel submarines qualify for 4-5 days).
Perhaps Russian scientists have decided to respond to the challenge by reopening their mini-reactor program for diesel boats.
Story No. 2: Project 20120 is a test bed for the latest nuclear reactor of the Afrikantov Experimental Design Bureau of Engineering, which was first mentioned in the media in February 2007. A Nizhny Novgorod Delovaya Gazeta article said that in 2006 the Bureau had "developed a new submarine called Kalitka, which mounted a fundamentally new steam-generating plant, KTP-7I Fenix." It is not ruled out that the enigmatic Project 20120 dates from the no less mysterious Kalitka project.
The Bureau, when asked about the project, showed no surprise. But Yevgeny Kusmartsev, an aide to the concern's director, told a Kommersant correspondent that "submarine reactors are of interest to U.S. intelligence, not you," and suggested the paper seek information from the press service of the Russian Agency for Nuclear Power. The agency, however, declined to comment.
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