It is not merely possible-it is quite probable, as anyone with a basic grasp of arithmetic can see.
The latest opinion polls, following President Vladimir Putin's sensational address to the United Russia party congress, show a 6% jump in that party's popularity. This would give it slightly more than half the votes cast - and thus an absolute majority - in the upcoming parliamentary election. The same polls suggest that none of the other parties will cross the 7% threshold needed to take seats in the State Duma.
The president heads United Russia's ticket. The public has not yet grasped the full implications of this. A specific political arrangement awaits Russia when everyone sees what is on. The president's public approval rating currently hovers around 70%. Now, Putin is Putin, whether federal president or a party leader with no (official) party affiliation. To expect his rating to drop below 70% in any part of the country is preposterous. The president's endorsement thus brings his shining popularity to United Russia. The party, for its part, has far less brilliant ratings, and may tarnish, rather than complement, his own glory. Has Putin become a crutch for the party that ought to be supporting him?
It is true that United Russia probably needs Putin more than Putin needs United Russia. However, the president's rating is unlikely to be damaged. Putin's popularity is practically bulletproof - no matter what the shortcomings of the party he chooses to associate himself with. His supporters are to be found amongst Communists, Liberal Democrats, in A Just Russia party, and elsewhere.
Provincial governors will do everything they can for a United Russia victory. If they did not, they would not be able to meet the gaze of the president who confides in them. Regional election HQ bosses will blush before party leader Boris Gryzlov if United Russia does not achieve a landslide. Imagine the plight of party functionaries after they gave a standing ovation to the president as he announced he would lead the ticket!
If everybody who likes Putin votes for United Russia, the other parties will be doomed. The president's party will take 70% of the vote, and an aggregate 10% or so will go to outsiders. Only three other parties will have a chance of securing seats in the State Duma - A Just Russia, the Communists and the Liberal Democrats. At least one of them will not make it-20% does not divide by 7.
Who will fall by the wayside? "Bad Vlad" Zhirinovsky, the Liberal Democrat leader, is an artistic man who brings a gaudy comedy to the drab routine of politics.
Sergei Mironov, leader of A Just Russia, will be consigned to political history if his projects fail yet again. The Kremlin will hardly put up with that. This simple logic tells us these two parties will be in parliament.
Will the Communists be thrown overboard?
This might sound implausible-but it might not be a national tragedy. The Red electorate can easily find homes elsewhere. The poor and downtrodden will find succor with A Just Russia's social democratic slant. The emotionally dissatisfied will be welcome under Zhirinovsky's wing. As for ideology, the only thing that sets the Communist Party apart from its left-wing rivals, it now interests only a handful of diehards.
A non-parliamentary party is doomed to oblivion in Russia. Thus, if the Communists are obliterated from the political map, the stubborn remnants of the nation's Soviet past will vanish with them. Will Lenin's Mausoleum survive, I wonder? At best, the ziggurat in Red Square will remain as just another architectural monument. As to the mummy inside, it may finally be buried according to Lenin's testament-better late than never.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
