MOSCOW, October 24 (RIA Novosti) Japan could compromise on Southern Kurils/ Russia launches early-warning satellite/ Russia unlikely to increase diesel fuel deliveries to Europe/ Russian tourists will now go to France and Malta, not Britain/ Only 19% of Russians favor western democracy - social survey
Kommersant
Japan could compromise on Southern Kurils
It appeared that the Japanese hosts did not want to press Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov too hard during his short visit to Tokyo about the long-standing territorial dispute Tuesday. Moreover, there have been rumors that Japan has started angling for a compromise on the Southern Kurils after [President Vladimir] Putin steps down.
The Japanese have certainly heeded the Russian officials' repeated statements that they would be just as willing to discuss the Kurils issue after next year's presidential elections. Experts in Tokyo made an immediate connection with the talk of Putin's plans to continue running the country even after his term ends. A well-known Japanese expert on Russia is convinced Putin "will become "a Russian Deng Xiaoping" and will certainly resolve the territorial issue."
Reliable sources have it that Tokyo has informally proposed to Moscow a huge concession (or at least something it sees as such) in the island dispute. It proposed to revert to the Joint Declaration of 1956, in which [Soviet leader] Nikita Khrushchev promised to give up to Japan the smaller part of the Kurils, including Shikotan and an adjacent uninhabited range which the Japanese know as Habomai, as a goodwill gesture after the peace treaty is signed.
A few years ago, Putin officially suggested using that declaration as the underlying document for the talks. Tokyo gave it no heed then, as it was insisting on the "return" of the whole Kuril Range.
At present, the sources said, Japan suggests that it sign the peace treaty after receiving Shikotan and Habomai, however documenting the disputed status of the two remaining islands, Kunashir and Iturup, the most densely populated and economically developed ones. Moscow, in turn, will have to agree to continue the negotiations on the two islands' legal status even after the peace treaty is signed.
However, the sources added, Japan has only sent out a feeler, which is still a long way to an official proposal.
Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov who accompanied Lavrov on his visit to Tokyo said he knew nothing of the Japanese initiative.
It is clear that right now no compromise can be discussed between Moscow and Tokyo. The pre-election period in Russia is only one reason; the other is that Moscow has no motivation to make territorial concessions.
Gazeta.ru
Russia launches early-warning satellite
The Russian Defense Ministry has orbited an obsolete Lavochkin US-KS (Oko - Eye) elliptical-orbit early-warning satellite and will not receive up-to-date spacecraft before 2009.
An expert who wished to remain anonymous said the North-American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) had calculated initial orbit parameters, namely, apogee: 39,000 km; perigee: 565 km; inclination: 62.8 degrees and orbital period: 702 minutes.
Last year, the national Space Forces planned to launch two elliptical-orbit early-warning satellites and one geostationary spacecraft for scanning potential enemy territory for up to 12 hours a day. However, only one spacecraft was orbited due to the lack of funding. Russia has therefore just two satellites operating in the series.
But Moscow needs nine elliptical-orbit satellites and at least one geostationary spacecraft. In all, 10 satellites had been in operation from 1987 to 1996.
Experts said Russian early-warning satellites could only detect an all-out missile strike, and that the latest Oko launch would not solve the problem.
The Space Forces have been planning to orbit the more advanced EKS satellites for a long time. Two years ago, the Defense Ministry wanted to place one of them in an elliptical orbit in June-December 2007 and to deploy a geostationary satellite in June-December 2009, respectively.
But satellite developer Kometa Central Research Institute promises to launch initial tests only in 2009.
Kommersant
Russia unlikely to increase diesel fuel deliveries to Europe
European oil producing and processing companies forecast a future major shortage of diesel fuel. They hope Russia will help them solve the problem.
But foreign and Russian experts say that Russian oil companies are unlikely to seriously increase the output of diesel fuel.
Wood MacKenzie, which provides a unique range of consulting services and research products to the energy and life science industries, said the shortage of diesel fuel would grow nearly fourfold by 2020, to 60 million metric tons from 17 million metric tons in 2006.
According to Panos Cavoulacos, head of Hellenic Petroleum, a leader in the Greek energy sector and in Southeast Europe, 30% of European vehicles have diesel engines now.
The former Soviet countries, mainly Russia, supply the bulk of diesel fuel to Europe. Russia exports about 25 million metric tons.
Isabelle Muller, Secretary General of the European Petroleum Industry Association (Europia), believes that Russia will double its diesel fuel supplies by 2030.
Other analysts said CIS countries would increase their diesel fuel deliveries to Europe by 30 million metric tons by 2020.
However, only 15% of Russian diesel fuel supplied to Europe satisfies the Euro-4 standards, Muller said. The rest undergo further conversion at European plants.
Andrei Fyodorov, an analyst with Alfa Bank, said that Russia could only partly make up for the shortage of diesel fuel in Europe.
"Diesel fuel production is not a priority goal in Russia now, although the consumption of petrol and diesel fuel is expected to grow substantially here in the future," he said. "When this happens, producers will prefer to supply the domestic market rather than export it. Besides, not all Russian refineries produce European-standard fuel."
Fyodorov said it is not profitable for Russian companies to increase the production of diesel fuel, as their plants are operating under an established scheme geared to a specific quality of oil. An increased production of all types of fuel without large-scale modernization would result in the marketing of a large amount of fuel oil, which is not in demand.
Karl Nietvelt, a senior corporate ratings analyst at Standard & Poor's, said that Russian companies have no motivation for increasing the level of conversion, because the export duty on fuel oil is 22% and on diesel fuel, 42%.
Mikhail Perfilov, director for business development at the Russian office of Argus Media, a leading provider of price assessments, business intelligence and market data on the global oil, gas, electricity, coal, emissions and transportation industries, said that Russian companies are afraid to invest in new refineries because of ongoing "changes in the structure of ownership in the oil sector."
Novye Izvestia
Russian tourists will now go to France and Malta, not Britain
The British Embassy in Russia has announced it is introducing biometric visas from November 8 for all those wishing to visit the U.K. The ground rules will come into effect less than two months before New Year. The first to be upset were tourist companies, which stated sadly that now the number of Russians wanting to spend their holidays on the British Isles could be down by around 40%.
The move will hit tourists hardest from the Russian regions (some tour operators have up to 70% of their client base there). They will have to make special visits to British visa centers in Moscow, St. Petersburg or Yekaterinburg to have their biometric data recorded.
The visa itself will be issued (or not) after checks have been carried out. Irina Tyurina, a spokeswoman for the Russian Union of the Travel Industry, hastened to say that many Russians from the provinces would not pay for a ticket to Moscow for a visa without having guarantees of obtaining one.
As it is, the British visa is one of the costliest - today it requires 3,280 rubles ($132) for a six-month multi-entry visa. Diplomats could only "express regret." Equally, Ambassador Anthony Brenton sincerely regretted the impossibility of pushing the date back.
The "delay" could, incidentally, come from the other side and complicate things further. The point is that Russia's competent authorities have not yet issued the British with licenses for the equipment to process biometric data. The British hope they will get these licenses by November and be able to start training their personnel.
"The fall in tourist numbers to Britain will begin from November 8 and last for no less than six months, while bus tours to that country will soon 'die out'," the head of one of the Russian tour companies remarked gloomily.
"Instead of Britain, our clients will travel to France and Malta, leaving us all in the red," his colleague from the Russian Association of Tour Operators said sadly.
Vedomosti
Only 19% of Russians favor western democracy - social survey
The artificial control on food prices and non-alternative elections are approved by those Russians who would prefer a Soviet-style political system and a partially planned economy.
When asked which political system they would prefer, most respondents (35% out of 1,600 people surveyed by the Levada Center on October 12-15) chose the Soviet system, 27% liked the present system, and 19% preferred western democracy.
The survey results were nearly the same a year ago, but over the past year the number of advocates of a mixed economy (with the elements of both plan-based and market economies) has increased from 44% to 47%. Another 24% would prefer a return to the plan-based economy. Some 60% do not think that privatization of industrial enterprises was necessary in Russia, and 52% believe that their preferences have no effect on the country's political and economic life.
Asked for the first time whether Russia needed the State Duma, the Russian parliament's lower house, 48% of the respondents answered in the affirmative, while 37% think that Russia could do well with presidential decrees, without the legislature.
In 2003-2004, some 19%-20% of the respondents wanted to see Russia a market economy; in 2005, when some sectors began to be placed under state control, their number dropped to 15%. Most people would choose a medium version, combining freedom of economic activity with the absence of corrupt practices, though this is a mythical scenario, Alexei Grazhdankin, the Levada Center's deputy director, said with regret.
"The Soviet epoch is not just communist ideals but a period of stability for many Russians," said Alexander Muzafarov, a leading analyst with the Bashkirova and Partners research company.
People are ready to exchange their political freedoms for state economic guarantees; they need a political and economic system similar to the one we had in the Gorbachev perestroika period, a system similar to the Soviet one but allowing greater economic freedom, Grazhdankin said in conclusion.
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