MOSCOW, October 25 (RIA Novosti) Russia waits for Washington's official offer on ABM / Germany hinders Nord Stream construction / Swiss partner upstages BasEl in drive for Russneft / Future of GLONASS system depends on Kazakhstan / Yukos affair: easier to begin than to end
Gazeta.ru, Trud
Russia waits for Washington's official offer on ABM
President George W. Bush, following on from his Defense Secretary Robert Gates, has hinted that an Iran-for-ABM deal with Russia is quite possible. But the Kremlin is wary of the idea, even though it has been described here as a step in the right direction.
The United States plans to deploy antimissiles in Poland and an early warning radar in the Czech Republic, allegedly to ward off possible missile attacks from Iran and North Korea.
However, Moscow believes that the establishment of the ballistic missile shield in Europe will disrupt the strategic balance of forces and threaten Russia's security.
Washington has rejected the alternative Russian proposal of using the Gabala radar in Azerbaijan. It will continue to pressurize Iran into curtailing its uranium enrichment program, and will also increase pressure on Russia over the European ABM system.
Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the Russian parliament's international affairs committee, said yesterday that the Pentagon chief's statement was only the first step in the right direction, although the call for cooperation in this sphere "is not clear or concrete."
The Russian Foreign Ministry reacted in the same spirit, saying that it would wait for an official offer.
Colonel General Leonid Ivashov, a respected military expert, warned: "Not a single American word in the sphere of strategic stability can be trusted."
There are other opinions, though.
Major General Pavel Zolotarev, deputy director of the Moscow-based Institute of U.S. and Canadian Studies, said: "Gates' statements should be considered against the backdrop of missile defense consultations underway between the foreign and defense ministers of Russia and the United States. Developments at such consultations are usually kept secret, although what Gates said partly covers the issue."
"Both sides agree that nuclear proliferation has become uncontrollable," he said. "Every country has the right to use an ABM umbrella to protect itself from the threat. The United States can do it any way it chooses, provided this does not pose a potential threat to Russia."
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Germany hinders Nord Stream construction
After Estonia refused to allow the study of its seabed for a possible change in the route of the North-European gas pipeline (Nord Stream), Germany has put up some unexpected obstacles.
A Gazprom Export spokesman said that the problems are connected with German legislation envisaging access to the pipe for third parties. Despite his dramatic statement, experts are convinced that the parties concerned will reach a compromise.
According to Sergei Komlev, head of the Gazprom Export department, the implementation of the project may be hindered by problems connected with the construction of two branch pipes - Opal and Nel - in Germany. These branch pipes must link Nord Stream to German gas distribution networks.
"Now Germany's E.On has submitted another application for permission to build these pipes, as no other company will build them: they are only for Gazprom's gas," Komlev said. At the same time, he stressed that Gazprom had signed contracts to supply nearly all gas via Nord Stream. Experts think the matter will be settled.
Timur Khairullin, a senior analyst with the Antanta Capital investment company, is sure that Germany, being the most interested party, will mitigate its position and try to apply political pressure on Estonia and Finland in order to settle the issue of the pipeline route.
"At present, the main problem is to find an interested company in order to observe all formalities. I do not think it will be very difficult," the analyst said.
There is little agreement on the choice between the two routes - Nord Stream or the second line of the Yamal-Europe pipeline, the possible construction of which was discussed in Minsk recently, said Russian Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov.
"Nord Stream is a very costly project. The construction of the second line of the Yamal-Europe pipeline will be much cheaper," said Ivan Andriyevsky, managing partner with 2K Audit-Business Consultations. However, Nord Stream's task is to guarantee safe supplies and this cannot be ensured now by any land pipeline.
"No one has yet tried to economically substantiate the advantages of the land route," Khairullin said "The chances that Russia will give up Nord Stream in favor of the Yamal-Europe land pipeline are nil: there are contracts for all gas supplies via Nord Stream, so no other versions are really possible."
Business & Financial Markets, Kommersant
Swiss partner upstages BasEl in drive for Russneft
The Swiss-based Glencore company is reported to have applied to the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service (FAS) to buy three Russneft subsidiaries. Experts believe foreigners can enter Russia's oil and gas sector only through a partnership with state companies.
Konstantin Batunin, an Alfa-Bank analyst, estimates the total worth of the three companies sought by Glencore as $800 million.
Oleg Deripaska's Basic Element was considered to be Glencore's only rival to purchase Russneft. Basic Element's foreign-registered Continental Group Management Ltd, has sent an application to the FAS to purchase the stock of offshore companies controlling Russneft.
News that Lakshmi Mittal, co-owner of Arcelor Mittal, is also eyeing the company's shares has not yet been officially confirmed.
Russneft and Glencore have a long relationship. Mikhail Gutseriyev, ex-head of the oil company, who is now on a global wanted list, set up Russneft with the support of the Swiss trader. In the middle of the year his debt to Glencore was more than 1 billion euros.
BasEl is not commenting if the deal with Gutseriyev provided for the sale of three subsidiaries or stakes in them to Glencore. But rumors that the Swiss trader, which is also a long-time partner of Deripaska (they, for example, jointly own the Rusal amalgamated company), first circulated in August.
However, BasEl gives assurances that it learned of Glencore's desire from the press, and are buying Russneft for themselves, not for resale.
However, one of the sources said that the trader's intentions had been agreed with Deripaska.
Maxim Shein, an analyst with BrokerCreditService, is also sure of that.
"Deripaska and Glencore are long-time partners, and will have to work together in Russneft," the expert said, recalling that the company is contracted to export some of the produced crude via Glencore.
In the opinion of Timur Khairullin, an analyst with Antanta Capital, a foreign participant may enter the Russian oil and gas sector only through a partnership with state companies. Neither Rosneft nor Gazprom Neft is showing an open interest. But market players believe that sooner or later Russneft will fall into the hands of one of the state companies.
"Rosneft or Gazprom will be Russneft's beneficiary," said Yury Golban, a Sobinbank analyst.
Kommersant
Future of GLONASS system depends on Kazakhstan
On September 6, a Russian Proton-M launch vehicle carrying the Japanese JCSat-11 telecommunications satellite malfunctioned after liftoff and crashed in Kazakhstan, a Central Asian republic.
Although Kazakhstan has authorized subsequent Proton launches from its Baikonur space center, Moscow and Astana will have to negotiate damage payments for the September 6 disaster.
In early October, Nurlan Nigmatulin, the head of the Karaganda Region in Kazakhstan, estimated damages at 7.33 million tenge ($60.6 million). However, the Russian Space Agency said this sum had been exaggerated.
A Russian delegate who took part in talks with Kazakhstan said the Russian side had conducted some clean-up operations at its own expense, and that it had removed all the contaminated soil.
Moscow and Astana are to agree on damage payments by December 1.
However, experts said Moscow would have to make concessions to Kazakhstan, which could ban subsequent Proton launches.
On Wednesday, Andrei Ionin, an expert at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, said Proton rockets had to orbit six satellites of Russia's radio-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS) by late 2007, and that this was a political, rather than technical, objective.
Ionin said Kazakhstan would take advantage of the situation and allow Moscow to launch three GLONASS satellites on October 26 and ban launches in December. He said there were no internationally accepted methods for assessing the damage caused by falling rockets, and that Russia would have to negotiate with Kazakhstan in order to implement its space program.
Vedomosti
Yukos affair: easier to begin than to end
Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a former billionaire and one-time head of the bankrupted Yukos oil company, has so far served four years of his eight-year prison sentence. However, a new charge recently added to his case might increase the term. He has been accused of embezzling and laundering more than $22 billion.
A group of human rights activists, writers and politicians yesterday called on President Vladimir Putin to end his presidential term by freeing the people involved in the Yukos affair.
But polls show that Russians are indifferent to Khodorkovsky and Yukos.
According to the Levada Center, 54% of the respondents said that nothing has changed in Russian business after the Yukos affair, and 32% have no opinion on the matter, although the high-profile Yukos trial concerned tens of billions of dollars in tax-avoidance.
Many people now want to forget about the Yukos affair as a bad dream. Indeed, the number of respondents who have not heard anything about it has grown from 7% in October 2005 to 22% today. The number of people baffled by such questions as, "What was the authorities' goal in the Yukos affair?" and "Who benefitted from the company's bankruptcy?", has doubled. "No answer" has become the most popular answer in Yukos polls.
Public indifference is a perfect background for releasing Khodorkovsky and other persons sentenced in the Yukos case.
"Keeping them in prison for the remaining four years, let alone increasing the sentence, would amount to malicious vengefulness," the human rights group's letter to the president says.
It is difficult to say what the Yukos affair signifies. At any rate, most people cannot say, according to the Levada poll. More than 50% of Russians said they don't know the root cause of the new charges. It is clear, though, that the authorities do not consider the affair finished.
There are many explanations for the attack on Yukos, the most high-profile court case during Putin's presidency. And it has become clear that it was easier to begin the case than it is to end it. The organizers of the persecution campaign cannot decide what to do.
The issue of Putin's third term and new charges against Khodorkovsky seem to be equally complicated, in a strange and inexplicable way.
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