MOSCOW, December 21 (RIA Novosti) Analysts see no need to Putinize the Russian constitution / Putin may become Gazprom chairman / Russia offers unprecedented financial assistance to Belarus / Russia forced to engage in Central Asian gas diplomacy / China wants Moscow to supply nuclear technology / Russian government to sign final car assembly contract with Mitsubishi
Izvestia
Analysts see no need to Putinize the Russian constitution
Kremlin officials strongly deny that presidential chief of staff Sergei Sobyanin has ordered a review of legislation to increase the powers of the prime minister.
Vladimir Putin has repeatedly said there will be no realignment of duties between president and premier. Analysts, too, do not believe this is necessary - the prime minister's powers are broad enough as they are: it's just that no one has used them in full.
"The Constitution has all the required checks and balances, all controls and complementarity principles in place, so there is no need to rewrite the Constitution," said Vladimir Pligin, head of the Duma's constitutional legislation and state development committee.
"Many underestimate the constitutional powers of the prime minister and in general of the Cabinet: under the Constitution the prime minister and the government carry a very great weight," said Vyacheslav Nikonov, president of the Politika Foundation.
"After all, in Russia it is the government and prime minister that are top of the executive branch. Under the Constitution it is the government that spells out many of the lines in the domestic and foreign policy of Russia."
"On closer inspection, even a conflict over who runs the 'siloviki' is easily resolved," the analyst said.
"Although the president appoints them, the prime minister is largely responsible for current tactical and sometimes strategic leadership. The government, says the Constitution, 'shall adopt measures to ensure the country's defense, state security and the implementation of foreign policy,' while the president shall accept credentials, conduct international negotiations and, if necessary, introduce martial law. All the realignment of powers boils down to fulfilling the Constitution to the letter," he said.
Vedomosti
Putin may become Gazprom chairman
Analysts and officials say that after the March 2008 presidential elections Vladimir Putin might accept the post of chairman of the board of directors of energy giant Gazprom.
First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, who has been officially nominated as a candidate for the presidency, intends to leave his post at Gazprom, which he has held since 2000, after winning the elections. Shareholders can nominate candidates for chairman until January 31, 2008.
Alexander Ignatov, executive director of the public Election Right Institute, said the law on state service does not prohibit the president from holding a post of board chairman.
Political analyst Alexei Makarkin says that traditionally the president is expected to keep an equal distance from all state-controlled companies.
Officials and experts wonder who will take Medvedev's place at Gazprom.
A source from Medvedev's team and two sources with close connections in Gazprom and its board of directors said Vladimir Putin, who Medvedev wants to be his prime minister, is a likely candidate.
A source close to the Kremlin said an intermediate candidate might hold the post before Putin takes it.
"The most probable scenario is that Medvedev and Putin will swap places," Makarkin said.
Steven Dashevsky, the managing director at Aton, one of largest Russian equity brokers by traded volumes, said this is a possible scenario. However, Medvedev could also be replaced by a minister or a high-ranking Kremlin official, because Putin will have enough instruments to influence Gazprom, the businessman said.
A Kremlin official said there would be no change until the presidential elections, and that he doubts Putin needs the post.
A Gazprom manager said Medvedev is deeply involved in running the company, carefully listening to information during the board's meetings, demanding additional data, and sometimes answering questions put to other directors.
Konstantin Simonov, head of the Center for Current Politics in Russia, said Medvedev, who is not responsible for the fuel and energy sector as first deputy prime minister, often attended international talks bearing on Gazprom, repelled all attempts to split the company, and pressed for raising gas prices to European levels by 2011.
Kommersant
Russia offers unprecedented financial assistance to Belarus
The total amount of state loans Russia promised to Belarus has suddenly been increased from $1.5 billion to $3.5 billion. In addition, Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Kudrin has promised another 10 billion rubles in loans to Belarus on the domestic Russian market.
Belarus had not expected such generosity but it is not likely to oppose Russia's desire to pay for its economic orientation toward its "big brother."
For Belarus, these loans mean a lot: $3.5 billion equals about 7% of the country's projected consolidated budget expenditure for 2008 ($24.4 billion) and slightly less than the size of the social assistance fund (combining the functions of the pension fund and the social insurance system), which will amount to $5.6 billion in 2008.
Shortly before Vladimir Putin's recent visit to Minsk, political analysts thought the loan might be Russia's payment for Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's consent to discuss the Russian version of provisions on the Russia-Belarus Union State. However, now that the "stake" has been increased by 2.5 times, they see other reasons for this.
Andrei Fyodorov, director of the Political Studies and Consulting Foundation, says: "Most probably, Moscow has come to terms with Lukashenko on Russia's broader access to the Belarusian economy. There are also agreements in the security sphere, because Belarus borders on Poland. Finally, it may be payment for the possible transition to the Russian ruble [as the single currency]."
Political analyst Stanislav Belkovsky believes that $3.5 billion is payment for guarantees that there will be no economic conflicts between Russia and Belarus before the March 2008 presidential election in Russia.
Alexei Kudrin categorically refused to discuss political reasons behind the loan but he could not void commenting. He said that the low cost of the loan "takes into account the level of the two countries' relations and the formation of the Union State."
Judging by all signs and results of many-hour talks in Minsk on December 14, Russia has decided to change its tactics towards Belarus. If Belarus does not reject the cheap Russian loans (which is most unlikely), this will strengthen the integration of the two countries' economies and also Belarus' tie-up with the Russian financial and stock markets. Where political arguments do not work, the problem can be solved with the help of money, which is not too big a problem for Russia.
Vremya Novostei
Russia forced to engage in Central Asian gas diplomacy
On Thursday, with a delay of almost four months, Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan signed an intergovernmental cooperation agreement on a Caspian gas pipeline in the Kremlin.
It is believed that implementation of the project will give Ashgabat and Astana little time to think of alternative export routes to bypass Russia. But there is no certainty that Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan have the necessary gas volumes to fill the new pipe.
Back in 2003, Russia and Turkmenistan signed a long-term agreement on the supply of up to 60-70 billion cubic meters of gas in 2007. A year ago, Gazprom and Turkmengaz signed a contract for "up to 50 billion cubic meters."
However, the amount supplied is still 42-44 billion cubic meters, because Ashgabat has failed to guarantee a higher figure.
Gazprom could not well explain where they would obtain gas for the new project.
It is common knowledge that the third branch of the Central Asia-Center system passing along the planned Caspian route has been functioning since Soviet times. It exports to Russia small amounts (about 4 billion cubic meters) of processed petroleum gas from fields in western Turkmenistan.
It is also common knowledge that some upgrading of the line and its compressor stations can boost its throughput capacity to 10 billion cubic meters.
The new standard gas pipeline (with normal working pressure) is able to pump 30 billion cubic meters annually.
But for it to do this, it is necessary to provide enough resources in the Turkmen and Kazakh sectors of the Caspian.
Negotiations on the participation of Russian companies (above all LUKoil and Gazprom) in the exploration and production of gas in Turkmenistan are going at full pace, but even if they were to end tomorrow, the commercial production of gas in 2010, as promised by Industry and Energy Minister Viktor Khristenko, looks like a fanciful proposition.
As for a joint project to develop the large Kurmangazy gas field in Kazakhstan, its realization is an even farther cry than the Turkmenistan project.
It must be remembered that even an additional pipe will not guarantee Russia against regular price blackmailing by gas sellers from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, threatening alternative export routes.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
China wants Moscow to supply nuclear technology
China must develop serial production of Russian nuclear reactors under the direct supervision of Russian nuclear power engineers, Zeng Peiyan, vice premier of China's State Council, said at the ceremony of putting into commercial operation two Russian-made VVER-1000 nuclear reactors at the Tianwan power plant.
Russian nuclear power engineers hope that new Chinese contracts will not be loss-generating.
"It is possible that China will sooner or later develop its own technology to manufacture reactors similar to Russian VVERs, but we have not specifically negotiated handing over our technology," said Ivan Kamenskikh, deputy head of the Federal Nuclear Power Agency (Rosatom), commenting on Zeng Peiyan's statement.
Beijing is trying to gain access to all nuclear technology available throughout the world.
"China's nuclear policy is based on diversification. The reactors built there include Russia, French, American and Canadian ones as well as Chinese ones. China also asks Russia to take part in the tenders where other bidders are expected to win - Americans, for example," Vladimir Asmolov, deputy head of Rosenergoatom, the federal company overseeing Russia's nuclear power and hydropower plants, shared his view.
He said that despite the multiple defects which showed up in the course of the construction, the Chinese were satisfied with the quality and economic efficiency of the Russian reactors in Tianwan. They want to replicate them now without further modernization.
Russian nuclear engineers do not want to sell cheap as far as new contracts are concerned. Russia's Atomstroyexport, which has built the first two reactors at Tianwan, insists on better commercial conditions for the next two generators, because the first contract was loss-making.
"The Russian nuclear industry is no longer faced with a survival issue, and we will insist on a profitable contract next time," Atomstroyexport president Sergei Shmatko said on Thursday.
China's nuclear power generation development program until 2020 envisages the construction of a series of plants with a total capacity of 40 MW (which corresponds to 40 Russian VVERs). Russian power engineers are likely to share their technologies if they participate in the program.
Kommersant
Russian government to sign final car assembly contract with Mitsubishi
Next week, the Economic Development and Trade Ministry plans to sign the final industrial car-assembly contract with Japanese automotive giant Mitsubishi, a global partner of French carmaker PSA Peugeot Citroen.
Experts told the paper off the record that both companies would build plants in Kaluga, in the southwest of Moscow, and that the city would become the second largest national automotive cluster after St. Petersburg.
However, a source close to Mitsubishi said the company and Peugeot Citroen were still choosing between Kaluga and Nizhny Novgorod on the Volga River.
A source familiar with Mitsubishi plans said the $220 million plant, due to be commissioned in 2009, would have an initial capacity of 50,000 cars per year and would eventually double production.
Although Nizhny Novgorod Region authorities have repeatedly said they are ready to allocate a land plot to the French company, Governor Valery Shantsev hinted on Thursday that there would be no regional Peugeot Citroen plant, and that this extremely difficult project was undesirable.
Shantsev said the projected Peugeot Citroen plant would merely assemble cars featuring no Russian components except headlights, bumpers and mufflers.
This is the first time that Western automakers wishing to operate in Russia have faced such criticism. Under industrial assembly contracts, they must relocate car-body welding and painting facilities and must also produce machine cylinder blocks and engine-crankcase elements here.
Mikhail Pak, an analyst with the Capital brokerage, said Shantsev's statements implied that the regional authorities had not yet reached an agreement with the French company, and that they were probably trying to convince everyone that they did not need the project.
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