There will be no revolutionary changes in Russian policy also because Putin himself will be in charge of relations with neighboring countries. These relations are the prerogative of the prime minister and subordinate ministries. If Putin becomes prime minister, he will be responsible for foreign policy, while the new president will act as a speaker at summits. At least, this is how it will be in the beginning.
It is important to see what new elements have been introduced into Russian policy in the CIS. Medvedev suggested three innovations for the CIS (they are part of his election program).
First. An integral CIS market of nanotechnologies to promote science-intensive industries. This is not a new proposal for the heads of CIS countries. Putin spoke about this in his address to the Federal Assembly in 2007; First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov reiterated this idea later; it was also voiced at CIS summits in Astana and Baku.
But how will this market be created? Should CIS countries establish an investment pool or build some industrial facilities? But what kind of facilities should these be if nanotechnologies for industrial production do not exist yet? Most probably, this initiative should be viewed as a proposal to set up public private corporations in science-intensive industries on the CIS scale.
Second. A CIS emergency fund. This is a sound idea, considering common wear and tear of infrastructure. The Russian Emergencies Ministry and its other CIS counterparts are well connected with each other and highly effective.
Third. Cultural sphere. Putin has supplemented Medvedev's proposal to create a digital database in the CIS by the initiative to translate more fiction books from CIS languages into Russian. Funds like the Russian World can play a special role in promoting Russia's social and cultural interests in other CIS countries. Ukraine also wants to set up funds to advance its culture in Russia. Cooperation in this field may acquire a new dimension.
Putin has also proposed increasing the budget of the Mir TV company by 50% and funding the programs of its transition to modern digital technologies.
At the informal summit, the presidents also talked about a program of economic development and agreed to discuss a strategy of CIS economic development until 2020 at their next meeting.
Putin spoke about similar issues outlining his strategy in his latest address to the State Council. He set forth the following tasks - to specify the schedule for the transition to free trade, consolidate common standards in migration policy, and discuss development and investments into transport, methods of anti-monopoly struggle, and food security.
It is hard to say how far the leaders of the Western CIS countries can advance toward free trade, considering different speed of development and the common European vector of trade.
However, the emphasis at this summit was made on Medvedev's innovations.
The third Russian president is not likely to make any serious changes in Russia's policy in the CIS. Putin does not want any transgressions of the Constitution, and therefore redistribution of the roles between the new prime minister and the president is doubtful. It is highly probable that Putin will become prime minister, and there may be a reshuffle in his executive office and the cabinet of ministers. If Putin becomes prime minister, the Russian Foreign Ministry will strengthen its positions and regain its role in foreign policy decision-making.
There is an interesting prospect - two main levers of policy in the CIS will come together in one point. First, it is the government (which controls those few CIS agencies that are still working), bilateral ministerial commissions, state corporate business interests, and personal contacts between CIS officials. Second, it is Putin himself. He was behind the revival of CIS associations. CIS officials assessed prospects of agreements depending on his reaction; he approved or disapproved of different projects.
If Putin becomes prime minister, he will bring together these two mechanisms. Officials like Viktor Khristenko and Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Naryshkin will remain in the next government, and will step up the activities of EurAsEC and implementation of major infrastructure projects.
Raw materials monopolists engaged in joint hydrocarbons exports from Central Asia are controlled by the government, and it only remains to administer them properly and maintain the balance of interests between countries.
Changes in the CIS Executive Committee (now chaired by Sergei Lebedev, the former head of the Foreign Intelligence Service) show that Putin wants to consolidate CIS administrative agencies rather than use them as a pre-pension settling pit.
To sum up, under the new prime minister and president, the CIS and especially more integrated agencies within it have good chances for further progress.
Alexander Karavayev works at the Center of CIS Studies at Moscow State University.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
