Relations between Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela have plunged to new lows after Colombian troops attacked a camp of the left-wing extremist organization, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), in Ecuador on March 1. As many as 24 guerrillas, including a senior commander of the FARC, were killed in the raid.
The confrontation is not unexpected. Colombia is the hottest spot in Latin America, where many countries have lately elected left wing governments.
Colombia is the only country on the continent where a powerful guerilla group - the FARC - controls a large portion of territory. In the past, it controlled nearly two-thirds of Colombia, but its zone of influence has dwindled to one-third. Despite its rhetoric, the organization has nothing in common with Che Guevara or Marxism, and is mainly involved in drug trafficking and kidnappings.
I have been to Colombia and can tell you that politicians, servicemen, businessmen and common people there try to avoid the risk zone, which begins only nine miles from the capital. It is no wonder that the United States and the European Union have put the FARC on their terrorist lists.
The group is holding many Colombian politicians hostage, including Ingrid Betancourt, a former presidential candidate. Like many FARC hostages, she is reported to be suffering from ill health.
An undeclared war has been raging in the region for decades, and the March 1 raid would not have produced any repercussions if the Colombian troops had not entered Ecuador.
Other countries have been known to do the same with impunity. The United States routinely conducts antiterrorist operations in foreign territories. Russia has announced its readiness to deliver preemptive strikes against terrorists wherever they may be, and Turkey fights Kurds in Iraq.
But Colombia's raid was different. It not only killed FARC's second-in-command, Raul Reyes, but also captured documents proving that the Colombian guerilla group maintains ties with the authorities in Venezuela and Ecuador - not that it was much of a secret, anyway.
While the Colombian authorities rely on American assistance in their struggle against FARC, Ecuador and Venezuela in recent years have taken a more leftwing, and increasingly anti-American, path.
Hugo Chavez, who claims to be a disciple of veteran revolutionary Fidel Castro, has promised to use petrodollars to build socialism in Venezuela. He loves to free hostages under the kind eye of TV cameras, and at the same time helps the drug guerillas whenever possible.
It is unclear whether the conflict will escalate into a war. Evidently this is the last thing Colombia wants, with its hands full of domestic problems. So it offered its apologies to Ecuador.
Although Ecuador has expelled Colombian diplomats in response to the raid, it hastened to add that this should not affect bilateral economic relations. Besides, it has sent only 3,200 troops to the Colombian border - enough to make headlines, but not to start a war.
Venezuela, on the other hand, which was not affected by the raid, has not only expelled Colombian diplomats but also ordered masses of troops and 10 tank battalions to its border with Colombia. President Hugo Chavez pledged war if Colombia tried a similar foray into Venezuelan territory.
By the way, the Venezuelans are well armed, including with Russian weapons.
Chavez is unlikely to start a war, but if he does, Colombia will find allies against him. Washington has long been watching Chavez, also waiting for a chance to deliver a strike at the drug guerillas.
Latin Americans have fire in their veins, and Chavez is an extravagant man. But he is not a fool. He hopes that a demonstration of force will win him kudos with left-wing forces, without the inherent risks of actually fighting a war - especially if the U.S. were to join in. Besides, public opinion in Venezuela is not as monolithic as it may seem, as shown by the referendum on controversial constitutional reforms in December 2007, which Chavez lost.
If Venezuela goes to war, Russia will not hesitate to freeze its arms supplies - the Kremlin does not need more problems with the West. Fidel is on his deathbed, and can only offer Chavez words of support. The situation in Cuba is too unstable to send troops to a foreign war. The most it could do is send a hundred military advisers.
Ecuador, where the situation is never stable and whose presidents seldom, if ever, complete their terms, does not need a war either. The current Ecuadoran president has too many enemies to start such a war.
So Ecuador and Colombia will most probably kiss and make up, and Venezuela will eventually calm down.
Besides, jungle fighting is exhausting. Tanks sink into bogs, aircraft disappear without a trace, and troops end up where they never intended when taking to the road two weeks before. Neither side has a chance of quick victory, but all of them will face political disaster, if they unleash a war.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
