MOSCOW, March 14 (RIA Novosti) U.S. to deploy another radar at Russia's border / Russian parliament vague about Kosovo's independence / Ukraine wins gas battle over Russia, but the real war lies ahead / Gazprom may get access to oil projects in Vietnam / Irkut Corporation scraps Russian-Indian MTA project / Norilsk Nickel set to develop huge East Siberian deposit
Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Vremya Novostei
U.S. to deploy another radar at Russia's border
It was reported on Thursday that Washington and Ankara had started secret consultations on deploying a U.S. radar in Turkey. If confirmed, this information could do more than complicate matters at the upcoming two-plus-two U.S.-Russia talks in Moscow slated for March 17-18, and will prove an additional source of tension in relations between the two countries.
The U.S. missile-defense system will certainly be one of the focuses of the Moscow talks, as Russia still insists that the urgent deployment of U.S. anti-missile bases in Europe to prevent an alleged Iranian threat has been poorly justified.
Russian experts believe that Tehran is unlikely to produce missiles with ranges long enough to threaten Europe or the U.S. any time soon, and that the anti-missile system is really aimed at counterbalancing Russia's nuclear deterrence potential.
If Turkey becomes the third region in the system's deployment, then the radar stationed in the Czech Republic will "X-ray" Russia's territory as far as the Urals, while the interceptor missiles to be based in Poland will be a threat to Russia's arsenal.
Analysts are openly skeptical about the projected meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Pentagon chief Robert Gates with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov.
"Consultations are about finding out the opponent's position and working to reach a compromise. However, one gets the impression that the Republicans are making every effort to make it harder for the new U.S. president to go back on this [the missile shield plans]," they say.
Viktor Yesin, senior vice president of the Academy of Problems of Security, Defense, Law and Order, said if the anti-missile bases were being established to protect Europe from an Iranian attack, then "the Pentagon would be better off equipping them with the THAAD systems currently being tested, as they can hit missiles after launch, at the boost phase."
Gazeta.ru, Moskovsky Komsomolets
Russian parliament vague about Kosovo's independence
The State Duma, the Russian parliament's lower house, eventually decided against recognizing Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transdnestr, three self-proclaimed republics within former Soviet republics.
Therefore, its reaction to Kosovo's independence sounded ambiguous, as the recommendations produced in the wake of the parliamentary hearings avoided even a single hint of the three regions' sovereignty, but proposed that the Russian government open diplomatic missions there.
Political analyst Alexei Vlasov, deputy head of the Center for Social and Political Processes in Post-Soviet Countries (a Moscow think-tank), said the resolution was drafted in such a way as to leave the government room for maneuver.
"It could be interpreted either way; it was clear that they would never do anything that could prod the Kremlin into recognizing the three self-proclaimed states," he added.
He said the lawmakers had shown that the Kremlin was rather "interested in expanding contacts in the mid-term."
According to Vlasov, optimists claim the three republics will become independent within six months, while pessimists point to the Taiwan scenario - foreign economic missions established in these republics without real political recognition.
"The attitudes toward self-proclaimed republics should be considered in the broader context of developments on Russia's borders," said Mikhail Aleksandrov, head of the Caucasus department of the Russian Academy of Sciences' CIS Institute. "NATO is rapidly approaching Russia's borders, and the self-proclaimed republics could be used as pressure tools. That is why Moscow is avoiding any rush with regard to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. If Russia recognizes them, nothing will hold Georgia back from joining NATO."
"On the other hand," Aleksandrov continued, "Russia cannot recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia without recognizing Kosovo as well, because its diplomacy will collapse if it does. Therefore, Moscow is likely to broaden its economic contacts with the self-proclaimed republics without recognizing them officially. As of now, Russia is already trying to attract Abkhazia to the Sochi Olympics construction projects."
Kommersant
Ukraine wins gas battle over Russia, but the real war lies ahead
Russian energy giant Gazprom and Naftogaz of Ukraine, the state gas company of Ukraine, have reached an understanding that marks a tactical victory for Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.
The middleman company UkrGazEnergo is to be dropped from the gas supply chain from March 1, to be followed by RosUkrEnergo several months later. But for this political concession to Ukraine Gazprom has promised to equate prices for Russian and Central Asian gas in 2009. As a result, Ukrainian consumers will have to pay an additional $3.3-6.6 billion for the political principles of their prime minister.
Russia has met all the demands set by Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko - UkrGazEnergo (owned 50/50 by RosUkrEnergo and Naftogaz of Ukraine) has been removed from the supply scheme, and until the end of the year the country will be buying low-priced gas from Central Asia.
Mikhail Korchemkin, director of East European Gas Analysis, said that although this gas battle between Russia and Ukraine has been won by Yulia Tymoshenko, "the real war lies ahead" - and will be fought for contracts for 2009.
"Currently Gazprom has merely guaranteed normal transit via Ukraine until the end of the year and record profits from exports to Europe," the expert said.
Janos Petofi, director general of Hungarian wholesale gas distributor Magyar GT, described Ukraine's victory as "purely political." In his view, Gazprom now has a free hand on the Ukrainian market, though it holds only 10% of it.
Moreover, Petofi added that the monopoly has no reason to artificially hold back gas prices for Ukraine. Central Asian countries, which are the main suppliers for Ukraine, are already helping Gazprom to put up the case for a higher price.
During talks in Moscow on Tuesday, Gazprom came down on the side of establishing 2009 prices for Central Asian gas at the European level minus transport expenses.
Sources in the Turkmengaz state company said that the country wanted to receive $250-270 per 1,000 cubic meters on the border with Uzbekistan.
Uzakbai Karabalin, president of Kazmunaigaz, Kazakhstan's national oil and gas company, said on Thursday that in 2009 his country was planning to raise prices on the border with Russia by 60-70% compared with last year, bringing them to $200-210 per 1,000 cubic meters.
In that case the gas will cost Ukraine $240-300 per 1,000 cubic meters in 2009, even without Gazprom's margin of profit. That is to say, the end users will have to pay an additional $3.3-6.6 billion for keeping imports at the 55 billion cubic meters level.
Korchemkin said that Gazprom was sure to push up gas prices for Ukraine - and the country could avoid that only if it allowed the Russian monopoly to increase its share of Ukraine's domestic market.
RBK Daily
Gazprom may get access to oil projects in Vietnam
Russian gas giant Gazprom is considering opportunities to participate in projects to develop oil fields in Vietnam. These plans were discussed on March 13 by Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller and president of the Petrovietnam Corporation Tran Ngok Kan.
Both companies are conducting geological prospecting operations on the Vietnamese continental shelf. The sides believe joint work in third countries is also possible.
Analysts point out that the Russian gas monopoly is developing cooperation with Russia's traditional partners because strong competition from international companies is reducing chances for Gazprom's expansion.
Apart from Vietnam, Gazprom is implementing projects to develop shelf resources in Libya (block 19 on the Mediterranean shelf, with investments exceeding $200 million), India (seismic research under way in the Bay of Bengal) and Venezuela (the Rafael Urdaneta project with gas resources amounting to 736 billion cubic meters).
Gazprom should expand its presence outside Russia in order to strengthen its positions as a global energy business leader, stressed Denis Borisov, an analyst at the Solid investment and financial company.
The transnational nature of companies and their broad diversification by geographic regions is the basis of business at nearly all major global vertically integrated companies, he added.
Mikhail Korchemkin, director of East European Gas Analysis, thinks that Gazprom is present on the Vietnamese shelf because there is a chance, albeit a small one, of finding a large oil and gas field there.
Vedomosti
Irkut Corporation scraps Russian-Indian MTA project
The Irkut Corporation, the world-recognized leader of the Russian aerospace industry, and based in Irkutsk, Eastern Siberia, has decided to stop financing the Russian-Indian MTA (Multirole Transport Aircraft) project and will focus on the MS-21 medium-haul passenger airliner together with Sukhoi Civilian Aircraft.
Another Russian aviation giant, the Ilyushin Aviation Complex, which developed the MTA plane, also decided to withdraw from the MS-21 project.
Irkut CEO Oleg Demchenko said the decision to divide the projects had been made earlier this year.
Irkut negotiated the MTA project with the Indian Armed Forces and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) from the early 2000s.
In November 2007, Moscow and New Delhi signed an intergovernmental agreement on developing the new aircraft.
Konstantin Makiyenko, deputy director of the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, said the MTA aircraft and the fifth-generation fighter program were the only two long-term joint projects involving Russia.
Ilyushin CEO Viktor Livanov said the company lacked human resources and would not be able to implement the MTA project after Irkut decided that it had no future and opted for other planes.
Oleg Panteleyev, head of research at Aviaport, a Moscow-based aviation analytics firm, said the MS-21 project was better financed and had a larger sales market. He said 1.6 billion rubles ($67.5 million) worth of budgetary allocations had been set aside for the plane's initial design.
Vedomosti
Norilsk Nickel set to develop huge East Siberian deposit
On Thursday Russia's Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest producer of nickel and palladium, paid $30.4 million to acquire the Iisk-Tagul field in the Irkutsk Region, Eastern Siberia, up from a starting price of 110,000,000 rubles ($4.7 million). The deposit has the potential to significantly boost the company's nickel reserves and to replace declining Arctic ore stocks.
Norilsk Nickel, which has received a 25-year license, will develop the deposit together with the Australian-British BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company.
East Sayany Nickel Company representing Norilsk Nickel's interests won the auction.
As of December 31, 2006, the Australasian Joint Ore Reserves Committee estimated proven Norilsk Nickel reserves at 6 million metric tons, plus another 10.6 million metric tons in prospected reserves.
Under the license, the company is to build an ore-processing factory at the Iisk-Tagul field.
The deposit contains an estimated 7.5 million metric tons of nickel metal (average content, 0.5%), as well as 3.5 million metric tons of copper (0.2%) and 750 metric tons of platinum group metals (0.5-2.5 grams per ton).
Companies affiliated with steel giant Severstal and business oligarch Oleg Deripaska's holding company Basic Element, which owns aluminum giant RusAl, were expected to bid but did not show up.
A Severstal spokesperson declined to comment and a spokesperson for Basic Element said the company had refused to bid "for purely commercial reasons."
Norilsk Nickel has acquired an inexpensive deposit that will yield 50,000 to 100,000 metric tons of nickel, or 33-50% of current gross output, in ten years, Alexei Morozov, head of research for Russia and CIS equities at Swiss bank UBS, told the paper.
Norilsk Nickel CEO Denis Morozov said the company could contribute the asset to a joint venture with BHP Billiton, and that both companies would spend 2.5 billion rubles ($104.1 million) on joint prospecting operations over the next three years.
He said the company would also gain access to BHP Billiton technologies.
BHP Billiton representatives could not be reached for comment.
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