It would be more appropriate to call him normal, although that is not a word that can be easily applied to Taiwan, which has existed as an international legal aberration for 58 years now.
Ma Ying-jeou has won the recent election under the slogan of developing relations between Taiwan and mainland China, whereas the question of the island's juridical separation and its sovereignty has been hushed up. His victory was convincing - 58% of votes against 42%, which is not surprising, considering that two months ago the KMT won two thirds of seats in the parliamentary elections.
This means that after an eight-year-long experiment on verbal (and not only verbal) confrontation with Beijing, everything is returning to the absurd one-China formula, which has been in use since 1949. Under it, China is united and includes Taiwan, but Beijing and Taipei have different interpretations of this unity. Neither side objects to this different interpretation.
At first glance it might seem that the Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait have thus preferred to be in the state of a civil war, which ended in 1949 with the victory of Mao Zedong-led Communists. The defeated Chiang Kai-shek took shelter in Taiwan, and insisted till the end of his life that only his government was legal on the entire Chinese territory. The previous President Chen Shui-bian tried to experiment with the opposite approach and declare Taiwan's independence, but to no avail.
The people of Taiwan have preferred unity to a civil war. This is the highest good, and it overrides everything else. This is clear from three millennia of Chinese history - when China is unified, it prospers and people are happy; when trouble comes, China splits and waits for a new ruler to restore the country and recover its economy. Chinese civilization has gone through enough split-recovery cycles for Chen Shui-bian to make this experience second to nationalism. He lost. He would have lost four years ago if it were not for a strange attempt on his life. This circus trick helped him, but not for long.
What stood behind his experiment? Chen was not a run-of-the-mill president. When I visited Taiwan in 2000, I found out that a lot of people there did not understand too well how such an obviously unprepared and weak leader could have come to power. It is clear that the ossified, somewhat Brezhnev-like KMT was largely responsible for that. But the Taiwanese mostly put the blame at the door of their American friends for putting their man into office.
The 1990s were the era of international experiment, when obviously weak pro-American candidates came to power in different countries. It is hard to explain why. It was probably believed that during globalization the head of state should be a colorless manager rather than a charismatic leader, or Clinton's America facilitated the victory of those who were weaker and more suitable. Maybe, this was done for both reasons.
But since then both the United States and China have changed. The Republican administration of President George W. Bush does not dare make China angry by talking about Taiwan's independence. Washington has firmly declared that it will not support Taiwan's plan to join the UN as an independent country. The experiment of the Democrats fell through, and America is now very unpopular among the supporters of President Ma (for an eight-year-long story of Taiwan's separatism), and among those who backed the former President Chen (for promising independence and giving it all up).
What can be expected of President Ma? As I mentioned earlier, it is difficult to call him pro-Beijing, although Beijing is certainly happy about his victory. He has criticized China for its human rights record and lack of democracy; Taiwan traditionally supports the Falungun, a quasi-religious sect which is a thorn in the side of Chinese society, and so on and so forth. But, most importantly, President Ma stands for accelerated economic integration between Taiwan and mainland China. He will probably start with a direct maritime link via a rather narrow strait. Ports on both sides were ready for this event even before the former president came to power. Direct flights will probably be launched in the near future.
Ma's supporters demand a stop to the deterioration of the economy, and this can only be done by more active cooperation with China. Not only Taiwan, but even Japan depends economically on the Chinese market and production lines. Even the U.S. economy depends on cooperation with China.
Indicatively, despite Chen's confrontational policy, Taiwanese companies invested up to $150 billion into the economy of mainland China. Taiwanese companies that open plants and factories in China pay lower taxes and get a consumer market of the same ethnic origin and culture. In some estimates, another $20 billion stood ready to cover the strait with the election of the KMT president.
The Taiwan experience is a good reason to ponder over the following question - is the world leaning towards separation or integration? The Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait have given a clear-cut answer.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
