MOSCOW, April 4 (RIA Novosti) Russia loses NATO summit/ Russia flatters itself if it believes Germany follows Kremlin's opinion/ Venezuela set to buy Russian submarines/ Volkswagen to beat its competitors in Russia/ Russian Olympic Committee sues Total over old debts/Gazprom accused of creating problems for TNK-BP
Kommersant
Russia loses NATO summit
Georgia and Ukraine have been denied accession to the bloc, which some experts interpret as a triumph for Kremlin diplomacy. But in fact Russia has lost in Bucharest, because the bloc's decision to deploy ballistic missile systems in Europe will have more dramatic consequences for Moscow than the temporary defeat of Tbilisi and Kiev.
NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said the United States had asked the bloc to create a joint ballistic missile system for protecting those NATO countries which will not be covered by the American anti-missile structure.
This means that the European ABM has turned from an American into a NATO project, therefore undermining Russia's ability to oppose it because it will now have to deal with the united Western community in the form of NATO.
After Scheffer made his speech, the experts attending the summit said that the ABM decision was payment for the concession to Russia regarding Georgia and Ukraine.
Dmitry Savelyev, director of the Sistema efficient management institute, said: "The issue of granting MAP to Georgia and Ukraine was deliberately overheated to scare Moscow and prepare it for the pessimistic scenario, compared with that the anti-missile decision would not seem so terrible. After all, Moscow is happy that Georgia and Ukraine are remaining in its sphere of influence."
Andrei Serenko at the Centre for Modern Afghanistan Studies said the concession was directly connected with Afghanistan.
"U.S. President George W. Bush plans a ground operation in the Taliban-controlled southern Afghanistan region in early summer," he said. "He needs Americans' support for his policy and for [Republican presidential candidate] John McCain. For the operation to succeed, the Western military group in Afghanistan should be increased and supplied with food and equipment, which can be delivered only across Russia."
Defeating the Taliban is much more important for Bush than giving Georgia and Ukraine access to the Membership Action Plan, which they will gain anyway sooner or later.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Russia flatters itself if it believes Germany follows Kremlin's opinion
Yesterday, in Bucharest, Georgia and Ukraine, although backed by the United States, Canada and some European countries, failed to secure a NATO Membership Action Plan. The refusal was cushioned by a pledge to take up the matter again in December.
Experts see no reason to speak of Moscow's success, but consider that the Bucharest verdict could help the sides to soften other tough issues.
On Thursday, protesters staged anti-NATO rallies in Ukraine, while in Georgia there was a general feeling of disappointment. However, both the political establishment and some political analysts are sure that the firm position adopted by West European leaders has been dictated by an unwillingness to sour relations with Russia.
"That is wrong through and through," said Dr. Ashot Manucharian, a German political scientist. "West European countries were under enough pressure from both Washington and Moscow. They chose to suit themselves. Russia flatters itself if it believes that by denying Ukraine and Georgia the MAP, Germany, for one, was considering the Kremlin's opinion. It was, of course, taken into account, but what happened was a situational coincidence of interests."
According to the analyst, Moscow could have celebrated victory if Kiev and Tbilisi had dropped the idea of joining NATO. "It is therefore naive to speak of any goal scored by Russia on NATO-Ukraine or NATO-Georgia relationships."
Alexei Malashenko, an analyst from the Moscow Carnegie Center, does not rule out that the verdict that satisfied Russia could indirectly influence the solution of other key issues to which the sides have different approaches.
"A Putin-Bush meeting in Sochi may mark a certain departure from the tough line on missile defenses. If there were no hope there would be no sense in holding the meeting," the expert said.
He drew attention to the fact that Moscow now almost never mentions the idea of a gas OPEC so infuriating to the West, and in the energy sector, constructive relations are gradually taking shape. Another mutually irritating factor - Kosovo - seems to be shifting to the back burner.
"Russia is taking that loyally enough. Its threats to recognize the independence of Abkhazia or South Ossetia in reply have not been acted on," Malashenko said.
In his view, Russia and the West should be expected to improve relations in the near future.
Kommersant
Venezuela set to buy Russian submarines
Venezuela wants to use an $800 million Russian loan to finance the purchase of four Project 636 Kilo-class attack submarines from Moscow.
Analysts said President Hugo Chavez needed more money for his social programs and was trying to find new sources for defense contract funding.
President Chavez has been invited to attend the inauguration of Russian president-elect Dmitry Medvedev this May. The sides are to sign the submarine sale contract during his visit.
A Venezuelan diplomat said the contract, finalized in late 2007 and early 2008, was to have been signed during Chavez' visit this February. However, the Venezuelan leader postponed his visit citing aggravated relations with Colombia. In reality, Chavez wants to wait for Medvedev to assume office.
In early March, Rosoboronexport, the main Russian state-owned arms exporter, offered 12 Ilyushin Il-76 Candid strategic cargo aircraft to Caracas. The Sukhoi Aviation Holding Company is to supply 24 Su-30MK2 Flanker fighters to Venezuela by July 2008.
President Chavez will also discuss the possibility of buying several new Su-35 Super Flankers during his Moscow visit. However, the first military aircraft now undergoing flight tests will not be delivered before 2010.
Russian sources said Moscow and Caracas would have to coordinate contract funding. The aforesaid submarine contract is worth $1 billion; and the 12 Il-76s cost another $500 million.
A source in the Federal Military-Technical Cooperation Service said the lending of money to Indonesia for arms purchases had proven ineffective. He said Rosoboronexport could only finance arms manufacturing projects on Russian territory, and that Venezuela had to pay for personnel training, financing transport and insurance expenses and Rosoboronexport's commission fee.
Analysts said President Chavez would not declare war on Colombia or any other country in the near future. "He is just another saber rattler," a senior official at the Federal Military-Technical Cooperation Service told the paper.
Vedomosti
Volkswagen to beat its competitors in Russia
In 18 months, Volkswagen plans to assemble its new model in Kaluga costing $10,000. It will take over half of the Kaluga plant's annual capacity of 150,000 cars.
A low-budget model, which is being designed on the Volkswagen Polo platform specially for Russia, may run off the Kaluga plant's assembly line at the end of next year, said Ulrich Hackenberg, Volkswagen's executive vice president.
It will be a "spacious and comfortable car" with a sedan body. The car will have a 1.4 liter or 1.6 liter engine and cost no more than $10,000, Hackenberg promises. He did not disclose the car's other parameters but said that in the future it would account for half of all cars manufactured in Kaluga - 75,000 out of 150,000 a year.
If Volkswagen keeps its promise, its model will have no competition in Russia, for cars of a similar class are more expensive. Moreover, the German concern may seize part of the Lada Kalina and Samara markets.
Oksana Nazarova, a spokeswoman for the Renault concern, admits that the Volkswagen may become a rival for the Logan. However, low-budget B and C class models are a fast-growing market segment, which has room for everyone. The AvtoVAZ spokesman refused to comment.
The plans of other car manufacturers who announced their intention to develop an economy class model are far from the implementation stage.
Toru Saito, head of Nissan's East European office, thinks that the capacities of its plant in St. Petersburg could be expanded by a low-budget model. This will not be too soon: the plant with an annual capacity of 50,000 cars will be commissioned in 2009 and it will first produce X-Trail and Teana models.
Katsuaki Watanabe, Toyota's president, said a year ago that his concern was designing a low-budget car for the markets of Russia, Brazil, India and China.
However, Tatyana Rusakova of Toyota in Russia says that no decision has been taken yet on the manufacture of another Toyota model in Russia.
GM has not decided either when it will make low-budget cars in Russia, says Agnes Rona of GM.
"A Volkswagen for $10,000 is a good move," says Vladislav Tsvetkov, managing partner of the Marketing and Investment Projects. In his opinion, this will be the price for sufficiently equipped cars whose share in sales will not exceed 1%, while most cars will be sold for $11,000-$12,000.
Gazeta.ru
Russian Olympic Committee sues Total over old debts
The Russian Olympic Committee has accused one of the world's largest energy companies of failing to honor its old obligations and is threatening to sue it for $250 million. But Total is unconcerned in Russia: at any moment Gazprom could come to the French holding's defense.
The Russian Olympic Committee and Panama-based company Blue Rapid are demanding that Total compensate them for losses caused by the refusal of a unit of the French oil and gas holding to take part in an oil exploration and development project in Russia. Actually, the plaintiffs are filing their claim not so much against Total as against Elf Aquitaine (which the corporation acquired in 2000). In the 1990s, the company planned to prospect for oil in the Lower Volga area.
"In the early 1990s, a lot of things were happening in Russia," said ROC president Leonid Tyagachev. "We shared common projects, contracts and agreements with the French side."
Now the ROC is trying to get back what is legally its own, Tyagachev said. The total amount could reach an estimated $250 million.
In the 1990s, Russia made some surprising decision combinations. The government, for example, would give privileges to its subordinate structures to earn their own upkeep. Such a structure would usually spawn a firm to take advantage of such privileges. Customs breaks were particularly popular: a staff member at one of the American companies that operated in Russia in the 1990s told this newspaper that vast shipments of office equipment were "cleared" through research institutes, societies for the disabled, and even law enforcement agencies.
"Sports sponsorship and financing of the ROC and main sports federations was widespread at the time," said Dmitry Abzalov, an analyst from the Center for Current Politics. "Sponsorship was a kind of tax, a sort of public undertaking by fulfilling which companies could expect some preferential treatment. Construction of sports facilities by large companies (oil companies in the first place) was a typical clause in a license agreement."
The claim being filed by the ROC, in the analyst's view, is not threatening Total's activities in Russia. "The company works hand in glove with Gazprom," Abzalov said. "It holds a license for the development of the Kharyaginsky oil deposit, one of the largest in Russia. Authorities have left Kharyaginsky alone, unlike Kovykta, which TNK-BP was forced to give up to Gazprom. This is an indication that so far Total has nothing to fear in Russia."
Vedomosti
Gazprom accused of creating problems for TNK-BP
Sources say that the Federal Security Service (FSB), which conducted a search at the premises of Russia's third largest oil company, TNK-BP, on March 19, was looking for documents related to Gazprom. The energy giant had allegedly complained about a possible leak of confidential data by TNK-BP.
On March 12, the Zaslavsky brothers, Ilya, who works in TNK-BP Management, and Alexander, president of the British Alumni Club, were detained on charges of industrial espionage.
The FSB "examined heaps of documents looking for the key word, Gazprom," said one of the sources.
Gazprom allegedly arrived at the conclusion during recent talks that foreign companies know too much about the gas monopoly, which pointed to a possible leak of confidential information, said another source.
TNK-BP chief executive Robert Dudley said yesterday the law-enforcement agencies were looking for documents containing confidential information about a state-controlled oil and gas company.
A source close to the gas giant told the popular daily Vedomosti that Gazprom had informed the security agencies early this year about a suspected leak of confidential information. The source did not say who was suspected; two Gazprom managers claim the monopoly has not appealed to the FSB and is not connected with the searches in TNK-BP.
Gazprom and TNK-BP have refused to comment on the situation.
Another Gazprom manager believes that TNK-BP's problems are connected with conflicts between the Russian and British shareholders. BP allegedly wants to invest profits in development, while the Russian shareholders want them to be paid out as dividends.
A Russian investment banker who is cooperating with BP confirmed the latter information. There are problems between shareholders, including over financial issues, said a source closely linked to a co-owner of Russian conglomerate Alfa Group. But this does not mean there is a major corporate conflict, he said.
Another source in Alfa Group said TNK-BP's problems are connected with politics, not business.
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