MOSCOW, April 18 (RIA Novosti) Moscow acts on its anti-NATO rhetoric/ West won't restore Georgia's right to lost territories/ Gazprom moves to Africa to attack southern Europe/ LUKoil will resume talks with Slovenia's Petrol/ Foreign companies vying for Russian Railways contract/ Vainshtok resigns as Olympic chief
Kommersant
Moscow acts on its anti-NATO rhetoric
Following President Vladimir Putin's instructions to development relations with Abkhazia and South Ossetia as with Russian regions, Georgia has accused the Kremlin of trying to annex the regions. The West has expressed its concern over Russia's decision and supported Georgia's territorial integrity.
Moscow does not intend to recognize or annex the two breakaway Georgian republics, and Putin's instructions were not designed to cause confrontation with Georgia.
The Kremlin had warned that it would review its relations with breakaway republics in the CIS after the proclamation of Kosovo's independence and its subsequent recognition by leading Western powers. But it put off the implementation of its plans until after the NATO summit in Bucharest in early April.
When the United States forced NATO to pledge to admit Ukraine and Georgia, Moscow said it would do its best to prevent this. Putin's instructions are the first step towards this goal.
Tbilisi can either pretend not to notice the legalization of Abkhazia and South Ossetia's subordination to Russia, or take tough measures that will worsen the situation. Either decision will not facilitate its admission to NATO.
Putin's initiative will also affect Western Europe, in particular the countries that blocked the invitation of Georgia and Ukraine to NATO's Membership Action Plan (MAP). Western Europe can now blame the United States for deteriorating relations with Russia, and warn against admitting the two countries to NATO too early, especially because it will be very difficult to take response actions against Russia now.
However, Putin's initiative will hit Ukraine the hardest. Apart from toughening its policy regarding Georgia, the Kremlin is working to improve relations with Moldova, which may get a chance to reincorporate the breakaway region of Transdnestr if it refuses to join NATO.
This move is designed to show to Ukraine that many of its problems could be settled if it reviewed its decision to join NATO, whereas a pro-NATO policy might encourage the Russian president to make unpopular decisions regarding the Russian-speaking population of the Crimea and the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine.
Vremya Novostei
West won't restore Georgia's right to lost territories
Georgia, an ex-Soviet republic in the Caucasus, demanded Thursday that Russia cancel its recent decisions to support Abkhazia and South Ossetia. President Mikheil Saakashvili said he had "Western support" on the issue.
Moscow, in turn, has started voicing the idea that it might have to make the "hard" decision to recognize the self-proclaimed states' independence as early as next spring.
Georgy Khukhashvili, a Tbilisi political analyst, said he had the impression that Russia was the one to benefit the most from the Kovoso precedent. "Moscow has been very clear with us: if Georgia wishes to join NATO, good riddance, only it should leave Abkhazia and South Ossetia behind," he said.
"The West has almost run out of resources which could help it prevent this course of developments, and Georgia's further disintegration might become irreversible," the analyst went on to say. At this stage, Moscow may well make Georgia face a choice between integrating with Russia instead of Europe or losing part of its territory.
Akaky Asatiani, leader of the opposition Union of Georgian Traditionalists, said Russia was clearly building on the Kosovo experience. "But Saakashvili shouldn't fuel anti-Russian sentiment either. He is the one to blame. He has uttered nothing but threats with regard to Abkhazia and South Ossetia for the past four years," he added.
He also said what Georgia should do is "sit down together with Russia and talk openly: we'll agree to consider neutrality in exchange for a restitution of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. A barter deal, crude but effective. The West won't help us get the territories back!"
"Saakashvili has had enough time to try and normalize relations with Abkhazia and South Ossetia during his first tenure," echoes Alexei Ostrovsky, head of the Russian parliamentary committee on CIS affairs. "However, he opted for ordering occasional armed operations against them, which obviously exacerbated tensions and provoked Russia into more active protection of its nationals living in the self-proclaimed republics," he said.
Deputy speaker of Russia's State Duma, Yury Volkov, said that Russia should recognize the two republics' independence no later than next spring because the 60th anniversary NATO summit is slated for spring 2009, and it will focus, among other things, on the future of Georgia and Ukraine.
"Since those countries' governments are unlikely to abandon their plans to get under NATO's 'umbrella,' Russia will either have to put up with mushrooming NATO bases along its border and with certain post-Soviet republics acceding to unfriendly regimes, or to try and curb that dangerous chance," he said, however admitting that to recognize Abkhazia's and South Ossetia's independence would be a "hard" decision for Russia.
Gazeta/Kommersant
Gazprom moves to Africa to attack southern Europe
Gazprom and Libya's National Oil Corporation have signed a cooperation memorandum and discussed some joint projects. Implementation of the gas monopoly's plans will strengthen its standing not only in Africa but also in southern Europe.
Libya promised Russia not only resource-related but also political support on the world energy market. At a lunch given in honor of Vladimir Putin, the Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi said Libya welcomed the idea of giving legal shape to a new organization of gas exporting countries based on OPEC.
Gazprom plans to join the Green Stream project (50% owned by Italy's Eni), which is to link Africa and Europe (from Libya to Sicily), and is considering the option of a gas pipeline to run in parallel.
Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller said Eni was taking part in the development of a very large oil and gas field in Libya. "With the asset swapping agreements Gazprom has with Eni, we expect to share in these projects," he said.
Mikhail Korchemkin, director of East European Gas Analysis, said that Gazprom's segment of global gas output would fall from 19% in 2007 to 13% in 2030. "Gazprom can keep its influence on world markets only by selling gas produced in other countries," he said. "Libya is therefore interesting to it not only as a tappable resource, but perhaps also as a transit country for the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline from Nigeria, which has more proven reserves than Turkmenistan."
Analysts say that the agreements Gazprom reached in Libya could set the European community seriously agog, worried as it is by Gazprom's growing international stance. "Gazprom's participation in the Libyan gas projects will enable it to enter south European markets, where its holding is as yet weak," said Tamara Kasyanova, director general of the independent consulting group 2K Audit - Business Consulting.
"Gazprom is serially concluding agreements with all energy suppliers to Europe. This enables it to coordinate exporters' interests and increase the country's impact on the gas market in Europe," said Timur Khairullin, a senior analyst with the AntantaPioglobal investment company.
Eni is likely to act as a guide for the Russian monopoly, pointing the way to Europe. The company that played no small role in stripping the bankrupt Yukos company expects to get some appetizing assets in Russia. In exchange, it is prepared to share with Gazprom everything it has.
RBC Daily
LUKoil will resume talks with Slovenia's Petrol
LUKoil, Russia's largest private oil producer, will resume talks on establishing a joint venture with Slovenia's Petrol d.d. Ljubljana to sell gasoline in the Balkans.
The talks, which began in 2006, but were suspended in December 2007, will resume after the May 15 shareholder meeting of the Slovenian company.
It was rumored that the sides had failed to agree on the sum to be contributed by each company to the joint venture. Analysts say the Slovenian company has become more compliant since after its shares plunged by almost 50% in the first quarter of 2008.
Petrol has 305 filling stations in Slovenia, 33 in Bosnia and Herzegovina, 21 in Croatia and two in Serbia. Its current capitalization is approximately $1 billion. According to Bloomberg, its shares have lost nearly 50% since it suspended talks with LUKoil.
Under the framework agreement singed in 2006, Petrol will own a 51% stake in the joint venture to be managed on a parity basis. Petrol will contribute the authorized capitals of four companies owning filling stations in Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Serbia to the joint venture. LUKoil's share will consist of the shares of its subsidiaries, LUKoil-Beopetrol (Serbia) and LUKoil-Macedonia.
LUKoil is interested in the Balkans where profits are easier to achieve than in Eastern Europe. It has assets in Romania, Serbia and Macedonia, as well as about 74% of Bulgaria's wholesale petrochemicals market.
Artyom Konchin, an analyst at UniCredit Aton, part of the international Unicredit Group, said LUKoil had been strengthening its presence in Eastern Europe because retail profitability was higher there.
Natalia Milchakova, head of the fundamental analysis department at the Otkrytie financial corporation, said the LUKoil-Petrol partnership depends on LUKoil. Petrol needs a new strategic partner, and LUKoil may lose it to other market players, such as Gazprom Neft, the oil arm of Russian energy giant Gazprom, which has assets in the region.
Vedomosti
Foreign companies vying for Russian Railways contract
On Thursday, Mikhail Akulov, vice president of transport monopoly Russian Railways (RZD), said France's Alstom Transport, Bombardier Transportation of Canada and Finland's Transtech manufacturing rapid transit systems planned to bid in a RZD tender for the production of 200 double-decker railcars per year.
Prospective bidders will have to submit their proposals by April 30; and the winner will be announced by May 30.
Transtech was unavailable for comment on Thursday. Alstom Transport and Bombardier Transportation spokespersons Cecile Dodat and Alexander Bocharov said their companies had received all bidding documents.
The company will submit its proposals to RZD on April 30, Dodat told the paper.
RZD or an affiliated company would establish a joint venture with the winner. On April 15, the corporate board of directors examined a federal program to increase the number of long-range rail passengers by 2015 and decided that RZD would have to acquire 1,210 double-decker railcars in the next six years.
Previously, Bombardier said it had a contract to supply 37 double-decker railcars worth $2 million each to Koleje Mazowieckie operating a suburban network in Poland's Mazovia region.
Mikhail Pak, an analyst at the Capital investment company, said the entire project could cost $220-250 million, and that the bidders would now start fighting for the guaranteed RZD contract.
Gazeta.ru/Nezavisimaya Gazeta/Business & Financial Markets
Vainshtok resigns as Olympic chief
Semyon Vainshtok, the head of the Olimpstroi state corporation responsible for preparing Sochi for the 2014 Winter Olympics, resigned abruptly Thursday, amid accusations of mismanagement and cost overruns.
Viktor Kolodyazhny, the mayor of Sochi, was named as Vainshtok's replacement.
The latter's departure, just seven months after being appointed to the job, came after months of criticism from lawmakers and state officials, who said the cost of preparations for the Olympics had ballooned to nearly $12 billion.
Vainshtok insisted that he had done what was expected of him, and that it was time to step aside.
Analysts explained Vainshtok's decision by the fact that he would be unable to prepare for the Olympics on time.
Officials sought to downplay Vainshtok's resignation, saying it was planned six months ago. However, sources close to the Olimpstroi supervisory council said Vainshtok had visited Sochi immediately after his appointment, assessed the project's scale and submitted his resignation to President Putin after returning to Moscow.
"Putin reportedly told Vainshtok to continue working," a well-informed source told the paper.
A source in Olimpstroi said rumors of Vainshtok's possible resignation began to circulate long ago. The most plausible explanation implies that Vainshtok had difficulty reaching an agreement on land issues with the regional elite.
"Vainshtok probably did not want to deal with this tangled knot of interests," the source told the paper.
Analysts said they doubted whether Kolodyazhny would succeed where Vainshtok had failed. Federal authorities face the difficult task of demolishing wealthy people's mansions in a nearby national preserve, while trying to avoid an open conflict.
"It appears that Vainshtok has realized that the Olympic project cannot be implemented under the existing state system and has decided to call it quits," Mikhail Delyagin, director at the Institute for Globalization Studies, told the paper.
Delyagin said the future was bleak for the 2014 Sochi Olympics. "I know nothing about Kolodyazhny, but I know that the city lacks a modern sewage system," he told the paper.
He said Russia should better forget all about the upcoming Olympics unless the situation changed. "On two occasions, the Winter Olympics had to be moved to other locations because the original sites were not ready; and Sochi could become another precedent," Delyagin said.
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