MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Andrei Fedyashin) - A pre-term parliamentary election did not bring stability to Serbia.
The country has not seen stability, for that matter, ever since Milosevic's regime was overthrown and multiparty democracy was put in place. No party has stayed in power longer than a year.
Seven parliaments have been swept off by big and small crises since 2000. Now, the eighth Skupstina will have a hard time forming a government. No party will have a large enough majority necessary for easy rule. That was clear even before the elections, and became even clearer on the evening of the election day. The final official figures will be announced no later than May 15.
The situation is inevitable in a country harassed by problems brewing inside and outside its borders for over ten years. The Kosovo situation has further exacerbated the split into pro-Westerners and nationalists. Serbian instability has a long history since instability in the Balkans is usually whipped up deliberately.
Every party had a chance to get seats in parliament, and none won an overwhelming majority, according to preliminary figures. President Boris Tadic's Coalition for a European Serbia received 38.7% of the vote and 102 seats; Tomislav Nikolic's Serbian Radical Party 29.2% with 77 seats, at most; former Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica's bloc of the Democratic and New Serbia parties (the latter led by Velimir Ilic) has 11.3% with a tentative 30 seats; Socialists (Milosevic's former party), led by Ivica Dadic, 7.6% and up to 20 seats; and the Liberal Democrats-the only party approving the secession of Kosovo-will have 14 seats, at the most. Ethnic minority parties bring up the rear with a total of 7 seats.
Tadic is claiming victory, and says he has started talks on a coalition Cabinet. This is wishful thinking since he is desperately short of allies. Resolute pro-Westerners of the Liberal Democratic Party are his only reliable partners at the moment. The two will not have a majority in the parliament of 250 members. Radical leader Nikolic is also determined to form the government. If he joins hands with Kostunica's Democrats and Ilic's Socialists, they will have a flimsy but real majority of 127, at the least.
Meanwhile, almost all European Union leaders have congratulated President Tadic. It is hard to find a more striking instance of EU intervention in any other European election campaign. This intervention, politely described as "stimulation," did a lot for Tadic.
The EU and Serbia signed a Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) less than two weeks before the parliamentary elections. It was regarded as an initial step toward talks on Serbia joining the EU. Serbia got the promise of simplified visa regulations, and European Commission Vice President Jacques Barrot said a week before the elections that Serbia's isolation had finally ended. No one has ever mentioned a proviso for Serbian membership in the EU-the government must assist the Hague Tribunal in finding the war criminals who are still at large. This mainly refers to the arrest and extradition of Bosnian Serb leader General Radko Mladic, who still remains an idol to many Serbs.
Hearty support of Tadic makes other Balkan EU applicants envious. Macedonia, for one, adapted its legislation, domestic policy, economy, trade, finance and everything else to European standards a fairly long time ago. Now, it says it is baffled-Serbia has not even done 10% of what it has achieved, but is now the surest next EU candidate.
All this is hardly fair play, but then, the EU has a point. It has the right to choose its new members. Besides, there was something worse in the elections-an anti-Russian undercurrent.
President Tadic and the EU leadership both openly referred to the elections as not only a Serbian domestic event but also a symbolic crossroads: will Serbia choose a future with the EU or regress as Russia's satellite? Meanwhile, an overwhelming majority of Serbs have long made their choice in favor of the EU. Even despite the Serbian saying "God in heaven and Russia on Earth," they see that Moscow cannot grant them the benefits offered by Brussels. All Serbian political parties want their country to join the EU-and Russia has no objections.
Still, we cannot be sure that none other than Tadic will form the new Cabinet. The law stipulates a 90-day deadline after the first parliamentary meeting for forming the government. The meeting must be held no later than June 15, so Serbs may get a new government as late as September, especially considering that the Balkans do everything positive at snail's pace, and create problems in everything. Only conflicts flare up in no time at all in that part of the world.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
