The only positive result of the armed stand-off is that the opposing parties have once again managed to avoid an all-out civil war.
On Tuesday, the Lebanese government outlawed the Hezbollah mobile-phone network and tried to shut it down. Lebanese authorities also sacked a Hezbollah official in charge of Beirut airport's security service.
This triggered the violence. Seyid Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary-General of Hezbollah, said the Lebanese government, expressing U.S. and Israeli interests, had declared war on him. Hezbollah militants promptly sealed off West Beirut, where Lebanese Shiites live, and the road to the Beirut international airport.
At least 48 people were killed in the ensuing clashes. But Hezbollah units withdrew after negotiations with the government. The Lebanese army, which comprises representatives of all national religions and mediates in all current domestic political disputes, subsequently occupied their positions.
The Lebanese Army Commander, General Michel Suleiman, is seen as a unifying figure in the run-up to the presidential elections. Suleiman is supported by the parliamentary majority, Hezbollah, Amal, another Shiite movement, and the incumbent Lebanese Christian leader, General Michel Aoun, who signed a cooperation agreement with Hezbollah in 2006.
Presidential elections have been postponed 17 times in the last six months. A candidate must have the support of two-thirds of parliament in order to be elected president. The pro-western alliance that holds the parliamentary majority is just 2-3 votes away from electing its candidate. Hezbollah, Amal and General Aoun say they are ready to make concessions, but also demand several government posts held by the pro-Western coalition.
This mutual intractability can be explained by the fact that Lebanon's politicians are all caught up in the great Middle East geopolitical game. The West, especially the United States, Britain and France, back the secular government of Fouad Siniora, whereas Iran and Syria prefer to deal with Hezbollah.
Syria has always considered Lebanon its sphere of influence. Damascus repeatedly disengaged belligerent groups from 1975 till 1990. In 2005, Syria finally bowed to Western pressure and withdrew its forces from Lebanon, but received nothing in return. Damascus was then accused of masterminding the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
Disgruntled at this treatment, Syria has reportedly stepped up both covert and open support for the Lebanese opposition. But Hezbollah is controlled not by Damascus but by Tehran, which wants to be a regional leader and would like to turn Lebanon into an Iranian-style Islamic state.
The United States, Britain and France, who consider Hezbollah a major headache, are determined not to allow this to happen. They will stand by their staunch ally -Siniora's government.
On May 11, Arab League foreign ministers urged the warring Lebanese sides to stop fighting immediately, and promised to send a delegation to broker a settlement.
The delegation will be headed by Qatari Prime Minister Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, who is known to have good relations with Hezbollah.
The ministers called on the two sides to take part in another round of talks under the auspices of the Arab League.
As before, the Arab League proposed electing General Suleiman president, forming a government of national unity and passing new election legislation.
Although Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa has frequently visited Beirut in the last few months, his efforts have so far proved fruitless.
The current crisis has its roots in problems at the very foundations of the Lebanese political system - and until they are addressed, Mr Amr Moussa's diplomacy is unlikely to make progress.
When Lebanon gained independence from France in 1943, the country's three main religious communities divided power between them in an unwritten agreement. This "National Pact" still underpins the political foundations of modern Lebanon. Based on the 1932 population census, seats in parliament were divided on a 6-to-5 ratio between Christians and Muslims. In 1990 the ratio changed to half and half.
The pact also divided the highest offices of state along religious lines. The president is meant to be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of parliament a Shiite.
This model remains the cornerstone of the Lebanese political system, but the population it was designed to represent has shifted.
The Muslim population of Lebanon has grown considerably since 1943; and Shiite Muslims in particular feel that the existing ratios discriminate against them. Any general elections would be fraught with the risk of civil war, until this problem is solved.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
