MOSCOW, May 13 (RIA Novosti)
Putin forms Cabinet, analysts wonder who runs the country / Medvedev's first term may become Putin's third term / ITC Minister Reiman loses his post / Serbia opts for Europe / Megafon to invest 3 billion euros in Iran / Judge admits to Kremlin pressure /
Gazeta.ru
Putin forms Cabinet, analysts wonder who runs the country
The new appointments in the Cabinet and in the Kremlin have failed to provide a clear vision of who will have real power and how the state machine will work from now on.
One obvious conclusion to be made if one looks at the list of new appointees is that the present government's personnel policy is no different from the old one, based on preserving the entourage without focusing on specific personalities or posts.
One way or another, all of the Putin team members of any significance, often coming from opposing political "clans," were given offices within the new configuration of power. Putin evacuated some of them to the Cabinet (Igor Shuvalov and Igor Sechin), others remained in the new Cabinet (Viktor Zubkov, Anatoly Serdyukov, Sergei Shoigu, and Rashid Nurgaliyev), while still others were transferred to a range of government institutions (Sergei Naryshkin and Nikolai Patrushev).
Interestingly, their formal powers and offices do not give the right idea of the real extent of their future influence on making the key decisions in the country. The same situation was common during Putin's tenure: the head of his Kremlin office clearly had fewer real powers than some of his deputies. The same, in fact, held true for the prime minister. But the next premier is not to be worried about - he can certainly look after himself.
It is still unclear how real powers will be distributed between the Kremlin and the government, as power in Russia does not belong to government institutions - it belongs to specific people. It is too early to judge whether former security chief Nikolai Patrushev's appointment as secretary of the Russian Security Council is a political retirement, or maybe the Security Council will reemerge as a highly influential body. Formally, it is subordinated directly to the president, but the Kremlin clan (of which Patrushev is a member) could try and use it as an instrument in its fight against opponents.
In other words, the new appointments have not made it clearer how the Putin-Medvedev tandem will work. None of the key figures on Putin's team have been left out this time, and none of the potentially influential politicians were recruited for the Kremlin by Medvedev.
Vedomosti
Medvedev's first term may become Putin's third term
The lineup of forces in the new Russian government indicates that Dmitry Medvedev's first presidential term may become Vladimir Putin's third term, a Russian political analyst writes in the popular daily Vedomosti.
According to Konstantin Simonov, head of Russia's National Energy Security Fund, the key appointments, including to the post of chief of the presidential staff, were apparently proposed by Putin. Only Justice Minister Alexander Konovalov, former presidential envoy in the Volga Federal District, can be seen as 'Medvedev's man.'
Putin has preserved the main groups that developed during his rule, keeping the key figures and only shifting some of them to higher or comparable posts. As Simonov writes, Putin is moving from a system of checks and balances in elite groups to intertwining them.
Igor Sechin, former deputy head of the Kremlin administration, has been appointed deputy prime minister responsible for the real economy sector (with some exceptions). He has also been put in charge of natural resources and so is in for difficult relations with Natural Resources Minister Yuri Trutnev, who has no liking for the state-controlled oil company Rosneft.
Viktor Ustinov has lost his post of justice minister. Nikolai Patrushev, former head of the FSB and a political ally of Sechin, has been appointed head of the Russian Security Council, which will supervise all the security-related agencies.
Sechin will keep his post of director of Rosneft. This promises to prove interesting, as far as relations go with Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, previously Putin's top economic adviser, who has been put in charge of state property and antimonopoly policy.
Another matter for intrigue will be Shuvalov's relations with Viktor Zubkov, the new head of the board of directors of the energy giant Gazprom. In fact, Zubkov is likely to take over all of Dmitry Medvedev's former posts, including the post of first deputy prime minister.
The situation with state-owned companies and corporations promises to be very interesting. None of their heads have been offered posts in the government, which means that Putin wants to control them. He does not intend to allow state-owned companies and corporations to become independent and therefore uncontrollable players. So we can expect wars and conflicts between state corporations and the government.
The fact that Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has preserved the post of deputy prime minister is a bad sign for state corporations, Simonov writes.
And one more thing: only officials who are members of close-knit groups survive reshuffles, while those who think they can act independently usually fall victim to their arrogance. This is why Viktor Khristenko has kept a ministerial post, even though his ministry has been halved, while Leonid Reiman, former IT and Communications Minister, has not.
Kommersant, Vedomosti
ITC Minister Reiman loses his post
One of the biggest surprises of the government reshuffle was the replacement of Leonid Reiman, who has been IT and Communications Minister since 1999, with Igor Shchyogolev, former head of the presidential protocol service.
Market players say the appointment will put an equal distance between Shchyogolev and all the players, in part because he will be charged with privatizing the state telecoms holding, Svyazinvest.
Reiman became the ITC Minister in August 1999, when Vladimir Putin was appointed Prime Minister. Before that, he was first deputy director general of the Leningrad (St. Petersburg) City Telephone Network. In 1998, Lyudmila Putin worked in the Telecominvest holding, set up on Reiman's initiative in 1994 to control the subsidiaries of the Petersburg City Telephone Network.
Analysts have a mixed opinion of Shchyogolev.
Nadezhda Golubeva, an analyst at UniCredit Aton, part of the international UniCredit Group, said: "A man who has no experience in the telecoms business and therefore doesn't have a team of communication managers has been appointed to head a totally new ministry, [which takes over the powers of the IT and Communications Ministry and the Ministry of Culture and Mass Communications]. Therefore, I think the ministry will be in fact guided by the current ministry officials, i.e., Leonid Reiman's team."
Boris Reznik, deputy chairman of the parliamentary committee on information technologies and communications, said the ministry would be set new tasks, mostly political ones.
Alexander Izosimov, director general of mobile operator VimpelCom, said he hopes the new ministry will focus on the development of broadband Internet access.
Ivan Shuvalov, a leading analyst at the Alfa Bank, said Shchyogolev had been appointed because he is equally distant from all groups in the telecoms sector and will therefore be able to privatize Svyazinvest on the most favorable conditions for the state.
Reiman is reputedly connected with the so-called St. Petersburg communications group.
"If the privatization [of Svyazinvest] goes well, [Shchyogolev] will be thanked," Shuvalov said. "If not, he will be blamed for its failure."
Vedomosti, Vremya Novostei
Serbia opts for Europe
Serbia has opted for rapprochement with Europe. Even the loss of Kosovo, which left many Serbs angry, has not embittered them strongly enough to adopt an anti-European policy. Despite certain forecasts, the no-visa regime with the European Union, preferential treatment in trade issues, coupled with the prospect of eventually becoming part of Europe, must have proved more powerful factors than territorial losses and old grudges. On the whole, Serbian society must have realized it had no alternative but to integrate with Europe.
The time when Russia used to provide free assistance to "fraternal" Slavic peoples is history now. True, Russia did support Serbia by vetoing the Kosovo issue in the UN Security Council. But that was followed by agreements to build the South Stream gas bypass and an underground storage tank, and the acquisition of Serbia's biggest oil company, NIS, by Gazprom Neft.
Naturally keen for a better bargain, Serbia chose a deal with Europe. It only remains to agree on the pace of integration and on additional preferences that the Serbian government will be able to squeeze from the EU in exchange for dropping great-power ambitions.
Yelena Guskova, head of the Balkans crisis center at the Institute of Slavic Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said we should not jump to conclusions, but wait until the Serbian government is formed. She said there are different opinions on the victory of which of the Serbian political forces would benefit Russia most. Some say it would be easier to make Boris Tadic pro-Russian than to tame Tomislav Nikolic's radicalism. In any case, Russian-Serbian cooperation will continue, Guskova concluded.
RBK daily
Megafon to invest 3 billion euros in Iran
Megafon, a major Russian mobile phone operator, has opened an office in Iran after complying with the requirement to get a license for its core activity in that country. The company is ready to invest about 3 billion euros if it wins the forthcoming tender. This money will help the Russian player, one among the three major Russian telecommunications companies, to get a foothold in Iran. However, it will take time for the operator to recoup its investments, analysts say.
At present, only several employees will work at the Megafon office in Iran. Neither the terms of the tender, nor the package of licenses to be put up for tender, have been announced yet. It may be a usual GSM license, or a package of licenses for both GSM and 3G networks, says Tatyana Zvereva, head of Megafon's department for contacts with the media.
According to a source close to Megafon, the company is not likely to get a controlling stake in the future cellular operator in Iran. The Iranian government will not give control over its mobile phone operator to a foreign company, the source says.
Earlier, Sergei Soldatenkov, Megafon's director general, said that only Iran and Africa still have assets that are not 'overheated', which explains the Russian operator's interest in this market. "Iran outpaces Russia in terms of population growth which, together with economic stability, makes the Iranian market rather attractive for the development of mobile phone communications," Soldatenkov said on May 12, 2008.
"Megafon's investments are unprecedented; they are comparable only with the operator's capital expenditure on the Russian market," says Yevgeny Solomatin, Cominfo Consulting's director for development. This is connected with the fact that the Iranian market is highly competitive and the price of an "entry ticket" to it is high. Besides, it is important to understand the structure of investments: what will be spent on the license, on infrastructure development, the sales network, etc. "We hope the Megafon management will invest this huge sum thoughtfully, and it will certainly adjust it later," Solomatin said, adding that the necessary funds will come from current capital and loans, and also from the reinvestment of potential profits from operations in Iran.
"Megafon will start its work in Iran from scratch, and the volume of investments shows that the operator's intentions are serious," says Maxim Savvatin, an analyst at iKS-Consulting. Such capital costs will allow Megafon to get a foothold on the local market, but it will not return its investments soon," the analyst concludes. According to iKS-Consulting, foreign companies account for about 45% of the Iranian market.
Kommersant
Judge admits to Kremlin pressure
A senior judge admitted for the first time yesterday to Kremlin pressure on the Russian judicial system.
Yelena Valyavina, first deputy chair of the Supreme Arbitration Court since October 2005, was summoned to Moscow's Dorogomilovsky Court to testify in a libel case brought by Valery Boyev, a personnel and state decorations assistant in the Kremlin administration, against TV and radio anchorman Vladimir Solovyov, who said that authorities interfered in the work of the courts.
Boyev's department was supervised by presidential aide Viktor Ivanov.
Valyavina said yesterday that in autumn 2005, Boyev asked her to annul interlocutory judgments regarding the Togliattiazot nitrogen plant. When she refused to comply, the Kremlin official threatened her with difficulties connected to reappointment to her post.
The judge also spoke of Boyev's role in the appointment of judges: "As a representative of the presidential administration, he attends the sittings of the Supreme Judges Qualification Board, where he can make public certain information, and also influences the appointment of judges."
She said judges feared they would not receive the state decorations they deserve for sticking to principles.
"If the facts made public by Yelena Valyavina are proved to be correct, [Boyev's] civil case may become a criminal one," said defendant Solovyov.
Lawyers say there are reasons for this.
Vadim Vinogradov, head of the chair of state, international and European law at the Justice Ministry's Law Academy, said: "The prosecutor office must check the witness's testimony and, if the facts she cited turn out to be correct, open a criminal case regarding the pressurizing of courts. Responsibility for this violation is stipulated in Article 294 of the Criminal Code, with a maximum sentence of up to two years in prison."
Valyavina's testimony in court is an unprecedented event.
"Testimony by such a high-ranking official is a unique event, even though not extraordinary in a state ruled by law," Vinogradov said.
Yuli Tai, a lawyer at the Bartholius law firm, said: "It is the first time it has been publicly confirmed that officials from the presidential administration pressurized the country's supreme judicial body."
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