MOSCOW, May 16 (RIA Novosti)
Moscow preparing for Moldova-Transdnestr reunion show/ U.S. may threaten Russia's Arctic ambitions/ Transneft looking for oil to fill BTS-2 pipeline/Software piracy down, losses growing/ Italian company to assemble helicopters in Russia/ Oil pipeline monopoly ready to cut reverse transportation tariff
Kommersant
Moscow preparing for Moldova-Transdnestr reunion show
The Kremlin is getting ready to draw a line under the conflict between Moldova and its breakaway region of Transdnestr and to reunite the divided country. If the plan succeeds, Russia will be able to prove to the entire world that dropping NATO accession plans is a way to restoring territorial integrity.
In March, Russia's Foreign Ministry and parliament said the Transdnestr conflict could be viewed as the most promising in the CIS, meaning a peaceful settlement was possible there. After that, the Russian government began putting efforts to bring closer the positions of Chisinau and Tiraspol. Officials in Moscow view Transdnestr a serious foreign political project, which could help them demonstrate Russia's peacemaking ability to the world, which would be especially wise in the context of the latest Kosovo developments. "We see assistance in uniting Moldova as our historic mission," Nikolai Fomin, a foreign ministry official responsible for CIS affairs, told Kommersant.
Moscow has clearly decided to push ahead and fulfill its historic mission. Sources in the Kremlin executive office predict an early breakthrough in Transdnestr, led by Russia's ruling tandem, President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.
"Moscow is preparing a meeting between [Moldovan President Vladimir] Voronin and [Transdnestr leader Igor] Smirnov in Russia," the source said. "They are supposed to shake hands in the presence of the two Russian leaders and appoint authorized negotiators who will then draw up a political settlement formula and agree on the Transdnestr republic's status."
Speakers of the Moldovan and Transdnestr parliaments, Marian Lupu and Yevgeny Shevchuk, met in Brussels on Wednesday. Both supported an early resumption of the five-plus-two Transdnestr talks, including Moldova, the Transdnestr Republic, OSCE, Russia, Ukraine and observers from the U.S. and the EU. According to the plan, the group will eventually find a solution to the Transdnestr problem.
It is not that Russia is selflessly helping Voronin restore the breakaway region for nothing in return. Officials in Moscow expect Chisinau to confirm internationally Moldova's permanent neutrality, in order to have a reliable guarantee of its non-accession to NATO. The neutral status is stipulated by the Moldovan constitution, but Moscow thinks it is not good enough, and is therefore seeking additional guarantees, especially after Ukraine and Georgia revealed their ambitions to join the North Atlantic alliance.
Voronin is also expected to dissociate himself from the GUAM organization for democracy and economic development. The Moldovan leader pleased the Kremlin in March by announcing a possible withdrawal from that unfriendly association.
After a series of consultations at the Foreign Ministry and the Presidential Executive Office, Igor Smirnov almost abandoned his former belligerent rhetoric with regard to Chisinau and stopped insisting on his republic's recognition following the Kosovo scenario.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
U.S. may threaten Russia's Arctic ambitions
The United States Interior Department managing and conserving most federally owned land and natural resources said that the polar bear needed protection to stop it becoming extinct.
Analysts said this could lead to a ban on all prospecting and mining operations in the disputed 200-km Arctic economic zone.
An estimated 25,000 polar bears now roam the Arctic from Alaska to Greenland. One-fourth of the polar bear population lives in Alaska, northern Russia and Canada.
In the next few decades, the number of polar bears may shrink to 10,000 if negative forecasts come true.
Experts at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute (AEI) said the decision was a serious precedent, and that U.S. environmental organizations would now sue the U.S. government and demand that it stop all activity threatening the existence of polar bears or aggravating current threats.
According to AEI, such lawsuits could lead to a ban on regional prospecting and mining operations and development.
Kamil Bekyashev, head of the international-law chair at the Moscow State Law Academy, said the United States could implement special measures aimed at saving the polar bear population and establish nature preserves in its 200-km national economic zone.
He said the relevant ban would then apply to all North American and other companies.
"Environmentalists are unlikely to stymie prospecting operations on the Arctic shelf because the energy lobby is far more powerful," Ivan Andriyevsky, a managing partner at 2K Audit-Business Consultations, told the paper.
He said possible U.S. bans would not thwart the development of mineral deposits, if Moscow proved the disputed shelf sector to be part of Russian territory.
Bekyashev said it would take Russia about 20 years to convince the international community that its claims are valid. Although the polar bear issue has nothing to do with the Arctic shelf, politicians can use any argument in their own interests, he told the paper.
RBK daily
Transneft looking for oil to fill BTS-2 pipeline
In order to fill the Baltic Transport System-2 (BTS-2) pipeline, state-controlled Transneft plans to use oil currently exported via Ukrainian ports and part of Surgutneftegaz's exports, and also increase oil exports from Kazakhstan.
The BTS-2 pipeline (1,016 km long, with a projected capacity of 50 million metric tons a year) will run from Unecha to Ust-Luga with a leg to Surgutneftegaz's oil refinery in Kirishi. The tentative cost of the project is 78.14 billion rubles ($3.28 billion, or �2.11 billion).
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on May 15 that to fill the BTS-2 pipeline, which is to reduce Russia's dependence on oil transit countries, Transneft would need 30 million tons of crude and 18-20 million tons of oil products. The prime minister noted that foreign partners could also become BTS-2's shareholders.
According to a source close to the former Industry and Energy Ministry, Transneft proposed that 50 million tons of oil for BTS-2 should be found without radically reducing oil transportation via the Druzhba pipeline. It is planning to direct 19 million tons of oil, now delivered to the Ukrainian ports of Yuzhny and Odessa, to BTS-2. Another 12 million tons will be reserved for BTS-2 from Surgutneftegaz's resources (Transneft intends to cut this volume of oil from its export routes). Apart from this, it hopes to receive 10 million tons of oil a year by increasing oil exports from Kazakhstan. By terminating deliveries to the Polish port of Gdansk, it will release another 7 million tons for BTS-2. The remaining 2 million tons will be taken from oil deliveries by rail towards Belarus from the Unecha oil-pumping junction.
Alexander Yershov, an analyst at Reuters, says that Ukraine may get indignant that its ports will be deprived of Russian oil, but after a while the situation will stabilize. Ukraine buys Iraqi oil now and negotiates oil supplies from Kazakhstan. Yershov also says that many European oil refineries, which receive oil from the Druzhba pipeline now, may get oil delivered by sea.
The analyst says that oil companies can save money by rejecting the new pipeline, but then they will pay more for tanker freight. He explained that the greatest danger is that such diversification of oil exports may reduce the price of Urals oil relative to benchmark North Sea BFO in connection with an increase in oil supplies towards north-western Europe. According to his estimates, the Urals price reduction is up to $4.5 per barrel, but when BTS-2 is commissioned, it may rise by 50-100%.
Vedomosti
Software piracy down, losses growing
Russia set a new record in 2007 by cutting the market share of pirated software, according to Business Software Alliance (BSA), although, losses from piracy doubled in dollar terms.
IDC analytical company said in a report that counterfeit applications accounted for 73% of the Russian software market in 2007, down 7% on 2006 levels and 14% on 2002.
The reduction is a record, since none of the other 108 countries researched by IDC was able to cut piracy so drastically, said BSA's legal representative in Russia Anna Petrova.
However, according to IDC, piracy in Russia caused losses of $4.1bn on the industry in 2007, up 88% year on year. BSA explained the surge by the generally high growth of the IT market and the dollar's fall against other currencies.
Petrova said the software piracy has been falling due to efforts by the authorities who introduced harsher penalties for distribution of pirated products and carried out a number of police raids. The police launched a crackdown on piracy after Russia resumed WTO accession talks. Rising oil prices also contributed to boosting licensed software sales, because consumers's incomes grew 22% in 2007, and people largely stopped scrimping and saving on software, the BSA report said.
In Petrova's opinion, the decrease in counterfeit products is largely attributable to the desire by business to come out of the shadows. Piracy obviously went down in the corporate segment, agrees Anna Lavrinova, deputy director of the non-profit partnership of software suppliers. However, she could not deny or confirm IDC's figures because her partnership does not conduct any quantitative research of the piracy market.
The share of piracy is growing, objected Oleg Yashin, the head of the analytical department at the Russian Shield antipiracy association. Although admitting that Russian companies have taken licensing their products more seriously in the past 18 months, and the share of pirated software reduced in the corporate segment, he said that the reduction was compensated by the growth of piracy among home users. He said that many pirates have "moved online," because many users never buy any software, licensed or counterfeit, anyway. They download free applications, and it is simply impossible to evaluate the amount of software spread this way, he added.
RBC Daily
Italian company to assemble helicopters in Russia
On Friday, the Russian aerospace holding company Oboronprom and Italy's helicopter giant AgustaWestland will announce a long-term helicopter-assembly project. But analysts said the project was politically motivated.
Oboronprom will sell the entire line of AgustaWestland helicopters worth $400 million euros in Russia in the next five years and will set up a national service center.
In 2010, AW-139 helicopters will be assembled at a plant owned by Russian helicopter giant Kamov in Lyubertsy outside Moscow.
Although an AW-139 helicopter costs about $8.5 million, Russian import duties increase its end price by 40%. The helicopter has a take-off weight of 6.4 metric tons and can carry up to 15 passengers or 2.8 metric tons of freight.
A source close to the talks said the partners had initially advocated equitable cooperation and did not want to relocate helicopter production to Russia.
According to the source, the holding company Russian Helicopters needs new technology and helicopter-service standards for marketing its products worldwide.
He said AgustaWestland wanted to enter the Russian market and had already signed contracts for 20 helicopters.
Vyacheslav Boguslayev, CEO of Ukrainian aircraft-engine manufacture Motor Sich, said the contract stipulated production of a prototype Kamov Ka-62 helicopter seating 16.
He said the AW-139 had a smaller load-carrying capacity and could not operate in Arctic areas.
"This shows that Russia has not yet formulated a clear helicopter industry policy," Boguslayev told the paper.
Oboronprom said the Ka-62 project required substantial investment, and that AgustaWestland would help launch joint production of a similar helicopter until the former model was upgraded.
In 1995, the Italian company and Kamov tried to develop the Ka-64 civilian helicopter but were forced to mothball the project because the Russian side stopped funding.
The politically motivated AW-139 helicopter-assembly project is sponsored by former Russian President Vladimir Putin and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, a top manager at a Western aircraft company told the paper.
Business & Financial Markets
Oil pipeline monopoly ready to cut reverse transportation tariff
Transneft may cut tariffs for pumping oil in reverse mode from Talakan to the Angarsk Petrochemical Company via Taishet along the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline by 60%.
The proposal to cut the tariff from 2,000 rubles ($83.86) per metric ton to 981.64 rubles ($41.16) on July 1 has been sent to the Federal Tariff Service.
The ESPO pipeline is being built to deliver oil to the Asia-Pacific region. Its first phase, estimated at $14 billion, is due to be completed in late 2009. The second phase will cost $30 billion.
Analysts say Transneft's proposal is reasonable.
Artyom Konchin, an analyst at the Aton investment company, said: "A price of 2,000 rubles per ton does not suit oil companies, which can pay less to deliver oil by alternative routes, by rail or via the port of Primorsk."
The analysts say the new tariff, 981.64 rubles, is also high, but oil companies can pay it because oil prices are very high now.
Transneft's desire to get maximum payment is logical.
"For the project to pay itself back in 50 years, the tariff should be no less than $50," Konchin said, adding that it might be tripled when the pipeline is completed.
Surgutneftegaz and Rosneft stand to gain if the Federal Tariff Service accepts Transneft's proposal, because they plan to start oil deliveries along the pipeline in the reverse mode already this year.
Surgutneftegaz will pump 160,000 metric tons (1.18 million bbl) of oil from the Talakan deposit monthly, and Rosneft is to supply oil from its Vankor field.
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