This is good news. Sooner or later Israel and Syria may sign a peace treaty, but both will have to make concessions, which may considerably change the alignment of political forces in the region. What will Syria and Israel demand of each other, the United States, and other countries? What are they ready to sacrifice for peace?
A whole number of bilateral and regional problems will have to be resolved before Syria and Israel are able to establish peace between them. Here are a few of them.
Territory. "Peace for land" is Syria's main demand, one it first made at a peace conference in Madrid in 1991. During the Arab-Israeli war of 1967, Israel occupied the Golan Heights, and Damascus has been demanding their return for more than 40 years now. Syria and Israel started secret talks on this subject several times, but none have succeeded.
In principle, Israel is ready to leave the Golan Heights, but it demands money for resettling its people into the country's central part. In this respect, Israel can only hope to get U.S. money. Twelve years ago, the Israeli doves - Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and his successor Shimon Peres - talked about a sum of $17 billion, and the Clinton administration was ready to give them the money. But who will pay now, and how much? This time, the mediator is Ankara, rather than Washington.
Water. The waters of the Sea of Galilee (Kinneret) are the main wealth of the Golan Heights. As a result of the 1967 war, Syria lost not only this territory, but also access to its water resources. Considering Israel's size, water is a much bigger problem for it than for Syria. It is no secret that Israel views Lake Kinneret as a strategic freshwater reserve. It is not yet clear how the two countries will divide the lake, or what compensation Israel will demand for the water, which it has been using freely for the last 40 years.
Borders. If Israel agrees to peace with Syria, it will demand security guarantees for its northern border, that is, tranquility in the south of Lebanon. This is one demand Syria may be unable, as well as unwilling, to meet. Such guarantees can only come from Iran, which lavishly and openly funds both Hezbollah and Damascus. In theory, Syria could break its relations with Iran, but it would have to find another sponsor. Damascus would very much like to see Washington in this role, but the latter is only nibbling at the idea. Besides, Uncle Sam will have his own demands, primarily that Syria faithfully follow U.S. policy in the region.
Nuclear security. Though it has neither admitted nor denied it, Israel is widely believed to be the only nuclear power in the Middle East. Tehran's desire for nuclear ambitions - though it has so far denied that its nuclear program has any military purpose -is also common knowledge. But there are also solid grounds to believe that Syria, too, has a secret nuclear program, and that the "mysterious" facility destroyed recently by Israeli bombers was an underground nuclear reactor under construction.
Both Syria and Israel will demand nuclear security guarantees from each other, and from international mediators -- not from Turkey, but from the United States and, possibly, Russia.
Iran's role in the region. As it was already mentioned, Iran is another, and probably the biggest, obstacle Bashar al-Assad will meet on the road to peace with Israel. As a result of the war in Iraq, Iran has become the strongest regional power in the Middle East.
Shiite Iran is a theocratic state and considers itself a messiah to the entire Muslim world. It is trying to spread its influence to all Arab countries, much to the indignation of the Sunni states, primarily Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Assad and his clan are Alavites, a small Shiite sect, whereas the majority of the Syrian population is Sunni. Hezbollah in Lebanon are also Shiites. All other Arab countries are ruled by Sunni Muslims.
Before the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon, Damascus and Tehran considered themselves key political players on the Lebanese political scene. After the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, and Syrian troop pullout, Damascus's power over Beirut was shattered - but not lost. The pro-Iranian, Shiite Hezbollah is the main instrument of this influence. Will Assad be able to break Tehran's embrace? Will he choose to do so? Until now he has resolutely rejected the idea.
Does the mediator have the money? This subject has already been mentioned. Tellingly, it is Ankara rather than Washington that is mediator at the Syrian-Israeli peace talks. Probably, this is done for effect. But peace in the Middle East costs a lot of money. Does Turkey have it?
There is only one example of durable Arab-Israeli peace - the Camp David accords between Egypt and Israel, which were concluded 30 years ago under the U.S. mediation. The United States pays $5.7 billion a year in financial aid ($3.5 billion to Israel, and $2.2 billion to Egypt) to sustain this deal. Both Hafez Assad (Bashar's father) and Yasser Arafat wanted to buy a similar peace from the Americans, but they failed. The world has changed and the United States is playing with the Arabs by different rules.
To sum up, I believe that Syrian-Israeli peace may be established, but only in the distant future. Damascus is not yet ready to break with Tehran, and as long as they are partners they will never reach out to Israel.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
