MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Pyotr Goncharov) - The recent talks in Pakistan between Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee and his Pakistani counterpart Shah Mahmood Qureshi were more of a time-check for New Delhi and Islamabad than a full-scale attempt to normalize relations.
The topics announced by New Delhi for the talks were in the context of normalization, adjusted for the half a year break in dialogue caused by political instability, and indeed a complete change of government, in Pakistan.
The resumption of dialogue between the two neighbors several years ago suggested a mutual sounding out of positions on the most sensitive issues, such as measures to achieve peace, security, and trust; the disputed territories of Jammu and Kashmir; the fight against terrorism and drug trafficking; the free movement of people across borders, and development of economic and trade cooperation.
As the Indian financial paper the Economic Times admitted on the eve of the minister's visit to Pakistan, he also had to find out who determines Pakistani policy today. This is a far from academic question for India, considering that individual leaders have always exerted a major influence on bilateral relations.
It is clear that territorial disputes are the worst problem, and that they will not be resolved without compromise. Experience shows that those concessions do not necessarily have to be territorial, however. There are other options - it is possible to conduct referendums on a disputed territory, or give it a special status. In any event, the sides should look for new approaches to this problem, which at the moment are sadly lacking, except for rare initiatives from Islamabad.
India and Pakistan are trying to meet each other halfway. Terrorism, drug smuggling and porous borders are equally dangerous for social stability and security on both sides, and cooperation in resolving these problems is only natural. But they could do more, for instance by setting up joint commissions to deal with border control and exchange intelligence on terrorists and drugs.
Today, participation in three- and four-sided gas pipeline projects is a priority in bilateral relations. This applies to the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) project, and to the trans-Afghan Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-Indian pipeline.
The IPI project will cost an estimated $7.5 billion dollars and is scheduled to go into operation in 2013. The agreement to build it was reached only relatively recently - during Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's whirlwind tour of Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and India in the end of April. The pipeline's rated capacity is 150 million cubic meters of gas per day; of these India will receive 90 million cubic meters, and Pakistan 60 million.
About the same time, Turkmenistan, Pakistan, Afghanistan and India signed a framework agreement to build the trans-Afghan gas pipeline. Construction on this 7.6 billion dollar project will get underway in 2010, and the first gas will be supplied in 2015.
Both Pakistan and India face serious energy shortages. That should encourage them to cooperate on both projects - and they will need to. IPI will be laid in Baluchistan, where permanent tensions and separatist sentiments could wreck the project. The project also faces intense opposition from the United States, which would like to see Iran in the grip of economic sanctions.
But American pressure to abandon the project could be neutralized by Russia's gas monopoly, Gazprom, which is equally determined to divert Iranian gas from the western market. It is no accident that Pakistani experts are increasingly talking about Russian-Pakistani regional cooperation in the oil-and-gas industry. They believe that Gazprom's participation will be good for the project.
On paper, the route of the trans-Afghan pipeline on Afghan territory is ideal, starting from the Turgundi terminal on the Turkmen-Afghan border, and following the Herat-Kandahar highway to Spin-Boldak, a terminal point at the Afghan-Pakistani border. But it is ideal only in peacetime. It is possible that by 2015 the United States, NATO, Afghanistan, and Pakistan could guarantee security of the pipeline. But at the moment they are in no position to do so.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
