The IAEA has accused Tehran of failing to provide the Agency with "substantial explanations" regarding its nuclear program, of denying access to documents and persons who could confirm that its "activities have exclusively peaceful intentions." In principle, the situation is not new, but details that are vital in the stand-off between Iran and the IAEA are. How serious are the latest accusations and, most importantly, how much of a surprise are they?
The IAEA director general Mohamed ElBaradei in his previous reports noted some progress in clearing up the remaining questions about Iran's former nuclear activities while stressing that some questions still remained. Still to be cleared up are the military aspects of the nuclear program supposedly pursued by Iranian nuclear physicists. The latest report by the IAEA director general (February 22, 2008) focuses on this, the only issue in the Iranian "file" that remains to be closed.
Tehran pretends that as long as it manages to close far more important issues, such as "plutonium traces," the other aspect is immaterial. The U.S. and other Western intelligence services have made information about the Iranian weapons-grade uranium program and its tests of explosives as well as development of warheads that enter the thick layers of the atmosphere available to the IAEA.
The latter suspicion is particularly unpleasant for Iran. The development of a rocket that can pierce through the thick layers of the atmosphere can be claimed to be part of a national space effort. But how does one account for the development of the warhead? Obviously, the warheads for such rockets can only be nuclear. Tehran has naturally rejected all Western accusations that it is seeking to create its own nuclear weapon, dismissing the information handed over to the IAEA as "forged" or "fabricated."
However, from tentative information, the IAEA report this time appears to be much tougher. According to the Agency, Iran may possess additional information, notably on tests of explosives and rocket activities, which may shed more light on the substance of such research, which Iran must disclose to the Agency, the report states.
At first glance, the latest IAEA charges are serious enough. But on the other hand, the words "in the opinion of the Agency, Iran may possess additional information" enable Iran to claim that it does not have such information because it simply does not exist. Tehran has already proved that it is adept at playing with the IAEA and the UN Security Council, who demand that it stop all uranium enrichment activities and return to the negotiating table. Tehran has so far managed to ignore these demands mainly because the IAEA has failed to provide hard evidence.
Iran is a two-faced Janus. On the one hand, "there is no evidence of a military component in its nuclear program" and on the other, there is no "guarantee" that such a "component" will not appear in the future, possibly the near future. This was the gist of the IAEA's conclusions in its recent reports on the Iranian nuclear program.
Such verdicts have likely given Iran grounds to claim that the recent rounds of talks with the IAEA have been extremely fruitful, that all the suspicions and concerns are about to be removed, certainly before August 21 (the IAEA deadline for presenting the missing information) and that the world has no reason to worry about uranium enrichment.
Iran's representative to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, commenting on the leak of the Agency's report, described the Western claims about "suspected research" by Iranian nuclear scientists as "groundless."
Soltanieh stressed that the IAEA inspectors "have registered all the nuclear materials in Iran" and that the IAEA has been able to continue its inspections unobstructed and fully monitor all the nuclear activities, including the uranium enrichment at the Natanz plant.
Will the arguments presented by Soltanieh be enough to make the 35 members of the IAEA board of governors again deliver a "hung" verdict on the Iranian nuclear program in Vienna on June 2? Or will the verdict be clear: either the long-suffering Iranian nuclear program does or does not have a nuclear component? It won't be long now before we know the answers.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
