ESTONIA
The media are extensively covering the domestic situation in Russia. "Russia is similar...to pre-war Germany: control over the media is growing; there are just a few marginal publications with little influence; parliament is controlled by one party; the domestic opposition is eradicated; opposition leaders are removed or tamed with 'cooperation projects.' The same has happened in Russia. Putin's FSB buddies have seized key positions, putting up a 'facade' at the same time... The liberal opposition has even been invited into the government. At the same time people with a different ethnic appearance... are beaten up in the streets, and demonstrators are put behind bars... Is modern Russia what it calls itself, or is it the Soviet Union dreaming of restoration?" (Postimees, May 29)
Some publications were very ironic about the breakdown of the single toilet in the Russian module of the International Space Station (ISS). "Before, Moscow was proud of launching the first artificial satellite; now the former space power has been reduced to a broken toilet and stone-age navigation systems. What did a regular Soviet citizen and a cosmonaut have in common? All Soviet and Russian cosmonauts, starting with Yury Gagarin, were supposed to be able to fix toilets. Soviet toilets began to leak right after installation, and because of permanent repairs and inability to persuade...a drunken plumber, people...have no other choice than do it themselves... The ISS crew...had to do the same when the Russian-designed toilet...went out of order there and then." (Postimees, May 31)
LATVIA
The media are concerned over Moscow's growing imperial and militaristic ambitions. "Gorbachev... warned the West that continued U.S. deployment of missile defense elements in Europe (in Poland and the Czech Republic, and probably, also in Lithuania) would lead to a new stage in the Cold War. Indicatively, he said this on the eve of...the Victory Day festivities, during which a large-scale military parade...took place in Moscow's Red Square. Russia demonstrated...ballistic missiles, strategic bombers and other...hardware, which Moscow propaganda calls 'unmatched in the whole world.' Gorbachev's words and the parade... are meant to warn that the arms race between the West and the East may be resumed. This...reminds one of the Soviet times when the Kremlin was trying to intimidate the whole world." (Latvijas Avize, May 29)
LITHUANIA
Experts believe that Vilnius should spare no effort to prevent Moscow from expanding its spheres of influence. "If Russia's imperial ambitions...are cut short at a distance from Lithuania, the threat to our country will be reduced in proportion. The reverse is also true: by leaving more and more countries in the zone of Russia's influence we are definitely making its mouth water." (Lietuvos Rytas, May 31)
Most observers are stating with regret that there will be no adequate alternative to Russian fuel in the near future. "What has...the energy summit in Kiev brought? How does it differ from the fall summit in Vilnius? Regrettably, nothing has changed, and we will have to suffer the consequences, that is, complete dependence on Russia, the only energy supplier... It is easy to build a pipe, but filling it with fuel is a problem. The oil-rich Caspian nations do not rush to take part in the adventures of the new EU members." (Litovsky Kurier, May 29)
BELARUS
Opposition publications are writing about Vladimir Putin's appointment as chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Union State of Russia and Belarus. "Washington emphasized that Putin's appointment could testify to the rapprochement between the two states or be a mere formality, but in any event it affects U.S. interests." (Khartiya '97, May 28). "Putin's appointment as chairman of the cabinet of ministers of the Union State may cost Belarus its independence... Putin will step up the process of unification in order to elevate it to a higher level, Yevgenia Voiko [foreign policy expert from the Russian Center for Current Politics] explained... She believes that unofficially Belarus is viewed as a site for Russia's asymmetrical answer to the deployment of missile defense elements of a third positioning area in Poland and the Czech Republic... If Belarus allows Russia to deploy missiles on its territory, Russia will make some concessions on unification." (Khartiya '97, May 28)
Commentators are concerned over a potential increase in fuel prices in Russia, which will echo in Belarus. "The Russians are slowly raising fuel prices in their market. And this fact is all-important, because a number of Russian companies which trade in Belarus, such as LUKoil, are bringing fuel from Russia... Since prices in Russia are going up, and there is no anti-monopoly investigation to reveal monopoly collusion, the same... will take place in Belarus." (Belorussky Partizan, May 29)
UKRAINE
Newspapers are extensively writing about the issue of Russia's Black Sea Fleet. "Russian officials are playing games with the deployment of Russia's Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. As soon as Ukraine started insisting that talks on its withdrawal start in June... the Russian Foreign Ministry expressed its readiness to pay more for renting the territory... The Russians are not likely to discuss this subject in real earnest. If the treaty is revised because of rent, Ukraine will talk about billions of Euros, rather than millions of dollars, proceeding from commercial rather than political considerations... They [the Russians] have raised the issue... only to feign a constructive approach... As Vladimir Dorokhin, [the foreign ministry's special envoy] said, Russia pays Ukraine almost $100 million a year in rent. But in reality... our country does not receive a cent. Under the 1997 agreements, this money is spent to repay Ukraine's debt to Russia for gas and oil products. Debt payments have been extended for 20 years... Rent payments for the fleet are fiction. Russia only pays for electricity." (Gazeta Po-kievsky, May 30)
"For the Russian leaders, the Black Sea Fleet has long become a factor of political and military presence... The Kremlin is not going to haul down its flag in Sevastopol. Moscow needs the fleet in the Crimea as a symbol of Russia's presence on Ukrainian territory, even if there is a single rusty motor boat left... The fleet with its ramified intelligence structure and sophisticated propaganda is a powerful lever of influence on the political life in our country... Ukraine... should try to discuss the fleet's temporary stay and subsequent withdrawal from the Crimea at international level. Otherwise, Kiev will find it difficult to resist... Moscow's pressure single-handed." (Zerkalo Nedeli, June 2)
ARMENIA
Experts believe that Russia's role in the efforts to settle the Karabakh conflict is becoming less and less significant although officially Moscow is doing all it can to demonstrate its readiness to promote settlement. "Russia is not trying to extend the format of the talks on the conflict by involving the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic... and prefers to refrain from elaborating a policy on Karabakh." (Golos Armenii, June 3)
"Each CIS country... has its own specific features and... its own relations with Moscow. Nevertheless, it is obvious that Russia's policy towards its neighbors is weak." (Novoye Vremya, May 30)
"No geopolitical player...is interested in resuming regional wars. However, the behaviour of the players... in the region in the last few months, especially after the NATO summit in Bucharest, has changed, which is having an adverse effect on South Caucasian countries." (Hayots Ashkar, May 28)
GEORGIA
Experts believe that the inquiry into the shooting of a pilotless spy plane by the UN monitoring mission in Georgia shows once again that Moscow cannot be a mediator in settling conflicts. "The UN report is in our favor, and proves that the aggressor, which acts as a peacekeeper in Georgia, should be expelled from the country... Georgia has received one more document confirming Russia's aggressive actions... Moscow has been shown once again that its aggressive...actions mean confrontation not only with Georgia but with the rest of the international community." (Georgia Online, May 28)
At the same time, commentators admit that attempts to exert pressure on Russia can hardly be called successful. "If our goal was...to put Russia to shame before the whole world, we have... achieved it. But if we wanted to settle differences with our neighbor, we have no cause to rejoice. Those who know Russia's diplomatic style, are well aware that it is not a European country... A normal state would apologize and reimburse the damages, but there is no such precedent in Russian history; Russia will simply become even more bitter." (Alia, May 29)
The media predict that Moscow's actions in the post-Soviet space will be "more civilized." "In order to increase...its influence in the CIS, Russia has elaborated a new strategy. Nobody here has paid attention to the fact that an agency on CIS affairs was set up in the foreign ministry on Putin's initiative a few days ago... Lavrov's ministry has four similar departments. What's the point of setting up the fifth? The Kremlin... has realized that military pressure, provocations and destruction of aircraft do not increase its influence, and is switching over to a more civilized form - it will stifle us with money. Russia will fight till the last drop of blood to prevent us from joining NATO." (Alia, May 29)
Some experts think that the very format of the meeting between the Russian and Georgian presidents at the 12th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum is not very conducive to the adoption of decisions which could improve bilateral relations. "If Medvedev was trying to... do something good for Georgia, he would have found a better rostrum." (Rezonansi, May 28)
"There will be ... no momentary decisions, because Georgia is not fully independent in decision-making. It will have to consider the interests of its strategic partners." (Rezonansi, May 28)
"Medvedev will not be able to destroy the structure built by Putin for Georgia." (Akhali Taoba, May 29) "Medvedev will not change Putin's course." (Kviris Palitra, June 2)
AZERBAIJAN
The press is very negative about Russia's policy in the Caucasus and supports the Georgian position. Analysts see the introduction of Russian railway troops to Abkhazia as another confirmation of their suspicions. "Russia wants Georgia to be a neutral country without an army. It wants it to have only national guards equipped with ceremonial bayonets... Trusting Russia under the circumstances is like trusting a wolf to look after sheep... If international law does not exist, and the world is ruled by the right of strength, Russia can... afford to bomb Tbilisi." (Day.az, May 28)
"Russia's mission in the Caucasus directly mirrors its politics in the region... Russian 'peacekeepers' in Abkhazia and South Ossetia are making war and encouraging separatists in every possible way. Russia's policy in Georgia is a manifestation of...aggression and does not conform to the goals of the mission entrusted to the Russian military." (Day.az, May 29)
"Russia...is introducing the most dangerous, military, component of annexation; it has already established others - trade, social, and legal ones. In doing so, it is using Goebbels-style propaganda. " (Echo, June 3)
Some political analysts blame Moscow's aggressive attitude on Georgia's markedly pro-Western orientation. "Georgia's relations with Russia are a result of [Tbilisi's] pro-Western policy... There is clearly a difference between Russia's attitude to Georgia and Azerbaijan... Russia has many interests in Azerbaijan... It does not irritate Russia, and is conducting a moderate policy, while upholding its own interests." (Khalq Djebhesi, May 29)
KAZAKHSTAN
The opposition press has lashed out at former Big Brother. "Why has no empire ever managed to recover in the past? Apparently because the people of the former imperial provinces developed an allergy to imperial attitudes. And no matter how hard a fractured empire tried to gather its children with a carrot-and-stick policy, nothing worked... However, 'step children' are now ready to go even further and demand that the former parent state apologize and pay compensation for the damage done." (Megapolis, June 2)
KYRGYZSTAN
The media are jealous about Dmitry Medvedev's first foreign visit as president. Kyrgyz analysts criticize their Kazakh colleagues for rushing to announce that Moscow is ready to "bless" Astana for leadership in Central Asia. "Medvedev's visit to Kazakhstan took place in a 'warm and friendly atmosphere.' Nobody doubts this. But there are...few concrete results. Astana did not get the main thing it had hoped for. The sides did not come to terms even on the Caspian issue, not to mention Central Asia. But it is inconvenient to admit that Moscow did not give Astana its blessing for leadership in the region. It is easier to put on airs and indulge in wishful thinking... [Medvedev's] choice of Astana...was prompted by Nazarbayev's unmatched persistence... It was simply impossible not to react to his countless telephone calls, his appeals to hurry up, and his diplomats besieging the Kremlin... The Russian president and prime minister were simply compelled... to assign the number one visit to Astana... They are well aware of Kazakhstan's aspirations, and its claim to leadership in the region. But for the time being Russia has no reason to give it such an advantage." (Bely Parus, May 26)
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