MOSCOW, June 16 (RIA Novosti)
Russia's arms markets to be divided between Medvedev and Putin / Might-have-been Russian president threatens Ukraine with visa regime / Might-have-been Russian president threatens Ukraine with visa regime / Google co-founder books space flight / Foreigners certain to lose operational control over TNK-BP / Khodorkovsky's appeal for pardon will save his former colleagues
Kommersant
Russia's arms markets to be divided between Medvedev and Putin
President Dmitry Medvedev will chair the commission for military and technical cooperation, and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will be his deputy. The two Russian leaders may also divide arms markets, which analysts think will allow the country to sell arms even to warring sides.
Before this, the post of the commission's deputy head was largely a formality, with President Putin chairing all meetings of the commission, while his prime ministers, Mikhail Kasyanov, Mikhail Fradkov and Viktor Zubkov, only attending them.
The president and the prime minister are likely to divide powers in the sphere of military-technical cooperation, said a source in the government. "The dividing line may be also geographical," the source said.
The choice will take into account Putin's ties, so he will oversee arms supply talks with Venezuela, Libya and Algeria, countries with which large contracts were signed during his presidency.
Medvedev is likely to monitor Russia's two largest clients, China and India, as well as latent customers. Arms supplies were discussed during Medvedev's recent visit to China, when the contract on the delivery of 34 Il-76MD military transport planes and four Il-78MK tanker planes was revived.
It is now rumored that China is prepared to discuss changing the contract's terms.
Analysts say the geographical division of arms export responsibilities between Medvedev and Putin will allow Russia to sell weapons even to warring sides.
Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST) and a member of the Presidium of the Defense Ministry's Public Council, said: "There were cases in the past when Russia sold weapons to warring sides, for example during the latest armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. It acted through two different agents then. It now has only one authorized arms exporter, Rosoboronexport, but the division of the markets between the president and the prime minister may solve the problem."
Moskovsky Komsomolets
Might-have-been Russian president threatens Ukraine with visa regime
Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov has succeeded in giving a major fright to both the Russian and Ukrainian publics. Speaking on the anniversary of Sevastopol, a major port where Russia's Black Sea Fleet is deployed, the former presidential candidate said that if Ukraine joins NATO, the alliance will force the country to introduce a visa regime with Russia.
Admittedly, a visa barrier between the two friendly Slavic nations is quite likely to emerge, but this has to do with the European Union rather than NATO.
While Ukrainians still need persuasion to join NATO, the majority of the population sees EU accession as a positive change. If Ukraine's "European dream" does come true, there is a strong possibility that visas will be introduced, judging by the new EU members, such as Bulgaria, Poland and Cyprus. Although aggrieved about the prospect of introducing visas for Russians, they had no choice but to observe the EU rules.
On the other hand, Ukraine could follow a different scenario. As far as NATO is concerned, the West has already made a general decision to admit Ukraine as soon as possible. But there is no such decision about making the former Soviet republic an EU member.
Kiev is obviously not ready for full EU membership, with its backward economy and volatile political system. Europe is still trying to assimilate its most recent members, Romania and Bulgaria. Ukraine's quick accession could deal a big shock to Europe.
In addition, the EU is currently in a systematic crisis, which is not so bad as unpleasant. No one really knows what to do now that Ireland has killed the new version of the key EU document at a referendum.
Therefore, Kiev and Moscow are not facing any foreign requirements to introduce visas any time soon. But the Kremlin still needs to see ahead and try to abolish the visa regime between Russia and the EU in general. Sources in Russia's foreign politics admit that this goal is "unlikely to be attained today or even tomorrow." But who says we must only take care about today and tomorrow?
Ivanov's statement was taken by some as a covert threat. But he did not say that Moscow would introduce a visa regime unless Ukraine abandoned its NATO accession plans. He was wiser than that, and chose his words very carefully.
Ukraine is different from Georgia. Russia introducing a visa regime with Ukraine would be like someone shooting their own hand. We prefer to believe that the Kremlin will never do such a thing.
Moskovsky Komsomolets
Might-have-been Russian president threatens Ukraine with visa regime
Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov has succeeded in giving a major fright to both the Russian and Ukrainian publics. Speaking on the anniversary of Sevastopol, a major port where Russia's Black Sea Fleet is deployed, the former presidential candidate said that if Ukraine joins NATO, the alliance will force the country to introduce a visa regime with Russia.
Admittedly, a visa barrier between the two friendly Slavic nations is quite likely to emerge, but this has to do with the European Union rather than NATO.
While Ukrainians still need persuasion to join NATO, the majority of the population sees EU accession as a positive change. If Ukraine's "European dream" does come true, there is a strong possibility that visas will be introduced, judging by the new EU members, such as Bulgaria, Poland and Cyprus. Although aggrieved about the prospect of introducing visas for Russians, they had no choice but to observe the EU rules.
On the other hand, Ukraine could follow a different scenario. As far as NATO is concerned, the West has already made a general decision to admit Ukraine as soon as possible. But there is no such decision about making the former Soviet republic an EU member.
Kiev is obviously not ready for full EU membership, with its backward economy and volatile political system. Europe is still trying to assimilate its most recent members, Romania and Bulgaria. Ukraine's quick accession could deal a big shock to Europe.
In addition, the EU is currently in a systematic crisis, which is not so bad as unpleasant. No one really knows what to do now that Ireland has killed the new version of the key EU document at a referendum.
Therefore, Kiev and Moscow are not facing any foreign requirements to introduce visas any time soon. But the Kremlin still needs to see ahead and try to abolish the visa regime between Russia and the EU in general. Sources in Russia's foreign politics admit that this goal is "unlikely to be attained today or even tomorrow." But who says we must only take care about today and tomorrow?
Ivanov's statement was taken by some as a covert threat. But he did not say that Moscow would introduce a visa regime unless Ukraine abandoned its NATO accession plans. He was wiser than that, and chose his words very carefully.
Ukraine is different from Georgia. Russia introducing a visa regime with Ukraine would be like someone shooting their own hand. We prefer to believe that the Kremlin will never do such a thing.
Vedomosti
Google co-founder books space flight
Space tourists are getting their own ride. Space Adventures, a Virginia company that arranges for wealthy explorers to ride on Russian Soyuz rockets to the International Space Station (ISS), plans to buy a Soyuz flight all its own in 2011, with the option of buying more.
A new investor is likely to occupy one of the two available seats on Space Adventures's 2011 flight. Sergey Brin, a co-founder of Google and its president of technology, made a $5 million investment in the company that will serve as a down-payment on a future flight.
On June 11, Space Adventures announced its Orbital Mission Explorers Circle program allowing individuals to reserve seats on future orbital space flights. They have the option to fly to orbit as their schedule allows with preferential access to mission seats or they can opt to sell their seat to another private astronaut.
Although the company did not disclose how much a private flight would cost, Brin's predecessors have paid $20-35 million for their trips. In October 2007, Richard Garriott, who created Ultima, a series of fantasy computer role-playing games from Origin Systems, Inc., paid $35 million for his flight to the ISS.
The Rocket and Space Corporation Energia, which produces Soyuz spacecraft, has offered paid flights to the ISS and around the Moon. This would help fund programs to develop the Moon's natural resources.
However, the Russian Space Agency (Roscosmos), which is not a fan of space tourism, fired its proponent, Energia CEO Nikolai Sevastyanov, a year ago.
Roscosmos director Anatoly Perminov said he knew nothing about Brin's plans, and that a conference of national space agency chiefs, slated for July, would decide on the future of space tourism and would probably expand ISS crews from three to six.
Perminov said there would be no seats for space tourists left, and that commercial flights would be suspended.
Igor Afanasyev, editor-in-chief of the magazine Novosti Kosmonavtiki (Space Travel News), said Russia did not profit from space tourism, and that ticket prices were a far cry from overall ISS expenses.
He said the Space Adventures project would cost only $100 million, that only two tourists and one professional astronaut would be able to fly to the ISS, if station crews remained the same, and that one ticket should be worth at least $50 million.
In 2005, Roscosmos expected total expenses to reach $1 billion by 2008.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Foreigners certain to lose operational control over TNK-BP
The conflict between the Russian and British shareholders of TNK-BP has reached a new level.
Yesterday, it was reported that British oil major BP is ready to buy out shares of its Russian partners if it is guaranteed that it will be able to sell them later at the same price. A response is expected today, but analysts believe that judging by the recent events, Gazprom will become a shareholder of the joint venture by the end of the year. The only question is on which terms, and who will sell it a 50% stake.
Timur Khairullin, senior analyst on oil and gas from Antanta-Kapital, believes that "now each side wants either to remain, which is the best option strategically, or to sell its shares for as much as possible. BP has made a very interesting proposal. We buy a package of shares from AlfaAccessRenova (AAR) and then sell it at a price which will not be lower than what we will pay. In effect, this is an option for a future purchase."
The analyst noted that currently neither Gazprom nor Rosneft have enough money for the proposed purchase because of debts. But in practical terms, this is a very attractive option because it has been tried and tested by both companies.
This is how Rosneft bought Udmurtneft together with the Chinese, while Gazprom used this pattern while buying Yukos assets together with the Italian company Eni.
Khairullin said: "The main question is who will be able to pay about $25 billion for half of TNK-BP. Neither BP nor the Russian shareholders will settle for less than $20 billion. But if a sum of $30 billion is offered, one can be 90% sure that the Russian partners will be happy to sell their shares."
Sobinbank analyst Mikhail Zanozin believes that this is the least likely scenario.
"A price tag of $25 billion is a consequence of the current situation. If there were no conflict, the package would be more expensive. There would be no point in AAR starting a war which would eventually reduce the price of its package. For this reason, it is not likely to accept the BP proposal. Moreover, BP demands guarantees of the authorities, and this turn may lead to new accusations against the Russian government, which has already decided to stay away from this conflict."
Zanozin believes that the British will lose operational control over the joint venture in any event, and that Gazprom, which is most likely to gain at least half of TNK-BP, will act through AAR rather than BP. The eventual terms will become clear in the near future, the analyst said.
Vedomosti
Khodorkovsky's appeal for pardon will save his former colleagues
Mikhail Khodorkovsky, ex-head of the Yukos oil company, the former leader of the Russian oil sector declared bankrupt in August 2006, is facing a crucial choice, his former subordinate writes in the popular daily Vedomosti.
Dmitry Gololobov, former chief lawyer with Yukos and now head of the British law firm Gololobov & Co, writes that top-level deliberations over a possible pardon for Khodorkovsky have faced the prisoner with an excruciatingly difficult choice between justice (and his property) and mercy.
Only Khodorkovsky himself can file a pardon appeal. President Dmitry Medvedev has hinted openly that he would not overstep the legal boundaries. Khodorkovsky's lawyers wonder how the appeal could be worded and filed so as to ensure a pardon for their client without forcing him to file the appeal, which is nonsense, Gololobov writes.
Although the law does not say openly that Khodorkovsky must admit guilt and show repentance, for many people his appeal for pardon would amount to him admitting guilt.
Accepting the verdict would mean that the Yukos assets, currently evaluated at $60 billion at the least, will remain the property of their current holders, Gololobov writes.
Even sticklers for law know that nobody will bring to Khodorkovsky a package of documents compiled in accordance with British legislation and protecting the state and Rosneft, the current holder of Yukos assets, from subsequent claims in international courts, because such documents signed in prison cost less than the paper they are printed on.
Vladimir Gusinsky, former head of the Media-Most Group, which set up Russia's once leading independent TV channel NTV, had signed similar documents, but later the European Court passed a verdict in his favor.
If Khodorkovsky is pardoned, there will be no multibillion suits to Russia from the former owner of Yukos, Group Menatep, even if its shareholders demand them. The European Court's ruling, even if passed, will be good only for law students, Gololobov writes.
The Yukos affair will become history because the cases of some rank-and-file Yukos employees will be dismissed, while those of them who have been put behind bars will be released, under one pretext or another.
The lawyer writes that this is the main choice facing Khodorkovsky, a choice between justice regarding property and himself and mercy for his former colleagues. Former Yukos employees who have been crushed by the state did not fight for God and Fatherland, something for which one can forfeit one's freedom, family and even life.
I hope Khodorkovsky remembers that right is above the law, justice is above right, and mercy is above justice, Gololobov concludes.
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