Israeli society is shocked whereas Lebanon is celebrating victory.
Quoting intelligence sources, Israeli officials announced several weeks before the exchange of prisoners that the two soldiers were sooner dead than alive. Nevertheless, their parents believed till the very last that this was not true, all the more so since full identification requires a DNA test. Many of their compatriots also hoped for the best. But they have come to believe intelligence sources, and military leaders told them to prepare for a funeral.
Naturally this exchange has caused heated debates in Israel. The Israeli media have been repeating the bitter words: "We are the only nation to exchange live terrorists for dead bodies." This was one of the reasons why Mossad's head Meir Dagan and ISA's (Israeli Security Agency Shin Bet) Yuval Diskin objected to the swap. But Israeli leaders approved the UN- and German-mediated deal.
In exchange for the two dead soldiers, Israel will turn over to Lebanon four Hezbollah fighters and Samir Kuntar, who received several life imprisonment sentences for the murder of an Israeli family (including a four year-old girl), and spent 29 years in an Israeli prison. Israel is also to return to Lebanon about 200 corpses of fighters killed during an attempt to cross the border, and several Palestinians.
High-ranking politicians have been chanting the same mantra during the past few days - every soldier should know that his country's leaders will not give up on him; and every mother should know that her children will come home under any circumstances.
This approach is not new for Israel. The Israeli leaders have always adhered to it. This is not Israel's first exchange of prisoners. The media reported that since 1991 the government has made eight deals with Hezbollah alone. The previous deal took place in 2004 when Israel returned 400 prisoners to Lebanon in exchange for an Israeli businessman and bodies of three soldiers.
Each swap evokes heated debates in Israel. Few people doubt that Israeli citizens should come home, dead or alive. But don't such deals provoke Israel's enemies into making new raids? This remains a concern. Nothing is new, but the last swap was one of the most painful for Israel, and the prevailing attitudes are similar to those which Israel had after the official end of the war in August of 2006.
Israelites did not understand whether the last war was won or lost, nor is it any clearer today. This swap feels like defeat, especially since Israel has never returned prisoners like Kuntar before.
Israel made some tactical achievements shortly after the war. It established tranquility on its border with Lebanon, and UN peacekeepers were deployed in the zone, which had been previously controlled by Hezbollah. But Israel failed to achieve the main goal - disarm and demoralize this Shiite movement. It is sooner demoralized itself, whereas Hezbollah, judging by the recent events in Lebanon, is increasingly consolidating its political position. A swap of prisoners is always a win for Hezbollah in Lebanon, even more so when the prisoners are seen as heroes.
Hezbollah declared victory over Israel two years ago. Its ability to conduct active hostilities until the last day of the war against the Middle East's strongest army certainly points to a kind of victory. But at that time, it was overshadowed by huge civilian losses and large-scale destruction. Now Hezbollah is celebrating an absolute triumph. Two years ago Israeli policy makers could make an argument regarding the outcome of the war, but today they have nothing to say.
Moreover, they have to admit the failure of UN Security Council resolution 1701 on the terms of peace. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said that this resolution has been ineffective. He was referring primarily to Hezbollah's continued armament build up.
Israeli intelligence says that since the end of the war, Hezbollah has tripled its missile arsenal, and has 40,000 missiles capable of hitting Israel's densely populated center. Two years ago, its missiles had a more limited range. These reports don't discuss Israel's wartime achievements. The return of the two corpses has dealt a heavy blow to Israel. Moral defeat can be much stronger than physical destruction.
But that's not all. Having struck the deal with Hezbollah, Israel will have to pay a dear price for the liberation of one more soldier, Gilad Shalit. He was captured shortly before Goldwasser and Regev at the border of the Gaza Strip, and is now being held by Palestinian Hamas. If dead bodies can be exchanged for one of the most notorious criminals, what will Israel have to pay for a live Shalit?
There is a hard and fast rule in the Middle East - a display of weakness means further retreat. Israel made concessions to honor its commitments to the families of the dead and to observe the principles on which the state has always rested. Time will tell how much it will have to pay for this philosophy. But could Israel have acted differently?
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
