Kadima was formed by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon after he formally left the right-wing Likud party in November 2005 to establish a new party to gain the freedom to carry out his policy of unilateral disengagement, which provides for the removing of Israeli settlements from Palestinian territory and fixing Israel's borders with a prospective Palestinian state.
Olmert said he would not run for the Kadima leadership and would resign as soon as a new leader is elected.
He is embroiled in a corruption probe into suspicions that he illicitly received funds from an American Jewish businessman over a 15-year period.
The prime minister made his statement on the day when a routine round of talks was held between Israel and Syria in Turkey and between Israel and the Palestinians in the Untied States. The news was overshadowed by a larger concern: will the peace process progress or wane after Olmert's resignation?
Under Olmert, Israel resumed talks with the Palestinians and Syria, after a lengthy suspension. But then, any other Israeli leader would have done the same, because there is a time for war and a time for peace. Now is apparently a time for peace.
However, he did not push the peace process ahead, in part because he was not very popular in politically unstable Israel, or in the Palestinian territories. But any other prime minister would also have failed, because neither the Palestinians nor the Israelis were ready for painful compromises.
The situation at the talks with Syria is quite similar. Olmert renewed the talks but he clearly is not the man to convince Israelis to return the Golan Heights to Syria.
Now that he plans to resign, the talks may be suspended for a long time, which will be especially painful for the Palestinians. After all, there has been no shooting on the Syrian-Israeli border, whereas clashes big and small are reported between Palestinians and Israelis nearly every day.
At this point, quite a few important issues have been coordinated with the Palestinians and the sides are currently discussing an interim peace treaty.
No one can guarantee that the treaty will be signed, but neither can anyone be sure the peace process would continue if Olmert keeps his post.
In other words, the logic of the Middle East process does not depend on the top man in power in Israel, unless a really extraordinary politician takes the lead and forces his or her will on Israel. So far, there are no such politicians in sight in Israel. In addition to which, a similar scenario would have to develop in the Palestinian territories to ensure the success of the peace process.
This is why Olmert's announcement has not shocked the Middle East or clarified the situation, but neither has it complicated it.
Most Israelis are glad he is leaving. According to a poll conducted for the Israeli TV Channel 10, over 77% of Israelis are dissatisfied with their prime minister's policy, above all the clash with Lebanon. The recent exchange of Israeli servicemen kidnapped by Hezbollah, who turned out to be long dead, for terrorists has shocked Israel.
But few people stop to think if another politician could or would have changed the situation.
The majority of Israelis would welcome anyone now, but they have their preferences. The above poll showed that 36% of Israelis would like opposition leader Benyamin Netanyahu, who chairs the Likud party, to become the next prime minister. As many as 24.6% would vote for the widely respected Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who is likely to win the Kadima primaries, and 14.9% would support Defense Minister Ehud Barak, the leader of the Avoda (Labor) party.
The three candidates, although they lead different parties, are similar in most ways. Netanyahu is said to be a firm opponent of the peace process, but he signed peace treaties during his previous tenure as prime minister. On the other hand, Barak and Livni can prove stubborn, depending on the security situation and Israelis' sentiments at a given moment.
Israeli politicians are preparing for the first round of debating, the Kadima primaries on September 17. But it will not be enough for the future prime minister to win the Kadima primaries and take Olmert's chair. The winner must also be able to form a new government otherwise Olmert will reclaim his post, even if temporarily, until early parliamentary elections, which are inevitable regardless.
Likud leader Netanyahu, convinced that he will win the primaries, has said the elections must be held, and it is common knowledge that elections are not the best time for hammering out agreements even if the peace talks continue.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
