The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry flatly refused to comment on Saakashvili's announcement prior to Georgia filing the official documents with the CIS Executive Committee. Kyrgyzstan's political leaders said their country continues to support the Commonwealth future. Belarus said it was "a supporter of the CIS". The Foreign Ministry of Azerbaijan remarked that "Georgia's withdrawal from the CIS is Tbilisi's own business". The Russian Foreign Ministry implied that Saakashvili's move would be detrimental to the people of Georgia.
So, the former Soviet Union countries have failed to express solidarity with Saakashvili over his "Rose Republic's" withdrawal from the CIS. However, glib diplomatic formulas do not contain any trace of outrage over his actions. What can one make of this reaction? Will Tbilisi's withdrawal make a difference to the organization? And if so, in what way?
These questions have provoked arguments among analysts.
Alexei Vlasov, the director of the Information-Analytical Center for the Study of the Social and Political Processes in the Post-Soviet Space, suggested that Georgia's withdrawal from the CIS was good news for the CIS. "In the past two years the CIS has been an all-purpose negotiating forum where Vladimir Putin and Mikheil Saakashvili, the Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents could meet and talk," he elaborates. "But at the moment it is no more than a special interest club which, in spite of attempted reforms - by the Presidents of Kazakhstan and Russia - remains just that. Therefore nothing real and practical has been happening within the CIS," Vlasov said. The problem now, as in the past, is that each member of the Commonwealth adheres to its own interests. With the withdrawal of Georgia, the number of countries that have been playing a zero-sum game with Moscow has diminished. Consequently, there is a chance to reform the CIS and make it more practical and active.
Mr Vlasov added that Tbilisi's withdrawal may perhaps bring home to the Russian elite that Russia needs the CIS countries and its fate depends on it. That would have a positive impact on the fate of the Commonwealth. The analyst believes that Georgia's move leaves the CIS with fewer countries which consider the Commonwealth of Independent States to be "an adjunct to Russian globalism".
Leonid Vardomsky, the head of the CIS and Baltic Center, has a different opinion. He believes Georgia's withdrawal and the recent peace-keeping operations will slow down CIS reform.
"The fact of Georgia's withdrawal from the CIS is not all that important. Of late Tbilisi has hardly signed anything within the Commonwealth and has used it solely as a negotiating forum. But this provocative step attracts the attention of the CIS elites to Russia's use of force against Georgia. The CIS elites are beginning to project this situation onto themselves and feel mistrust toward Moscow. This is especially true of Azerbaijan which has the Nagorny Karabakh problem on its hands", Mr Vardomsky said. New projects within the CIS will most probably be put on hold until the Georgia-provoked mistrust wears off.
Both analysts agree that in the current situation no other CIS country is likely to follow Georgia's example. Leonid Vardomsky notes with reason that Georgia stands to lose very little from pulling out of the organization, considering the recent economic blockade by Russia. However, Russian imports into that country at present stand at the same level as before Saakashvili came to power. There is also a visa regimen between Russia and Georgia. Other countries, thanks to the CIS, enjoy visa-free travel for their citizens and have considerable economic advantages. They will not easily part with an organization that they find useful.
The reaction of the CIS countries since the beginning of the Russia-Georgia - South Ossetia conflict has been unclear; in fact there has been no reaction. This can be attributed to a thousand reasons, including fear of Russia's military actions or just plain bewilderment. Perhaps Tbilisi's sudden withdrawal from the Commonwealth caught the former Soviet Republics by surprise. They simply do not know how to react and are therefore keeping a reticent neutrality. Be that as it may, no one has expressed any solidarity with Georgia in connection with its move.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
