ESTONIA
The lessons of the Georgian-South Ossetian hostilities and forecasts for the future global arrangement of forces are front-page press themes.
"The West will be blind unless it learns to make forecasts. What happened in Georgia might be re-enacted in our country. Foreign ministers of the European Union looked inane after meeting in Brussels. Russia has again succeeded in fragmenting common EU foreign policy and security into elementary particles based on sheer national interest." (Postimaes, August 14)
"Russia has made itself insoluble problems. Cuba alone supported its aggression. Even Iran, Venezuela, Uzbekistan and Belarus were conspicuously silent. Economically, Russia will lose confidence and direct investments. Oil and gas might provide a base for the regime - but not forever." (SL Ohtuleht, August 15)
"When it attacked Georgia, Russia renewed the fearsome public image of its army and demonstrated that guarantees made by the United States, which is stuck in the Middle East, are worth nothing. "(Postimaes, August 16)
Commentators advise the West how to arrange its relations with Moscow. "First, Russia should be unequivocally recognized as an aggressor and a revisionist state, not unlike Germany in the 1930s. Baltic people know from their own bitter experience what might happen if another line is taken toward Russia - the more it has the more it wants. If Russia gets out of the largest European aggression of the last half-century unscathed, it will attack Ukraine, Moldova and, in the final analysis, the whole world. Second, efforts should be made to isolate Russia. It should be regarded as a pariah unless it learns to behave. The West - mainly Europeans - must do everything they can to put an end to their dependence on Russia." (Eesti Paevaleht, August 13)
LATVIA
Journalists wonder whether EU and NATO countries can put the interests of the democratic world order above oil and gas supplies.
"The events in Georgia highlighted a reality disagreeable to Latvia. Russia has not given up its neo-imperialist ambitions. Europe strongly depends on Russian oil and gas and so is powerless against Moscow's will." (Dienas Bizness, August 13)
"A split between Russia and the United States, between the United States and the European Union, and within the EU is growing ever more evident. Moscow has de facto approved Abkhaz and Ossetian independence at the highest level." (Telegraf, August 15)
Many authors expect Russia to start seizing the post-Soviet area using the pattern tested in Georgia.
"Russia has a strategic plan to restore its authority on the former Soviet territories and possibly outside them - who knows? Georgia came as a test of how far Russia dares to go before the West starts curbing it." (Latvijas avize, August 13)
"Latvia cannot afford to wait for the Kremlin to qualify objections to a pipeline across the Baltic seabed as 'fascist aggression' against Russian interests. We are EU members, and we should use every opportunity to make Russia pay as dearly as possible for its so-called victory. Last but not least, we must demand from NATO a plan for Latvian defense. Russia regards Latvia as its own window onto Europe, and will try to regain it as soon as it has a chance." (Diena, August 14)
"The aggressive Russian approach in its clash with Georgia shows that Putin does not intend to give up his doctrine, which envisages Moscow's influence on the post-Soviet area. This is an unequivocal warning to Ukraine and other former Soviet republics who want to be independent of Moscow in their policies." (Diena, August 15)
LITHUANIA
Political analysts expect Ukraine, Moldova and the former Soviet Baltic countries to be the next victims of Russia.
"Georgia has made a tremendous sacrifice, which is very valuable as the mask has been torn off the face of Russia. We pin our hopes on Georgia as not only its own fate is being sealed there. Our fate is at stake in Georgia, too. Not only we alone, but also many other countries across the world are wondering what will come if Georgia falls. Who will be next? The answer is simple-it will be Ukraine and then the former Soviet Baltic republics." (Delfi.lt, August 18)
The opinion of Povilas Gilis, former Lithuanian foreign minister, clashes with the overall view of the Lithuanian mass media. He thinks his country has become a tool of other countries' policies.
"Lithuania has invested too much in Saakashvili. Georgia is not so innocent as it is sometimes portrayed. Lithuania does not pursue a foreign policy of its own but behaves as strong countries' puppet. The situation is not unlike the Cold War, when the United States and the U.S.S.R. fought each other not directly but in the Third World-Africa, Latin America or Asia." (Delfi.lt, August 14)
Commentators are worried with the harm that might be done if Lithuanian leaders' stance on the Caucasian conflict displeases the Kremlin.
"Lithuanian aid to Georgia puts our industry in an awkward situation. Georgia is in conflict with Russia, and Lithuania might face imports of its foodstuffs limited and gas supplies stopped to punish it for support of Georgia. Russia will not make do with sanctions against food exports. The Kremlin might try its most formidable weapon on us- energy." (Respublika, August 19)
The coverage of Olympic news from Beijing is also colored by the world political situation. The Lithuanian basketball victory over Russia is described as a crucial political success.
"It is not a mere athletic victory. It mattered greatly to Lithuanians, historically and politically, to win. Whatever might be said about sports lying outside politics, as things really are, sports are politics." (Delfi.lt, August 14)
BELARUS
Many media outlets have no doubt that the Georgian attack on Tskhinvali was largely provoked by Moscow.
"Russia has been whipping up the conflict for years and never lifted a finger to stop it. Russia worked for permanent tensions in the region to make them a pressure lever and use it anytime. None other than Russia urged the South Ossetian rebels to build up pressure on Tbilisi and advance demands none of the Georgian leaders would put up with. True, the hostilities were started by the Georgian president's headstrong move-but Moscow had been long working for that. The conflict would have flared up inevitably even if Mikheil Saakashvili had not fallen into the trap." (Nashe Mnenie, August 15)
Some experts think that Russia will continue its aggressive authoritarian policy toward other CIS countries due to its own "imperialist complexes."
"Ukraine could become another hotbed of tensions. Russian leaders are even now wondering out loud whether they need to reckon with Ukraine's territorial integrity at all. They have also said that the Crimea, a part of Ukraine, should be incorporated into Russia again. Likewise, the Russian pressure on Moldova caused de facto division of this small former Soviet republic. To all appearances, Russia is firmly convinced that a certain supranational entity should rise under Kremlin control to grip a greater part of the former Soviet area." (Nashe Mnenie, August 16)
Opposition outlets picture Russia among the greatest threats to Belarusian sovereignty.
"As soon as it has somehow or other 'enforced peace' on Tbilisi, Moscow has turned to its CIS friends to analyze their response to the situation in the conflict zone. Whatever becomes of the amorphous Union State of Belarus and Russia, the problem of Belarusian independence is getting ever more acute." (Telegraf, August 13)
UKRAINE
Commentators say that the South Ossetian operation was necessary to make the political situation in the former Soviet area lucrative for Moscow.
"As it protects self-proclaimed regimes, Russia is harassing Georgia and Moldova as they seek to join NATO, to which countries with unsettled territorial problems are not admitted. Russia works to preserve regional instability. Gas and bayonet diplomacy is an all-purpose tool for pinpointing alleged aggressors and enforcing peace on them in any part of the world where Russian peacekeepers are stationed and Russian interests present." (Zerkalo Nedeli, August 16)
Certain experts go so far as to warn of impending Russian military aggression against Ukraine and Moldova.
"The Russian invasion of Georgia was the first step to re-establishing the Russian Empire. It foreshadows the conquest of Ukraine and Moldova in the nearest future-possibly, in 2009." (Den, August 16)
Media outlets expect the South Ossetian tragedy to speed up Ukrainian and Georgian integration into Western military and law enforcement structures.
"If Georgia were a NATO country, Russia would think twice before attacking an independent state and a member of an influential military political bloc. The Ossetian hostilities should make NATO see that Russia is a tangible regional threat, and so Ukraine and Georgia need help-that is, incorporation into the Euro-Atlantic collective security system." (Gazeta 24, August 14)
Poland has consented to deploy U.S. ABM interceptor missiles. Experts do not rule out Ukraine following quite soon. "The Ossetian-Georgian-Russian war has made Washington and Warsaw much more tractable. Powerful arsenals across the border will certainly make Ukraine change its defense concept. Some people will insist on Ukraine also deploying U.S. anti-missile systems-but this would be a dangerous step, inevitably bringing a negative Russian response." (Segodnya, August 15)
MOLDOVA
The opposition press is sure Russia will unleash hostilities in the other areas of so-called "frozen conflicts" under the pretext of protecting its citizens.
"Not only Georgia but also Moldova is in the sphere of Russian strategic interests. There are Russian peacekeeping forces in Transdnestr, too. They claim to be protecting us-but they might also attack. The South Ossetian situation makes this clear." (Timpul de dimineata, August 13)
"It was brought home to Moldova that Russian bombers might wipe it from the face of the earth if it tried to restore control of Transdnestr." (Jurnal de Chisinau, August 15)
"Transdnestr owes its tranquility not so much to Moldova's friendly attitude to Moscow as to the fact that it does not border on Russia." (Flux, August 15)
Chisinau media outlets blame Russian influence for radical trends mounting among the Russian-speaking population of Moldova.
"You don't need integrate into another country when you feel Russia's firm hand and see Russian tank columns in Georgia." (Timpul de dimineata, August 13)
"Infectious nationalism dominates Russia and is penetrating Moldova. The ethnic Russian minority is becoming a big problem for Moldova." (Jurnal de Chisinau, August 19)
ARMENIA
Certain media blame the hostilities entirely on Georgia, whose president Washington uses to confront Moscow.
"The pointless war brought Georgia the loss of South Ossetian villages and the Kodori Gorge in Abkhazia, controlled by Georgian troops until recently-all this because American placeman Saakashvili chose to play Napoleon Buonashvili. Tbilisi has always been provocative in the confrontation zone." (Golos Armenii, August 19)
The opposition press labels the Russian action in the Caucasus as "exceptionally cruel and cynical." "Unconvincing peace rhetoric was hiding a display of imperialist force. No humane goal could justify fighting in all of Georgia, especially air raids of settlements remote from Ossetia. All this went together with unprecedented brainwashing and extremely biased information." (Aravot, August 13)
GEORGIA
The mass media lay bare Russia's allegedly true goals.
"There is no sober-minded person in the whole world who would not doubt that the Kremlin is sincere in its intention to be the 'guarantor and pillar of peace'. This is especially evident as the whole of Georgia is bombed. The empire really has only one goal-to rule the world. The Kremlin is making a blunder as it compares itself to the United States from the geopolitical point. As it really is, Russia is, alas, not a leader, though it is hardly an outsider, either. It is most probably an analogue of Iran or Venezuela." (Georgia Online, August 13)
As commentators see it, Russia made an irreparable error by demonstrating its military might. As the result, it has lost Georgia and destroyed its own international image.
"Putin bungled when he showed Georgia the strength of the Russian kick. Russia was dangerous only before Georgians saw what an angry bear could do. We know now what a Russian tank looks like, and what the professionalism of Russian aggressors is worth. We know the reek of charred Russian planes as they are brought down. We have felt the full force of Russian might against us. True, Russia has defeated the Georgian army, but it has lost the diplomatic, information and moral war not only in the region but in all continents. Russia has lost Georgia forever." (Akhali Taoba, August 13)
AZERBAIJAN
A majority of experts think Moscow's action in the Georgian-South Ossetian conflict zone will further diminish its influence worldwide.
"Large-scale confrontation between Moscow and Tbilisi has brought epoch-making fruit. Of special significance was Saakashvili's decision for Georgia to quit the CIS. The Georgian president's appeal to Ukrainian authorities to follow suit took Russia aback. It is realizing that it might finally lose its position in the crucial parts of the former Soviet space." (Kaspii, August 15)
"Attempts to oust Russia from various parts of the world have been made for a long time, but it has given battle only now, with an attempt to oust it from the Caucasus, which is of essential importance to it. Once Russia loses its grip on the South Caucasus, it will almost automatically lose the North Caucasus. So, to all appearances, Russia will fight even despite international sanctions that might rob it of hundreds of billions of dollars." (Novoye Vremya, August 15)
Commentators were indignant with Russian television channels invading the Azerbaijani information environment.
"Since it invaded Georgia, the Kremlin is going to all ends to promote propaganda in our country. Russian television channels are illegally broadcasting in Azerbaijani territory. They intensively broadcast information about hostilities against Georgia and promote the idea of Russia's leadership in the region." (Musawat, August 15)
KAZAKHSTAN
The relations of Astana and Moscow are undergoing another test. According to some analysts, the military conflict with Georgia showed Russia that it doesn't have true allies in the world, and it will hardly keep close ties with some post-Soviet republics if it comes to a military confrontation with the countries supported by the West. "The presumption that Nursultan Nazarbayev will always remain a pro-Russian politician is just a widespread delusion. Even assuming that Kazakhstan is now absolutely loyal to Russia, no one can guarantee that Astana won't change its mind under Washington's pressure... Kazakhstan's attitude toward Russia will depend on Russia's standing. If Russia is strong, Kazakhstan will side with it; if Russia starts breaking apart, Kazakhstan will unlikely want to either fall apart together with it or get buried under its debris... No doubt, Nazarbayev will betray Russia. By and large, politicians use another word to describe such betrayal - they call it foresight... It's not a question of when he'll do it. The key question is whether he'll be the first or the last to do it." (Zona KZ, August 19)
The media believe that the collision in South Ossetia is just a rehearsal for an inevitable war between Russia and the West. Georgia is the first ex-Soviet republic to openly defy Moscow in its bid to get out of Russia's sphere of influence. The U.S. is likely to back any government that will help it accomplish the annihilation of Russia as a superpower and as a party in international relations in principle. "The countdown has started, marking the day when the West will declare a holy war on Russia, unless Russia is prudent enough to dissolve itself into the shrinking territory of the Moscow princedom. But even in this case, war against Russia will be imperative, since the U.S. and Europe won't tolerate a small ruling prince with an atomic bomb. In other words, the West's war against Russia is inevitable. Mikheil Saakashvili demonstrates his willingness to be at the forefront as soon as hostilities are unleashed." (Zona KZ, August 19)
KYRGYZSTAN
Analyzing the conflict in South Ossetia, some columnists draw inspiration from the inexhaustible sources of popular wisdom. "The Abkhaz and Ossetian parties seek Russia's support, and Georgia - U.S. support. Hopefully, the world will avert the conflict described in Proverbs "When two camels fight, the fly that finds itself between the two giants dies." (Alibi, August 6)
TURKMENISTAN
Opposition editions stress that Russia has serious economic interests in the region. Analysts opine that Moscow supports separatist sentiments in Georgia and Azerbaijan's breakaway republics to sabotage the operation of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. "The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline is a thorn in the side of Russia's hydrocarbon diplomacy. Oil flows bypassing Russia... In this situation Russia sees the only way out in breaking up Georgia and Azerbaijan and backing the separatist regimes on their territories. Georgia and Azerbaijan have the right to territorial integrity, and the Russian government should not interfere in their domestic affairs... Russia knows perfectly well what separatism and terrorism mean. Russia has a bitter experience of ethnic-related atrocities on its territory. Still today it supports separatism in the small self-proclaimed republics." (Paykhas, August 8)
In the view of journalists, Saakashvili's bold order to launch an assault on Tskhinvali was triggered by "a wise advisor" from the West, and the conflict proper was organized "to mar the Olympic fest" in Beijing. What guided the "wise advisor" of the Georgian leader when he prompted an attack on Tskhinvali? Saakashvili's alleged adviser is said to loath China. If you time hostilities to the beginning of the Olympics, all news blocks will start with war reports, he presumed reasonably. No one will follow the Olympics, as if there were no Games at all. This said, Georgia's territorial integrity and the people of South Ossetia fell victim to a plain "PR campaign aimed at neutralizing the Beijing Olympics..." One should give credit for the pragmatism and cynicism of the Georgian leader's tutor - it takes craft and guile to devise a scheme where the ambitions of one and the lives of others are used as the bargaining chip." (Turkmenskaya Iskra, August 10)
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