MOSCOW, September 1 (RIA Novosti) Neither Russia, nor the West wants confrontation / Russia to expand its military presence in Central Asia / Moscow attempting to bring Uzbekistan back to its sphere of influence / Russia assumes harsher stand on NATO expansion / Even a great country does not necessarily need to interfere in its neighbors' politics / Western pressure causes Russia to drift closer toward Iran, Venezuela
Kommersant, Novye Izvestia
Neither Russia, nor the West wants confrontation
Moscow has spelled out the main concession it is willing to make on the eve of the extraordinary summit of the European Union due to open in Brussels Monday. Russia is willing to accept a more important role for the OSCE and even the EU in the security zones around Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin emphasized in an interview with ADR that Russia was not planning a permanent presence in those zones, which means they should go under the control of European agencies once Russian peacekeepers leave.
A European diplomatic source told Kommersant that the signal was heeded in major European capitals and is likely to be used as a key argument by those who do not support the idea of a confrontation with Russia and imposing sanctions.
In fact, Western diplomats even hinted late last week that a decision on anti-Russian sanctions promoted with candor by East European countries and Georgia cannot be expected any time soon.
Russia has in fact conveyed a rather controversial message to Brussels. On the one hand, President Dmitry Medvedev said Russia could not accept a world order in which one nation makes all the important decision, even if it is an important nation like the United States. On the other hand, he said Moscow was not going to isolate itself and planned to develop friendly contacts with Europe and the US as much as possible.
It won't be surprising if Brussels comes up with as controversial a response today. The European nations have already drawn several important conclusions from the brief war in the Caucasus: many influential European politicians said over the weekend that Europe cannot afford to quarrel with Moscow because of its dependence on Russia's energy resources.
However, Europe doesn't want to live in constant apprehension. Britain's Gordon Brown said the EU must immediately get down to its own energy agenda. He vowed to take urgent measures to put an end to Europe's dependence on Russia's hydrocarbons, including prospecting for new oil and gas fields, developing nuclear power generation, using alternative fuels and investing in the Nabucco gas pipeline project to ship Central Asian gas to Europe bypassing Russia.
Germany's economics ministry said Berlin was considering a set of initiatives to lessen its energy dependence on Russia. One of them will be to create a gas reserve is case there is a conflict with Moscow.
Ruslan Grinberg, director of the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Economics, said Europe was wrong to scare itself with imaginary horrors. "Even in the most difficult periods, during the Cold War, the Soviet Union never walked out on its fuel contracts," he added. He said neither the West nor Russia would benefit from an economic confrontation, especially given Asia's rapidly growing economic clout.
RBC Daily
Russia to expand its military presence in Central Asia
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon agreed to allow the Russian Defense Ministry to use the Gissar airport in Tajikistan. The new air base would change the Central Asian balance of power and Dushanbe's foreign policy.
Experts linked the deal with the transfer of Russian weapons worth $1 billion to Tajikistan.
The Soviet-era Gissar air base and Russia's Kant base in neighboring Kyrgyzstan can receive helicopters, ground-attack jets and military-transport aircraft.
The Russian Air Force currently uses three Tajik airfields in Kulyab, Dushanbe and Kurgan-Tyube, Andrei Grozin, head of the Kazakhstan and Central Asia department at the Institute of CIS Studies, told the paper.
Only ten planes and ten helicopters deployed there support motorized infantry units at the 201st military base in Tajikistan. After receiving the Gissar base, Russia would be able to conduct more effective reconnaissance operations, re-deploying its regional forces more quickly.
Grozin said Gissar could also receive Russian strategic bombers if its runways were extended and additional fuel reservoirs installed.
Last winter, Tajikistan preferred multi-vector military-technical cooperation policies. A French unit stationed in Dushanbe provides logistics support to French Air Force elements in Afghanistan. Moreover, the Tajik Government has not yet decided whether to allow the Indian Air Force to use an airfield in Aini.
Grozin said the new Tajik policy was motivated by the transfer of old Russian weapons worth $1 billion to Dushanbe. Consequently, the Tajik Armed Forces would have one of the largest regional arsenals.
"Presidents Rakhmon and Medvedev repeatedly negotiated face to face at the latest Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, with the Tajik leader supporting Russian actions in the South Caucasus," Grozin told the paper.
It appears that Russia's changed relations with the West have put an end to its hesitant Central Asian policy.
Kommersant
Moscow attempting to bring Uzbekistan back to its sphere of influence
Moscow is worried by the convergence beginning to show between Uzbekistan and the western countries, a process which sped up after the Georgian aggression. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who is arriving in Tashkent today to kick off his visit, has a very hard task of bringing the country back into Russia's sphere of influence and gain effective safeguards ensuring that the U.S. will not deploy its military bases in Uzbek territory.
The meeting between U.S. Central Command Chief Martin E. Dempsey and Uzbek Defense Minister Ruslan Mirzayev, held in Tashkent at the end of August, only added to Moscow's fears concerning Tashkent's intentions to retrieve the U.S. military bases for location in the country. The Kremlin's discontent is also caused by the fact Uzbek President Islam Karimov did not publically approve Russia's actions in the Caucasus region and did not support at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit Russia's recognition of the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states.
To keep Tashkent from seeking partners in the West, Moscow intends to propose a long-term contract on purchasing Uzbek natural gas at European prices, scheduled for 2009-2020. According to a Russian government source, the contract was developed similarly to the contract on buying Turkmen gas signed by Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller in Ashgabat in July, although it did not specify the exact price. However, the cost of the Uzbek gas was voiced by Akylbek Tyumenbayev, Kyrgyz Deputy Minister of Industry, Energy, and Fuel Resources. During his meeting with businessmen in Bishkek last week, he announced that Kyrgyzstan intends to purchase Uzbek gas for $300 per 1,000 cubic meters in 2009, which means gas will cost twice as much for Gazprom.
Uzbekistan, which extracts up to 60 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually, with 7-8 billion sold to Gazprom, suffers from a fuel deficit on its domestic market. During the first six months of this year, Russia bought Uzbek gas for $130 per 1,000 cubic meters, while since July the price has been $160.
Vladimir Putin also intends to persuade Islam Karimov to agree on constructing a new long-haul gas pipeline between Uzbekistan and Russia, aimed at increasing the carrying capacities of the Central Asia-Center natural gas pipeline system from the current 45 billion cubic meters per year to 80-90 billion cubic meters. To achieve that, Putin will not only offer a new price for gas, but also renew Gazprom's investment offers on the program of exploration work in Uzbekistan's Ustyurtsky district.
In case Tashkent refuses the offer, Moscow has a backup alternative, a source from Gazprom said. In July, Alexei Miller met with Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov to discuss the construction of the Caspian gas pipeline with a capacity of 20 billion cubic meters per year and another long-haul gas pipeline able to carry up to 30 billion cubic meters.
Expert
Russia assumes harsher stand on NATO expansion
"Smile as we put a gun to your temple" is what the wordy American diplomacy essentially boils down to when it comes to NATO's eastward expansion and deployment of US antimissile bases in Europe. With this kind of diplomacy, it is no wonder they are heading for a crisis.
One just can't underestimate the extent of the crisis when US warships enter the Black Sea and Russia is diligently testing its new Topol M ballistic missiles. Moscow spent years trying to get the simple idea across to its Western partners that we won't have NATO military infrastructure closing in on the Russian border. It is the only thing that we find completely unacceptable.
So far, there is no reason for a serious conflict; but the US bases mushrooming in close proximity to our border are threatening to finally create one.
"We are a peace-loving nation and open to cooperation with our immediate neighbors and partners. But if some politicians believe that it's possible to come and kill people with impunity then it is high time for them to seriously think what consequences such a policy will have for them," Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said in an interview with CNN. It was a policy statement.
Russia did not decide automatically to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent countries immediately after the West recognized Kosovo. Russia then tried to stick by the territorial integrity principle because it realized how important it was. And it made every effort to preserve Georgia's integrity.
But President Mikheil Saakashvili crossed the line when he began killing people, many of them Russian citizens. It is impossible to keep protecting the integrity of a country that aims guns at you.
After a meeting with George Bush in Beijing, Russia expected Washington to intervene in the conflict and force its Georgian protege to stop slaughtering people. But it never happened. Then what kind of partnership between Russia and the US are we talking about? If we are partners, how should we interpret Washington's insistence on dragging Georgia into NATO? Can Russia still look at NATO as a peace-loving alliance open to mutually beneficial cooperation with us?
The answers to these questions are obvious and regrettable. They are the reason why Russia is assuming a harsher position on NATO's expansion plans. We cannot calmly accept an expansion of a military bloc which backs an aggressor guilty of mass genocide of our compatriots, so close to our borders.
Vedomosti
Even a great country does not necessarily need to interfere in its neighbors' politics
In 100 years, the gap between Russia and the world's leading powers has not got bigger. Nor has it got smaller. In 1908 Russia's GDP per capita was some 30% of the corresponding U.S. index. In 2008 the situation is the same. But Russia has paid quite a price for it. Even without taking into consideration the victims of repression and the high death toll during the wars, Russia paid too much for its greatest achievement of the 20th century - 40% of the American consumption rate, which, according to Soviet statistics, was reached at the end of the 1970s. Russia can catch up in the next century. It must do so.
It was essential to defend the civilian population of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. But Russia didn't need to be in opposition to the rest of the world. The country has found itself at a crossroads. To make the right choice, it must find its place in the world. Rating either first or second is an objective that requires too much from a country which has an ordinary European history. In the previous century, England, France, Belgium and Portugal had to experience the dissolution of their colonial empires. Many of those countries' citizens felt the same as Russians, but those states managed to overcome humiliation and find their places in the world. Unless it comes to defending civilian population, which was relevant in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, even a great country does not necessarily need to interfere in its neighbors' affairs. Aren't today's England, France, Germany and Japan great countries after all?
When a country is at a crossroads, much depends on its political leaders. Former president, Vladimir Putin, appeared the country's true political leader last month. He was the one to declare the policy of "frontal confrontation" with the immediate neighbors, America and Europe. But it would be incorrect to boil down Putin's actions solely to an attempt to hold on to power (the history of other countries and politicians shows that an aggressive foreign policy helps retain power inside the country). Judging from the statements and decisions of the previous years, the current line complies with Putin's view of his country's role in the world. He doesn't see Russia in any other place than first or second (after America).
Can a leader be found in the ruling elite who would be able to suggest an alternative and a milder line more in tune with the country's possibilities? That is the important question.
(Konstantin Sonin, Professor at the Russian School of Economics)
Nezavisimaya Gazeta, RBC Daily
Western pressure causes Russia to drift closer toward Iran, Venezuela
Three months ago, Iranian authorities said the country's first nuclear power plant in Bushehr could be commissioned in September or October 2008. Atomstroyexport, Russia's nuclear power equipment and service export monopoly, declined to comment on the deadlines in the run-up to the corporate delegation's Iranian visit, due to begin on Monday.
Expanded Russian-Iranian nuclear cooperation could become a response to Western threats to punish Russia for the war in Georgia and a possible bargaining chip in case of tough Western sanctions.
"The excessively tough Western and U.S. reaction to Russian actions with regard to Georgia compels Moscow to drift closer to Iran, Venezuela, and other similar countries," Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, told the paper.
Pukhov said Russia had previously scaled down support for Tehran on the international scene under Western influence, but that it could now end such pro-Western policies.
"The pendulum has now swung in the opposite direction because Russia faces tough pressure due to Caucasian developments, and because it needs partners and allies," Pukhov told the paper.
UN sanctions against Iran limit its international contacts in the nuclear and military spheres. Although the United States and the EU have cut back on investment, this does not affect small companies not involved in big-time politics.
Mohammed Shakil, an expert with the Economist Intelligence Unit, said Iran believed its relations with foreign companies were far from ideal and wanted to maintain normal trade contacts.
According to Shakil, small businesses have managed to circumvent EU sanctions, and to reduce their impact on the Iranian economy.
Shakil stressed that Tehran would closely follow the EU discussion on possible sanctions against Russia, and that anti-Iranian sanctions had mostly affected major European companies.
RIA Novosti is not responsible for the content of outside sources.
