MOSCOW, September 9 (RIA Novosti)
Moscow cannot help return Georgian refugees to South Ossetia / Russia comes up with response to NATO ships in Black Sea / Moscow estimates damage to Georgian economy / Kazakhstan, Russia may act jointly on European gas market / Russia will not ban U.S. poultry imports / Gazprom faces fine for shutting independent traders out
Novye Izvestia
Moscow cannot help return Georgian refugees to South Ossetia
The International Court of Justice in The Hague yesterday started a hearing on a complaint by Georgia, which describes the developments in South Ossetia as an anti-Georgian ethnic cleansing campaign and insists that Georgians be allowed to return to their homes.
Moscow would also like Georgian refugees to return to their homes, but this is unlikely given the logical outbreak of anti-Georgian sentiments in South Ossetia.
Tbilisi believes it will win the suit in The Hague.
Georgian State Minister for Reintegration Temur Yakobashvili said: "We have reasons to expect the Hague Tribunal to adopt a fair decision, because Georgia can provide irrefutable proof of ethnic cleansing in South Ossetia. We don't so much want to punish Russia, as to help refugees return to their homes."
Many in Georgia hope Moscow will encourage refugees to return to South Ossetia.
Georgian political analyst Paata Zakareishvili said: "No matter how the hearing in The Hague ends, Russia will have to settle the problem of refugees from South Ossetia. This is a kind of test for the troops that call themselves peacekeepers. Only by doing this will Russia avoid charges of ethnic cleansing."
Russia is facing a difficult choice. It must show that it can quickly reconstruct South Ossetia. However, Russian officials and members of parliament have so far been saying that Georgians and Ossetians cannot coexist and so the international community should recognize South Ossetia's independence.
Now Russian politicians are trying to marry the two views.
Alexei Ostrovsky, head of the committee on CIS affairs in the State Duma, the lower house of Russia's parliament, said: "It doesn't matter if the Hague Tribunal acts in accordance with law or yields to political considerations. Russia should do its best to ensure the return of Georgians to South Ossetia and their peaceful life there anyway. We used to say that Georgians and Ossetians can no longer coexist, but we meant they could not live together in a united state. There are no problems of this kind among ordinary people."
Alexei Malashenko, an expert at the Carnegie Moscow Center, said: "Georgians are unlikely to want to return home after their villages were destroyed. They may change their minds with time, when wounds start healing."
Gazeta.ru
Vremya Novostei
Rossiiskaya Gazeta
Russia comes up with response to NATO ships in Black Sea
The heavy nuclear-powered cruiser Pyotr Veliky will arrive off Venezuela in November at the head of a Russian flotilla. Officially, the Russian ships are sailing for an exercise in the Caracas area. But last week President Dmitry Medvedev threatened the United States with Russian vessels appearing in the Caribbean.
Pyotr Veliky joined the Russian navy in 1998. The cruiser, which is manned by a crew of 655, is powered by two KN-3 type nuclear reactors. Its armaments are as powerful as any in the world. She boasts Granit anti-ship missiles, the S-300F sea-to-air missile system, the Kinzhal independent ship-borne air defense system, the Kashtan anti-aircraft missile and gun system, and 130mm AK-130 artillery systems with a range of 22 kilometers.
"Under international law, such maneuvers off South America are fully justified," Admiral Eduard Baltin, a former commander of the Black Sea Fleet, told Rossiiskaya Gazeta. "Any two countries can agree about anything, including joint maneuvers in territorial or neutral waters."
Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Vremya Novostei that "it is not yet a matter of an exercise, simply a flotilla of Russia's warships will call at one of the Venezuelan ports for resupplies, which is typical of a distant cruise by any fleet." "News is being spread that Russia is seeking control points to assert its military strength in different regions and that we are incriminated in some geopolitical game. These are false signals. We are against a face-off and do not want a return to the logic of the past. This is not our way," the diplomat said.
Military analyst Vladimir Yevseyev disagrees and believes that the decision to hold an exercise flows directly from the worsening of relations between Russia and the West. "This is a very strong statement in all respects," he told Gazeta.ru. "To begin with, the exercise is to be conducted with Venezuela, which, in Washington's view, pursues an openly anti-American policy. Second, the presence of Pyotr Veliky will tell the Americans that their territory is vulnerable, too. Third, Russia shows that it is willing to establish relations with many countries in the region that are close to Venezuela, and Nicaragua's recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia's independence was not accidental."
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Moscow estimates damage to Georgian economy
The Russian government has published its preliminary estimates of the damage done to Georgia during the "peace enforcement" operation. The Russian Foreign Ministry said Georgia's direct infrastructural losses added up to $1 billion, or around 8% of the country's GDP.
This estimate coincides with the evaluation cited by Tbilisi earlier. However, experts believe both parties have overestimated the damage: Moscow, because it tends to exaggerate the destructive effect of its military force, and Tbilisi because it naturally wants to squeeze out more restoration money from its allies.
Leonid Grigoryev, president of the Energy and Finance Institute, does not believe Georgia's losses have really reached $1 billion.
"The ministry simply quoted Georgia's estimates, which in fact arouse doubts, because it is unclear how they count. They have probably put down things like blown up roads to military bases as 'damage to civilian infrastructure'," he said.
"Georgia's losses are certainly high; but if we leave out military facilities and equipment, it will be obvious that direct economic losses are small. European observers confirmed that, too; they said they had expected greater damage," he added.
Although it was difficult to evaluate damage in small towns near Gori and Poti yet, Grigoryev said the two cities were probably almost undamaged except for a few military buildings.
"Only several buildings were hit in Gori, near the military base. But President Mikheil Saakashvili gave televised press conferences in some luxury rooms in Gori and then in Poti, where nothing was destroyed at all, except several naval boats sunk," he added.
He said any armed conflict inevitably reduces economic activity; however, recent TV footage showed that the port of Poti continued operating even with Russian tanks in the city.
"Georgia's main development zones weren't affected, and I expect a number of economic projects were suspended, not cancelled," Grigoryev said.
Gazeta
Kazakhstan, Russia may act jointly on European gas market
Kazakhstan is considering buying gas assets in Europe jointly with Gazprom, said Timur Kulibayev, head of KazEnergy.
KazEnergy is an association established in November 2005 to facilitate the dynamic and sustainable development of Kazakhstan's fuel and energy sector.
Russian energy giant Gazprom refused to confirm or deny that information, saying that the joint acquisition of retail gas assets in Europe was Kazakhstan's wish but not an objective reality.
Kulibayev is married to Dinara Nazarbayev, the daughter of the Kazakh president. He was earlier the first deputy chairman of KazMunaiGaz, Kazakhstan's national oil and gas company. According to Forbes, his personal wealth exceeds $2 billion, and local analysts say he may be Kazakhstan's next president.
Kulibayev's words could be an overture. Russia and Kazakhstan are coordinating prices of Kazakh gas to be shipped to Ukraine via Russia in 2009.
Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have agreed with Gazprom to calculate gas prices according to the European formula minus shipping expenses, Gazprom's margin and export duties.
Kazakhstan has no such agreements with the Russian gas monopoly, which means its desire to buy assets in Europe is a concession Gazprom might make to win the loyalty of one of the region's main gas producers.
However, Kazakhstan is unlikely to accept the role of energy supplier. The development plans of KazMunaiGaz stipulate gaining access to the end user, a goal that cannot be achieved without Russia's assistance for geographical reasons, at least regarding Europe.
Analysts say Gazprom would benefit from having such a partner.
Mikhail Zak, chief analyst at the Veles Kapital investment company, said: "By doing this, Gazprom would improve the European countries' attitude to it, showing that it is not a ruthless monopoly but a company ready to share with its potential partners."
Alexander Shatilov, deputy chief of the Russian Center for Current Politics, said: "Europe regards the Kazakh business more favorably than Gazprom, and so we can talk about an attempt to use [Kazakhstan's] image [to improve the situation]. It is difficult to say how well a partnership with Kazakhstan may develop, but airing the possibility was a good move."
Kommersant
Russia will not ban U.S. poultry imports
Though Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Russia would close its market to at least 19 U.S. poultry meat producers, the government has only introduced minor limitations for Sanderson, one of the top five U.S. exporters of poultry meat to Russia, and warned another exporter, Tyson, as well as promised to limit U.S. pork imports.
The Agriculture Ministry yesterday said the import of poultry meat to Russia would be cut by approximately 200,000 tons, and possibly by only 50,000 tons in the best case situation in 2009. The total import quota for U.S. poultry meat for 2008 is 901,000 tons.
A source in the ministry said on condition of anonymity that it was a temporary decision, as "problems in the U.S. poultry farming call for changing the technology or rerouting exports to less demanding markets, such as Ukraine."
Sergei Yushin, chief of Russia's National Meat Association, said the decision to reduce the quota had been coordinated with Russian producers and was taken after "a thorough analysis of Russian production targets and the dynamics of the demand and prices."
The Agriculture Ministry also took into account the fact that a reduction of the quota by over 200,000 tons would have dramatically increased poultry meat prices, Yushin said.
"The main thing is that the assessment was not influenced by political considerations, but was based on market realities and economic expediency," he said.
However, some rivals of U.S. poultry exporters have criticized the ministry's proposal.
Sergei Lisovsky, deputy chairman of the agrarian policy committee at the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, said: "The reduction of the quotas by 200,000 tons would benefit only U.S. exporters, allowing them to maintain profits and weed out small suppliers."
He said the quota should be cut by at least 600,000 tons and explained the ministry's soft decision down to bureaucratic resistance.
"The prime minister has ordered a revision of several agreements signed to facilitate Russia's upcoming accession to the World Trade Organization, including the agreements on meat and poultry supplies to Russia," Lisovsky said. "But no practical steps have been taken to review these agreements. It appears that Russian bureaucrats do not want to cut imports, because they have learned to benefit from them."
Agriculture Minister Alexei Gordeyev also said the cost of U.S. pork imports could be raised in September or October.
Vedomosti
Gazprom faces fine for shutting independent traders out
Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin said in July he would make sure independent gas companies have access to pipelines; in September, the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) found a reason to fine Gazprom.
Gazprom will have to pay for a refusal to give access to its pipelines to Trans Nafta, an independent gas trader, FAS spokesperson Maria Chernova told Vedomosti.
"We filed a complaint with FAS in March, after Gazprom denied us access to the pipeline system to ship gas to Tatenergo," said Trans Nafta CEO Sergei Stepanov. "But Gazprom only allowed us to deliver the commodity via an intermediary, Gazenergokompleks."
FAS believes Gazprom prevented Trans Nafta's access to the regional gas market for no objective economic or technical reason, thus violating anti-trust law, Chernova said, adding that the monopoly was now facing a fine of 1% to 15% of its proceeds from gas transportation services.
The amount of the fine will be discussed as part of the proceedings in the administrative case, said FAS deputy head Anatoly Golomolzin. He said it was to be calculated from Gazprom's traffic proceeds in Tatarstan alone, not the total (41.7 billion rubles in 2007). The regulator will also have to decide who it should fine, the monopoly or one of its subsidiaries in Tatarstan.
Mikhail Korchemkin, director of the East European Gas Analysis consultancy, estimated the possible fine at $19.6-$314 million. Gazprom said it would appeal against the FAS decision.
Alexei Makarkin, vice president of the Center of Political Technologies, a Moscow think tank, said Gazprom hasn't been able to dictate the rules of the game on the gas market since Sechin (the former board chairman at Rosneft) joined the government. The government sets the rules now.
A government resolution is being drafted under Sechin's supervision which would regulate independent gas producers' access to gas pipelines.
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