This year's meetings of the Club, an annual conference bringing together experts in international relations from Russia and around the world, in fact marked the starting point of the new game. This was purely by chance, as Georgia's attack on Tskhinvali took place exactly a month before the planned annual meeting of the club.
But even if it were not for this coincidence, the big game would have still begun where it did - at a major expert meeting. What I mean by experts here is not people employed by various research centers. I mean people who advise their governments. Expert consultations are followed by confidential negotiations, which are in turn followed by open talks - this an established procedure.
The Valdai Club is known to the international community mainly thanks to its traditional last day meetings with Vladimir Putin, and this year also with Dmitry Medvedev, and other Russian leaders. Although these final meeting are in part held behind closed doors, much of what happens there becomes generally known in a few days anyway, because the global media elite are among the experts invited.
But the most important part of the club's work is the Valdai Conference, which usually takes place over two days. At this year's conference in Rostov-on-Don a lot of interesting things came up pertaining to the current international crisis.
It is worth mentioning here that the club's meetings feature little propaganda and few impassioned statements. Almost all the participants are professionals who do not have to be told things like who really unleashed the war.
They rarely argue; what they do is rather share their assessments, and sometimes send signals that are part of pre-diplomatic work. And, in this case, they are people who realize perfectly well that any war eventually ends with negotiating peace. They know that we are entering that stage now.
With South Ossetia it isn't easy to tell who has won the war. Everyone seems to have been hurt by it, including Georgia, the United States, the European Union and Russia. This only aggravates the situation, making it really acute.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Robert Blackwill, who is now deputy national security adviser, said it looked like Western and Russian leaders woke up every morning with new ideas of how to spoil their relations still further. He said it is necessary to calm down. Back in the Soviet times there were at least no personal insults between leaders, but now the EU, U.S. and Russia communicate only through press conferences.
Georgia is not the essential reason for this conflict. In fact, it was the sudden manifestation of problems that had been accumulating since 1991. There was a feeling at some points in the conference that it was really focused on Europe's annoyance with America over Georgia, Russia and much more.
Here are some opinions voiced at the conference.
- There are actually two crises, a healthy one, and an unhealthy one. The bad one is unfolding between Russia and Europe as a whole, the good one, between Europe and the United States. The war in Georgia was the manifestation of a conflict between Europe and the United States over NATO expansion, which America has tried to impose on Europe. Europe needs new relations with the U.S. above all, and indirectly, with Russia. (Jonathan Steele, The Guardian, Great Britain)
- We are now paying for 15 years of ignoring Russia. We don't have the nerve to oppose the U.S. within NATO, or over Kosovo. (Thierry de Montbrial, head of the French Institute of International Relations)
- The way the European mass media covered the conflict in Georgia was not the first case of encouraging confrontation. The Americans destroyed the free press at the beginning of the war in Iraq. The media participated in selling the lies to the American public with catastrophic results. (Professor Anatole Lieven, King's College, London)
- The entire scheme of partnership with Russia is ineffective. Yet, we need one. What should it be like? (James Sherr, director of the Russia and Eurasia Program of the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London)
- The U.S. and European strategy in the Middle East and Central Asia includes three fights - one around Afghanistan and Pakistan, one in the Caucasus and one in Central Asia. In two cases out of three the U.S. could be partners with Russia. All the three strategies are incompatible. It was wrong to quarrel with two of the region's countries, Russia and Iran, which used to fight the Taliban. (Anatole Lieven)
They have not produced too many answers to the vital questions of what to do and how to do it. One was that the time for mutual threats has passed, and that it is now time for mutual concessions and serious consultations. The problem is that the parties have so far laid out only their clashing positions. But the situation is familiar. It is at least good that each of the opponents can see the others' extremes.
More excerpts from presentations at the conference confirm this idea:
- Twenty-seven countries have supported one aggressor killing 2,000 civilians. Moscow did not take offence, but it drew some conclusions: Our attempt at integration with the West is over now. We are a separate part of the world, and the West is more of a problem than a help to us. Ukraine is becoming a priority. Its accession to NATO is a direct threat to Russia. We will do anything to prevent it. (Vyacheslav Nikonov, executive director of the Russian World foundation.)
- The United States admitted that Georgia was wrong to attack South Ossetia. It isn't the moment for the United States to quarrel with Russia. We have already paid for the conflict, as Russia slapped a ban on importing frozen chicken quarters from the U.S. in retaliation for the uranium agreement recalled from the Congress. But if Russia begins ousting the United States from Central Asia, tensions will grow. There is also the issue of weapons supplies to Syria and Iran.
So, we are back to the key problems in Russia's relations with the West, which preferred to ignore Russia for a long time. Did we really need a war to push matters forward?
In any case, the preparations for building new relations will go on, quietly and slowly, but surely. The U.S. is busy with the run-up for the presidential elections, where candidates need to look strong. Time will show what will happen next. But in any case, the Valdai Club conference is leading the current diplomatic marathon.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
