Their logic is clear: Russian airlines have many second-hand aircraft which, as a popular American song goes, fly "on a wing and a prayer."
Of more than 5,700 state-registered civilian aircraft at most only 2,500 are operational. Having exhausted their service life, the rest are rusting in hangars without any hope of being repaired. The majority of Russian planes are in their declining years. Long-distance aircraft have for the most part been in operation for almost two decades, and regional planes for three decades.
Experts maintain that no more than 10% of the aircraft flown by Russian airlines are modern. The overwhelming majority of foreign-built airliners flying under the Russian tricolor are second-hand. This was the case with the Boeing-737, which was built in 1992, and had been used by several Chinese airlines. Even big companies find it difficult to afford new aircraft. Taxes and customs duties amount to almost 40% of the cost.
Second-hand airliners are much cheaper. The same Boeing-737 of the Classic generation may be bought for $5-15 million depending on its age and condition. Prices on new aircraft start from $50 million. Monthly payments on a leasing scheme are between $100,000 and $300,000. The 737 that crashed in Perm was taken by an Aeroflot subsidiary on such a lease.
Many airlines never order aircraft from domestic producers. The bulk of Russian-built planes, even relatively new ones like the Tu-204 and Tu-214, seriously lag behind their foreign counterparts and often do not meet international standards, meaning they cannot be flown abroad.
They are also far more expensive to operate. The Tu-154M consumes $15,000 worth of fuel more than the European A-320, while the Il-96 burns almost 50% more fuel than the American Boeing-767. With prices on aviation doubling in the past year alone, this is a very compelling reason not to fly Russian aircraft.
As a result, almost one third of all passenger flights are performed by foreign aircraft. Their share will further increase in the next few years because all Tu-134s are being put out of operation at the order of Transportation Minister Igor Levitin. Before long, Tu-154 aircraft, which are the backbone of the Russian civilian fleet, will be scrapped as well.
Even second-hand Western airliners, mostly Boeings and Airbuses, are younger than our veterans. On average, they are no more than 10 years old. But they are not absolutely fail-safe, either. It is enough to recall the terrible A-130 crash during landing in Irkutsk in the summer of 2006. That aircraft was built in 1987.
In the last few years, international organizations and the European Union have made numerous complaints about Russian airlines, and the Transportation Ministry has to admit that they are often well-grounded. Many aircraft are not only below international standards but are simply unsafe.
Statistics show that in the United States only 0.09 people die out of a million passengers, which compares with 0.486 in the world civil aviation, and 0.777 in Russia. In 2006, a black year for Russian aviation, 318 people were killed in the air, more than in the previous 10 years put together.
Russians are going to fly even more, but on what? Experts believe that Russia will need from 800 to 1,000 airliners of different classes in the next 10 years. Last year, Russia produced only six aircraft.
At a conference on aviation development in Ulyanovsk last week, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said: "with such a modest scale of production, we will not achieve much either in world aircraft building or even on our own market."
The United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) was set up a couple of years ago to redress the situation in the industry. It has to tackle a truly Herculean task - to produce up to 300 aircraft a year by 2025. By that time, it is hoped, the share of Russian liners in the world market will reach 10-15%, an increase by 10 or 15 times.
However, this does not apply to all planes. At the same conference Putin mentioned the decision on what the UAC will produce. In the next few years, the regional Yak-40 and Tu-134 will be replaced with the Sukhoi SuperJet-100. Starting from 2015, it will manufacture the MS-21, which will replace not only the Tu-154 and Tu-204, but also one of our favorites, the A-320.
Regrettably, Russian aircraft builders are not planning to make long-distance jets.
Will our airlines wait for the new aircraft, or will they prefer second-hand Western models? The struggle for the Russian market is toughening with every year. As the prime minister put it: "the Russian aviation industry has a very short takeoff runway."
Will we able to take off?
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
