MOSCOW, September 24 (RIA Novosti)
On Russia's navy / Russian politicians provoking Ukraine / Russia may mobilize reservists / Russian authorities and public unable to counter xenophobia / Nabucco project cannot be implemented without Russia - Mandel / LUKoil has little chance of getting back to Iraq
Kommersant
On Russia's navy
Russia has been in the spotlight of the international community lately. Journalists, experts and political analysts, as well as idle observers, are discussing whether or not Russia should want to follow in the Soviet Union's tracks as it restores its old positions in the Middle East and globally.
Is it good or bad that a Russian squadron would stop by Syria's Tartus port during a maneuver? It's quite touching to hear lay people deliberate on where warships should head, where they should put in and how much government money it will cost, said Yevgeny Satanovsky, president of the Institute of Middle East Studies.
Russia, with the world's longest coastline, needs ships, and it certainly needs a strong navy. If it does have one, it is also good that the navy is making forays into the world's seas. It certainly prevents organized units capable of performing important tasks from degenerating into a bunch of rusty buckets of various shapes and sizes, the analyst added.
One of the tasks could involve patrolling the coast of once "socialist-oriented" Somalia, where pirates regularly board passing ships, some of them with Russian crews.
True, one cannot expect a navy to perform a round-the-world voyage easily after being grounded for 15 years. But its ships should at least travel to the Bosporus and Dardanelles, or to the Bering Strait from time to time. Otherwise, it isn't a navy, but rather an intercoastal fleet with enhanced fire power.
A navy cannot operate without bases. The one in Sevastopol is critically important because it is the only base of its class in the vicinity. It is here that Russian-Ukrainian tensions are rooted. Ukrainian leaders are dreaming of NATO accession, and the alliance might one day heed their desire ill-advisedly.
A planned base in Tartus could remove this problem.
A grounded navy is cheap; a capable one costs rather a lot. It sounds like a problem unless one tries to estimate the eventual costs of the "cheap" navy if need came to actually use it, Satanovsky maintained.
The suspicion that the Syrian government is trying to attain its own foreign political goals by letting Russian warships into Tartus, and might "sell" the Russian naval base to the United States if the latter offers to "buy," is certainly justified.
Damascus' speculations that the Russian base would protect it in the event of a conflict with Israel are rather unnerving, too, after Moscow received no gratitude in a similar situation in the 1990s.
However, if there is a lesson modern Russia should learn from the Soviet experience, it should never bet everything on one horse in the Middle East, the analyst concluded.
Vremya Novostei
Russian politicians provoking Ukraine
Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the maverick leader of Russia's Liberal Democratic Party, has appeared on the Ukraina TV Channel saying that Russia will exercise its right to begin an armed invasion of Ukraine if that country's government attempts a genocide of the country's Russian population.
"It will all depend on the residents of the Crimea, as well as eastern and southern parts of Ukraine. It should be decided by referendum. Maybe Ukraine will choose to be a neutral state - there will be no problems then. But try bombing Simferopol, Kharkov, Donetsk and other cities - you can be sure that we'll defend them," the outspoken politician said.
Ukrainian-Russian relations are far from straightforward and simple. Moreover, they have become strained over the recent Georgian-South Ossetian conflict. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has taken a clearly pro-Georgian stance.
The obsessive desire of many Ukrainian leaders to join NATO is provoking Moscow's indignation.
Zhirinovsky's statement amid this sounded like a provocation and an attempt to split Ukrainian society. But will that split be good news for Russia?
Georgy Chizhov, deputy head of the Center for Political Technologies think tank, said Russia has shown very volatile reactions to Ukrainian developments lately. He said Russia is unlikely to benefit from a separatist conflict in Ukraine.
"Supporting Ukrainian separatist movements might be a relevant thing to do if our sole priority were to prevent that country from joining NATO. But it would be better to deal with a stable and predictable neighbor, which is dependent on Russia's energy anyway and could be a potentially loyal ally," he added.
He said Zhirinovsky's statement could be his own initiative or it could be a probe of public sentiment. "It was clearly an exaggeration; it is unimaginable that Ukrainian forces would start bombing Donbass or Kharkov. It is possible, however, that influential forces in Ukraine could bring up legalizing eastern Ukraine as an autonomous region," Chizhov concluded.
Sergei Markedonov, head of the ethnic relations department at the Institute of Political and Military Analysis, said: "The Ukrainian political elite should be asked whether or not they want to preserve their country's unity in the first place." He believes Yushchenko's policy is splitting Ukraine, while the political elite is exacerbating tensions between eastern and western regions instead of trying to smooth them over.
They invited Zhirinovsky to speak on TV because they want to show Russia as a source of hysteria, he said.
RBC Daily
Russia may mobilize reservists
A new concept of training and accumulating reserves for law-enforcement and security bodies has been approved in Russia.
Reservists will sign contracts assigning them to units with the Defense Ministry and related departments and receive a monthly payment.
Analysts say this is one of the measures designed to bolster Russia's ability to resist potential geopolitical threats.
At present, the reserve forces exist only on paper, because the armed forces are still based on conscription and discharged servicemen are registered as part of reserve forces after obligatory military service. They are seldom called up for military training, and recruitment offices find it very hard to collect enough reservists for full-scale training.
Major General Andrei Kolesov, a spokesman of the General Staff, said that under the new mobilization system each reservist would be assigned to a specific unit by signing contracts.
The Defense Ministry's survey shows that 38% of Russians are prepared to sign contracts on reserve service now, the majority of them because such contracts stipulate a monthly payment of 7,000 rubles ($280).
The first stage of the plan is to be implemented by 2010.
Alexander Khramchikhin, chief analyst at the Institute of Political and Military Analysis, said: "Today the armed forces do not care for the reservists, who have only a formal status. Reservists who are enticed to show up for military training usually choose a military profession randomly and are assigned to any available unit."
The implementation of the concept will be a revolutionary and highly effective move because a conscription army should have well-trained reserves, he said.
Yesterday Russia's Public Chamber proposed adopting a law to prohibit reservists who evade military training to hold official posts. This should encourage people to undergo military training.
Vladimir Yevseyev, an expert with the Moscow-based Institute of World Economy and International Relations, said: "We expect Russia's main deterrence instrument, the strategic nuclear forces, to deteriorate the most in 2010-2015. This means we will need trained personnel, including reservists, to counter potential military threats."
Gazeta.ru
Russian authorities and public unable to counter xenophobia
The Russian authorities and the public believe tolerance is the only weapon in the fight against xenophobia. The Council of Europe has offered an equally ineffective formula against ethnic intolerance - a strategic concept.
It says Europe is worried by the lack of a comprehensive strategy of combating racial discrimination in Russia. Experts from the European Commission against Racism and Intolerance point to a growth of racial violence and racist statements in Russia, although statistics do not corroborate their claim.
Galina Kozhevnikova of the Sova information analytical center, which reports on hate crime, ultra-nationalism and counteraction in Russia, said the number of hate crimes had decreased in 2008.
European experts could be accused of inconsistency, but it does not really matter if the number of hate crimes has or has not grown in September 2008 year on year. What matters is that Europe thinks the number of such crimes is too high, nationalist sentiments are too dangerous, and the organization and activity of racist militants and their ideologists have grown to threatening proportions in Russia.
However, drafting a comprehensive strategy to fight this evil, as the Council of Europe has proposed, is unlikely to move past the stage of trying to cram hundreds of recommendations into a streamlined concept.
The authorities have admitted that nationalism does exist in Russia, which is good. The bad thing is that they used their admission to strangle radical opposition, but then, it would be naive to think they would act contrary to their own interests.
Nobody knows what can be done in this situation. Kozhevnikova said: "New members are being recruited into racist movements, especially in Moscow, because many [skinheads] have been arrested."
We should probably admit that sentiments encouraging skinheads to use knives against non-Russians have become widespread. Sociologists have confirmed this.
Ethnic and social xenophobia is not a specifically Russian vice, but one of the unpleasant sides of human nature, which civilization can restrain but not liquidate. In some cases, this evil is even used to attain specific political goals or settle accounts with rival powers.
Kommersant
Nabucco project cannot be implemented without Russia - Mandel
Claude Mandel, former director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said the planned Nabucco pipeline, due to pump natural gas from Turkey to Austria, via Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary, could not be built without Russia.
Mandel said the Nabucco project could only be implemented together with Russia, rather than to its detriment, and that last month's war with Georgia over its breakaway South Ossetia province had not changed his viewpoint, and that specific gas transit routes should not be opposed.
He said the European Union's tremendous energy demand could be met through Nord Stream, an offshore gas pipeline between Vyborg, Russia and Greifswald, Germany; South Stream, a proposed gas pipeline to transport Russian natural gas to Italy, via Bulgaria and Serbia to Hungary and Austria; and the Nabucco project.
According to Mandel, Russia will contribute the bulk of gas to the three pipelines, because Central Asia has fewer hydrocarbon resources than Russia or Iran.
Nabucco remains unattractive because there will not be enough gas to fill the pipeline to capacity if Russia and Iran are excluded, Mandel told the paper.
Secondly, the planned pipeline will cross several countries which must ensure absolutely transparent transits; but, we still have many questions to Turkey in this respect, Mandel said.
I can agree with attempts by Alexei Miller, CEO of energy giant Gazprom, to thwart the Nabucco project, which is reportedly aimed at ridding the EU of Russian gas, Mandel told the paper.
He said U.S. efforts in this sphere could prove counterproductive, and that only the EU must tackle its own energy safety issues.
Although Washington relies heavily on Venezuelan oil, not a single EU country is mentioning this problem, which must be tackled by the United States, Mandel said.
Europe does not know whether Russia has enough gas for fulfilling its export contracts. Nor does it have any accurate information on the Russian gas sector and the state of national gas deposits, he said
He said gas suppliers could not profit from the situation because volatile markets prompted customers to find new solutions, and that Russia should make such information public in order to alleviate European fears of possible energy shortages.
Gazeta.ru
Gazeta
LUKoil has little chance of getting back to Iraq
Royal Dutch Shell is staging a comeback to Iraq. It may be followed by ExxonMobil, Chevron, Total, and BP. Russia's LUKoil has little chance of doing the same.
After a 36-year break, Royal Dutch Shell is returning to Iraq. It is the second foreign oil and gas company, after China's Sinopec, to have made a deal with Iraq's new government. They agreed that Shell and Iraq's state-owned South Gas Company will set up a joint venture 49% owned by Shell to process petroleum gas in Basra Province.
Shell representative Linda Cook said that so far petroleum gas will be produced for domestic needs. Iraq currently produces 330 million cubic meters of gas daily. But 65% of it is flared.
According to unconfirmed reports, for permission to operate in Iraq, Shell will invest between $3 and $4 billion in the project within the next five years. The project also provides for the construction of natural gas liquefaction facilities.
Experts say that Shell's return heralds the return of other oil and gas giants - ExxonMobil, Chevron, Total, and BP. The increased interest in Iraq on the part of Western "majors" is certain to unnerve Russian companies.
"While previously LUKoil could expect some privileged status in the republic, now, as more firms come forward to invest in Iraq's oil and gas sector, the company's positions are getting weaker," said Svetlana Savchenko, director of the investment planning department at 2K Audit-Business Consulting, an independent consulting group.
She said that the Russian company had been working in the republic since 1997 and invested $4 billion in the Western Qurna-2 field. But last year, following a fresh surge of interest in Iraq from leading Western companies, LUKoil's contribution was in effect declared null and void.
"Russia should press for the re-confirmation of its oil and gas contracts, in particular, one to develop Western Qurna-2," said Stanislav Avgust, an analyst with Finam brokerage. "All previous agreements concluded with Chinese, Vietnamese, Indonesian and Indian firms have been honored."
The analyst said that an increasing presence of overseas companies in Iraq is putting Russia at a disadvantage: Iraqi oil could be supplied through Turkey to Europe, creating competition for Russian deliveries.
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