"I am saying what no previous Israeli leader has ever said: we should withdraw from almost all of the territories, including in East Jerusalem and in the Golan Heights," Olmert told in an interview to the Yedioth Ahronoth on the eve of the Jewish New Year.
Olmert's statement seems astounding only at first thought. Only an ignorant person far from the reality of the Middle East could believe that Israel would pull out from the Golan Heights, leaving their settlements on the West Bank, or withdraw from East Jerusalem and leave it to Arabs. It will take decades to do even a third of what Olmert has said.
The possibility of Israel withdrawing from the Golan Heights, which was Syria's territory captured by Israel in the Six-Day War of 1967, was mentioned back in the beginning of the 1990s by former Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, which cost him his life - he was assassinated by Yigal Amir, a radical right-wing Orthodox Jew, in Tel Aviv on November 4, 1995. Amir claimed he was saving the country from the Oslo Accords. In 1993, at the negotiations in Oslo, Yitzhak Rabin recognized the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), while PLO leader Yasser Arafat officially recognized Israel. The agreements resulted in establishing the Palestinian National Authority (PNA), which took control over part of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, with mixed reactions coming from the Israeli people, part of whom considered Rabin a hero for his efforts to ensure peace while the others saw him as a traitor who gave away the lands which belonged to Israel.
At the end of the 1990s, the possibility of returning East Jerusalem to Arabs was considered by Israeli politician Ehud Barak. However, the second Palestinian uprising, or the Second Intifada, which broke out in 2000, brought all peace-making efforts to a halt, with the "hawk" Ariel Sharon taking the place of the "dove" Ehud Barak.
For Israel, the issue of East Jerusalem is much more painful than the Gaza Strip, which was given away to Palestinians three years ago, or the West Bank currently under control of the Palestinian National Authority and partly by Israel. East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights were captured by Israel in the Six-Day War in 1967 to be annexed in 1980 - that is, according to the local law they are treated not as captured territory but as part of Israel. Meanwhile, United Nations Security Council did not recognize the act of annexation (the U.S. abstained from the voting), and in line with the UN plan on dividing the Palestine, Jerusalem had to become an international territory and not a capital of any state. Now, Israelis call Jerusalem their 'united and undivided' native land, while Palestinian Arabs intend to declare East Jerusalem, most of whose residents are Arabs, as the future capital of a Palestinian state.
The situation with the Golan Heights is no less complicated. Twelve years ago, the "doves" of Israeli politics, Yitzhak Rabin and later his successor Shimon Peres, spoke of the possibility to return the Heights to Syria. Peres mentioned a compensation of $17 billion for resettling the Israelis living in the area. Bill Clinton administration was ready to pay it. However, today the Israelis claim the sum is insufficient.
The Golan Heights' key resource is not land but the Sea of Genneseret, or Lake Kinneret. Damascus lost the territory and the access to its water resources in the Six-Day War, with the water supply issue being more urgent for Israel than for Syria.
So far, it is unclear how much Israel will claim as compensation for water from the U.S. Even if Tel Aviv agrees on peace with Syria, the Israeli government will demand that the international mediators, primarily the U.S., provide guarantees for security of the country's northern borders, which means that they will have to secure peace in southern Lebanon. Syria, however, is unlikely to offer Israel these guarantees, which should instead be demanded from Iran, the latter providing wide and abundant support to the Lebanon-based Shia Islamic political and militant organization Hezbollah.
But even if we imagine the impossible - that Syrians and Israelis agree on peace talks without mediators involved - the peace agreement will not be reached any time soon.
First, neither the U.S., France, Turkey nor any other mediator countries in the Middle East would be able to pay the sum claimed by the Syrians, Palestinians and Israeli for establishing peace.
Second, no Israeli Prime Minister could solve the war and peace issues without coordination with the Knesset. Getting a majority vote in the Knesset is a task impossible for Tzipi Livni, the current leader of the Kadima party and the Acting Prime Minister charged with setting up the parliamentary coalition. Only such charismatic politicians as Ariel Sharon and Yitzhak Rabin would have been able to persuade the Knesset, and they are unparallel on Israeli political scene so far.
Third, the process is hindered by the lack of unity and, in fact, a civil war among Palestinians, between Fatah and Hamas political parties, both claiming East Jerusalem as the capital of their future state.
And finally, it is the unwillingness of most Israelis and many Arabs to live in peace that aggravates the situation.
There are too many obstacles, so the statement of soon to retire Olmert is apparently destined to remain on paper for a great while.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
