MOSCOW, October 7 (RIA Novosti)
Economic crunch spotlights need for global integration / Black Mondays come more often than London buses / Israel's military aid to Georgia unlikely to affect Russian-Israeli relations / Russian Synod refuses to absorb South Ossetian, Abkhazian orthodox churches/ Turkey, Azerbaijan worried over Saakashvili's temper/ Victory Avenue in Grozny to bear the name of Vladimir Putin/
Gazeta.ru
Economic crunch spotlights need for global integration
Political differences are increasing the distance between the leading global powers, but economic reality is forcing them to unite their forces.
The United States, the European Union and Russia accuse each other of "double standards" and ignoble scheming, but they have common economic problems and need to take joint action to solve them.
This year's World Policy Conference in Evian cannot agree on a new system of international security without considering mechanisms of reacting to economic threats that can bury any political initiatives.
In this situation, a new Cold War would be politically unwise and economically dangerous. The West is seen to have won the Cold War against the Soviet Union, but there would be no winners this time.
The leading - so far - world powers are unlikely to accept the idea of impoverished North Korea as the only "island of economic stability" after a new Cold War. Worse still, the global stability level will depend on the quality of life in North Korea after such a war.
When discussing a new system of international security, the countries that are ready to assume responsibility for mankind must remember that they will also have to coordinate emergency tactical measures, and not only strategic principles of reacting to economic shocks.
The number of global political poles and the demise of the unipolar world, which the Russian political elite loves to deliberate about, are secondary to the task of deciding who will minimize global economic risks and on what conditions, and whether they will coordinate their actions with other global players.
The growing economic crisis is pushing humanity toward global integration, because the economy has long broken out of territorial and ideological boundaries.
The world still needs to formulate ways to curb the nuclear ambitions of politically unpredictable countries, and to respect basic principles in international politics. But the integration of the leading global powers to solve economic problems is becoming a key condition for maintaining at least moderate stability in the world.
This is the common evil that no country standing alone can defeat. Therefore, the ability of countries claiming global leadership to agree and work effectively with each other in order to clear up the consequences of economic quakes will be the best proof of their ability to solve political problems too.
Kommersant, Vedomosti
Black Mondays come more often than London buses
Last Monday crushed the last hopes for a rescue of the global financial system.
Despite the urgently compiled Paulson bailout plan, stock market players continue selling off assets all over the world, with Russia in the lead in the global stock market meltdown. Russia's MICEX and RTS indexes plunged by 18.66-19.10%, leaving investors in panic and prodding creditors to hastily dump pledged assets, thus pushing the market further down.
According to analysts, only speculators place purchase bids these days, obviously expecting to profit on a further plunge.
The Paulson plan came desperately late. Easing the current liquidity squeeze for several market players was all it could accomplish, while resolving the financial sector's key problems is certainly beyond its reach, said Ivan Ivanchenko, head of investment strategic at VTB Capital.
Russian stock markets have plunged to their low since August 2005, with most blue chips losing 14-30% on the MICEX led by Norilsk Nickel (down 30.16%).
Emotions are running high on the market, obviously obscuring rational judgment. "I have heard apocalyptic rhetoric from just about everyone here today," said Alexander Zakharov, deputy head of equities at Moscow-based Metropol brokerage.
"Chaos, panic and catastrophe" were the exact words used by Roman Shvets, a Renaissance Capital trader to describe the current market situation for his clients.
"Black Mondays used to happen once in a decade. Now they come more regularly than London buses," said senior trader at ETX Capital, Manoj Ladwa.
They are selling everything off. Western and Russian customers alike are getting rid of their own positions as well as of portfolios they kept as collateral, added Timur Nasardinov, chief trader at Troika Dialog.
"It's not a market, it's a nightmare," echoed Denis Novikov, head of Alliance Continental managing company's active operations department.
The last few days proved once again that local stabilization measures do not help.
"The Russian market is 50%-70% dependent on foreign investors, who keep divesting and selling their assets despite all the Russian government's efforts," Ivanchenko concluded.
"There is a new macro-trend taking shape: investors adjust stock prices for an expectation that the global economy will plunge into recession, not just slow down," said Anton Rakhmanov, head of securities group at Renaissance Investment Management.
According to Ivanchenko, the only thing that could remedy the situation would be a strong and well coordinated effort of all governments across the globe, which is highly improbable, as even local anti-crisis measures are pushed through with difficulty in many countries.
Vedomosti
Novye Izvestia
Israel's military aid to Georgia unlikely to affect Russian-Israeli relations
Although the Israelis, according to Georgia's President Mikheil Saakashvili, have contributed a good deal to the training of the Georgian army, this will not overshadow Russian-Israeli relations.
Ahead of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's visit to Russia, which began on Monday, a Kremlin source said that Olmert and President Dmitry Medvedev were to discuss energy and high technology. He did not say they would discuss supplies of Israeli weapons to Georgia.
Israel timely froze its military ties with Georgia. On September 23, the Israeli Foreign Ministry's Deputy Director General for Russia and CIS Countries Pinhas Avivi told a group of Russian military experts and journalists at the Israeli Foreign Ministry that from spring there had been secret agreement on a mutual scaling down of Israeli military supplies to Georgia and of Russian ones to Syria and Iran, said a Russian participant. Avivi claimed that Israel had stopped all military deliveries to Tbilisi well before the August war and had informed Russia of all its military supplies to Georgia. Russia, according to the official, also stuck to a "constructive and restrained" position concerning military supplies to Syria and Iran. Besides, Moscow is brokering contacts between Israel and Syria.
Israeli firms supplied the Georgian army with several types of unmanned aerial vehicles, upgraded their T-72 tanks (some of which were captured by the Russian army), and provided means of communications and reconnaissance, machine guns and ammunition, said a source in the Russian Defense Ministry. But, as Israeli officials claimed at meetings with Russian journalists, the delivery of 300 Merkava 3 and Merkava 4 tanks to Georgia for $3 million was blocked by the Israeli Defense Ministry.
A private Israeli intermediary who lobbied the deal wanted to sell these tanks in advance, but the price was beyond Georgia's economic means, suggesting the project was a swindle pure and simple, said Konstantin Makiyenko, an analyst with the Center for the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, although on the whole Israeli aid for Georgia was considerable.
A source in the Russian Defense Ministry confirmed that Israel had held back from supplying some weapons to Georgia, and Israeli advisers left Tbilisi a few days before the conflict.
The manager of one of the Russian defense industry companies confirmed there are no contracts to supply Syria with Iskander missiles or S-300 ground-to-air missile systems, about which Israel fretted.
Mikhail Margelov, chairman of the Federation Council's international affairs committee, believes arms trade with Iran is an economic undertaking and there are no grounds for curtailing it as yet: "Russia is not concerned about passing on nuclear technology to Iran, and trade in conventional and non-offensive weapons is for us rather an economic proposition where we enjoy competitive advantages."
Kommersant
Russian Synod refuses to absorb South Ossetian, Abkhazian orthodox churches
The Synod of Bishops of the Russian Orthodox Church refused on Monday to assimilate churches in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which are seeking to leave the Georgian Orthodox Church, thus openly supporting the Georgian Patriarchate - its only ally in a fight for influence among former CIS countries.
The two churches expressed their wish to leave the Georgian Church and join the Russian Orthodox Church as self-regulated bodies this summer, when the situation in the North Caucasus became aggravated. According to the head of the Abkhaz Orthodox Church, Fr Vissarion Aplia, the Church had repeatedly addressed the Moscow Patriarchate with the request, but solving the issue was hindered by the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia remaining unrecognized.
The Russian Orthodox Church's view on incorporating the two churches was previously voiced by Vsevolod Chaplin, deputy head of the Moscow Patriarchate's department of public relations, who said that, "Political decisions should not influence church-related issues. This issue has to be solved by dialogue between the two churches."
Yet, according to Andrei Kurayev, deacon and a renowned theologian of the Russian Orthodox Church, the issue has turned out to be political. The Church's position is different from the Kremlin's, Kurayev said, with the former considering it disadvantageous to seek conflicts with the Georgian Orthodox Church.
At its meeting on Monday, Russia's Synod of Bishops discussed the Russian delegation's participation at the upcoming summit of Orthodox Churches' leaders scheduled for late October. The meeting attendees agree the Russian Orthodox Church will come out with an ultimatum that Russia will participate only if the Estonian Apostolic Orthodox Church does not attend the summit.
"Most churches of the Moscow Patriarchate in Estonia have been taken away from Russia. The situation seems to be absurd, with the expansion being performed by a church which actually does not exist," the Patriarchate's press secretary, Vladimir Vigilyansky, said.
"The Estonian problem is only the surface, while behind the curtains are the issues occurring in Ukraine," Kurayev noted, saying that Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko intends to establish an independent Orthodox Church in the country with the support from the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople.
"Romania is threatening to set up its own eparchy in Ukraine as well. The Patriarchate of Constantinople enjoys support from Greece, which in its turn is supported by Serbia," Kurayev elaborated.
According to him, the Russian Orthodox Church leaders are afraid of yielding their influence in the former CIS countries, not willing to lose the Georgian Orthodox Church, its only ally, which will become an influential voice in future battles with Constantinople.
RBC Daily
Turkey, Azerbaijan worried over Saakashvili's temper
Turkey and Azerbaijan plan to force Tbilisi to accept the idea of the federalization of Georgia.
Analysts say the two countries don't want Georgia to be split, but they do not trust the government of Mikheil Saakashvili and therefore want to strengthen control over strategic communications in Georgia.
On Saturday evening, Azerbaijani news agencies said, quoting a source in the foreign ministry, that Baku would issue Azerbaijani passports to the residents of the Kvemo-Kartli region in Georgia, called Borchaly in Azerbaijan.
After that Azerbaijan would demand that Georgia grant autonomy to the region, the source said, threatening to deploy its troops there in the event of a refusal.
An anonymous source in the Turkish Foreign Ministry said last week that Turkey would demand "security guarantees for the Turkic residents of Georgia." The establishment of a "multilevel federation" will be the only guarantee of Georgia's territorial integrity, the Turkish diplomat said.
Turkey also intends to insist that Georgia "restore the real autonomy" of Adzharia and repatriate all Meskhetian Turks to Georgia and give them special status.
Saakashvili unofficially annulled Adzharia's autonomy in 2004 and has since been forcing Adzharians to register as "Muslim Georgians."
The repatriation of Meskhetian Turks, which the Georgian parliament announced in June 2007, has been postponed for the same reasons. Meskhetians are forced to register as Georgians and to "retake their Georgian surnames," which the majority of them refuse to do.
Alexei Vlasov, head of Moscow State University's information and analysis center studying socio-political processes in the post-Soviet space, said Turkey and Azerbaijan were unlikely to use military force to "convince" Georgia to accept federalization.
They don't want to split Georgia, but they mistrust the Saakashvili government, Vlasov said. Turkey and Azerbaijan have organized leaks to the media to "remind Tbilisi that they have means of influencing the situation."
Adzharia, Kvemo-Kartli and Meskhetia are the transit regions for communications vital to Azerbaijan and Turkey, such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and the Baku-Supsa oil pipelines, as well as the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railroad project.
Before the war in South Ossetia, Azerbaijan and Turkey considered the Saakashvili government as the only guarantor of these communications' safety. Now they see that they need to control Tbilisi, and have decided to use the Georgian autonomies and their loyal diasporas towards this end.
Moskovsky Komsomolets
Victory Avenue in Grozny to bear name of Vladimir Putin
The Chechen authorities have decided to rename Victory Prospekt in Grozny, which commemorated victory in WWII, Putin Prospekt. Neither the Russian government, nor youth and veteran movements are against the decision.
Russia protested fiercely when Estonia decided to move the Bronze Soldier, a monument to Soviet soldiers who perished in WWII, from downtown Tallinn, and public riots shattered the peace in the Estonian capital. But Ramzan Kadyrov's decision to do almost the same has been disregarded almost completely.
The Russian press did not mention the fact that it was Victory Prospekt that was renamed after Kadyrov's "idol," Vladimir Putin. They wrote about Putin's "personality cult" in Chechnya and the super-loyalty of the Chechen president, who began life in politics wearing a tracksuit.
Kadyrov may be too young or have too little education to remember that the Soviet Union lost over 20 million lives in the war against Nazism in 1941-1945, and his subordinates think it would be impolite to tell him the truth. Or do they fear him?
But what if people in other cities of Russia, and not only in Grozny, also remain silent? Is there no one in Russia bold enough to say, "Dear Ramzan, you have acted unwisely, forgetting that Victory Day is a sacred holiday for Russia, which you claim to love so much. Aren't there other streets in Chechen cities and towns that could bear the name of Vladimir Putin?"
But then again, history itself will find a place for Putin.
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