MOSCOW, November 20 (RIA Novosti)
Georgia, Russia may continue bickering in Geneva for ages/ Russia, Britain see more signs of improving relations/ Politkovskaya murder trial held behind closed doors/ Medvedev did not inherit Putin's political clout/ Oil companies urge halt in energy market liberalization/Russia's General Staff vows to catch up with NATO in 11 years/
Kommersant
Georgia, Russia may continue bickering in Geneva for ages
The Geneva talks on security in the Caucasus are set to continue for a long time; the crucial thing, however, is that the international community has recognized the state of affairs in the region, a Russian analyst writes in the business newspaper.
It has not legitimized the outcome of the Caucasus conflict or Russia's actions, but has shown readiness for lengthy and difficult discussions under international auspices.
Boris Makarenko, head of the Center for Political Technologies, writes that the Geneva talks are not unlike a boxing ring where Russia and Georgia will spar with one another, while negotiations on other important issues will continue outside the ring.
This opportunity arose indirectly from the financial crisis, which has shown the international community that it is better not to isolate Russia, but encourage it to unite to overcome the crisis, Makarenko writes.
This explains recent comments and reports about Georgia's unseemly role in starting the conflict and about the actions by Georgian troops in Tskhinvali.
According to the analyst, the western position has become more balanced since August, as evidenced by the EU decision to resume talks on a new partnership and cooperation agreement with Russia and on Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization. Neither seemed even distantly possible in August.
The Geneva talks are not the first or last that may take decades, but this should not prevent the West from developing relations with the countries concerned, Makarenko writes.
The West is promoting relations with Israel, although it has not recognized its sovereignty over the Golan Heights and Eastern Jerusalem, and ties with Pakistan despite the Kashmir problem, and Morocco despite human rights violations in the Morocco-controlled areas of Western Sahara, and Turkey, although it still has not recognized the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
Each of these cases has unique aspects but also quite a few things in common.
However, certain conditions should be observed to prevent an unsettled problem from getting worse and polluting the international atmosphere.
First, the problem of status for the unrecognized negotiating parties should not stop the talks. It is too early in the day for the Georgian problem; opponents believe they should demonstrate their commitment to principles, rather than really discuss the issue.
This may be unavoidable, Makarenko writes, but the main thing is to stop bickering before it is too late and start honest negotiations, making the status problem an "apophasis," that is, raising it by saying it will not be mentioned.
And second, there must be no violence in the conflict zone. This is now the most dangerous aspect of the problem, because Georgians are sorely tempted to prevent a ceasefire because it would formalize its defeat.
Georgia will do its utmost to change the essence and format of the peacekeeping operation, to turn the "thin blue line" of international observers into a full-scale group of international troops that would replace Russian peacekeepers, Makarenko writes.
Vedomosti
Russia, Britain see more signs of improving relations
Foreign investors aren't yet back to the Russian market, but foreign diplomats have started to return.
British Secretary of State for Business Peter Mandelson visited Moscow in late October, the first visit by a high-ranking British official in the past 18 months.
Mandelson is referred to as Britain's key political broker, so he must have been sent to Moscow to try and pull Russian-British relations from the deadlock they have been in for two years since the Litvinenko case.
Mandelson's former successful contacts with Igor Shuvalov and Anatoly Chubais during his services as EU trade commissioner have certainly helped, too.
"I think there's a real willingness to re-engage, to turn the page and start a new chapter in our relationship," Mandelson said before leaving.
Although he didn't say Britain would call off its demands for the extradition of Andrei Lugovoi, a British police suspect in the poisoning former Russian security agent Alexander Litvinenko, he did sound optimistic.
Another sign of the "thawing" relations is the EU's willingness to renew security and trade negotiations with Russia, suspended 10 weeks ago.
[Georgian President Mikheil] Saakashvili is clearly no longer a top priority for Europe.
Georgia's disputed borders, more evidence of its aggression against South Ossetia last August, as well as the political crisis in Ukraine are the reasons why European politicians will now see these two countries' quick accession to NATO as inadvisable and even dangerous.
NATO foreign ministers will most probably postpone Ukraine and Georgia's accession hearing when they meet in Budapest in December.
The fact that the U.S. presidency has been won by Barack Obama has also improved Russia's chances of emerging from the current political "freeze." Even Iran's leader sent a telegram congratulating Obama.
On the other hand, Obama's personal experience of dealing with Russia was not pleasant or encouraging, as in August 2005 he was detained at Perm airport when he was a senator, and local authorities tried to search his plane in violation of international law. They have certainly never heard the proverb about never offending a girl because you don't know whom she will marry.
President Dmitry Medvedev threatened to deploy missiles in Kaliningrad if the United States did not drop its plan to install missile bases in Central Europe. He issued the threat at a time when it would have been better if Russia had avoided flexing its muscles and giving tidbits to the new U.S. administration's hawks, especially Vice President-elect Joe Biden.
The financial crisis has taken the global heat off Russia for a while. International efforts are being pooled into anti-crisis measures. The 2009 agenda will be packed with G20 meetings instead of focusing on traditional problems that foreign and defense ministers are obsessed with, which will give Russia a chance to play a constructive role in a common cause.
Vremya Novostei, Vedomosti, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Moskovsky Komsomolets
Politkovskaya murder trial held behind closed doors
On Wednesday, the Moscow District Military Court ruled to ban journalists from the trial of three men accused of involvement in the slaying of investigative journalist Anna Politkovskaya, who was shot dead in the elevator of her apartment building on October 7, 2006.
The court justified its decision by the fact that the jury had refused to hear the case in the presence of journalists. Society is once again left wondering whether or not the investigation was fair and unbiased.
Politkovskaya was known for her articles about the alleged crimes of federal forces in Chechnya and her sharp criticism of then Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov.
Under Russian legislation, cases involving minors, sexual crimes and the divulging of state secrets can be tried behind closed doors. This provision also applies to cases when the safety of defendants, plaintiffs and jurors is threatened.
None of the jurors who were sworn in Tuesday and who could have declined to take part in the trial said anything about being threatened.
In the last few years, virtually all sensational cases, including the abortive attempt on the life of Anatoly Chubais, CEO of utility giant RAO UES, in March 2005, the murder of Paul Khlebnikov, editor of the Russian-language version of Forbes magazine, in July 2004 and deputy Central Bank chairman Andrei Kozlov in September 2006 and the derailing of the Moscow-Grozny train in June 2005 have been tried behind closed doors.
The same decision was made in the case of Alexei Pichugin, the chief security official at the former Russian oil giant Yukos, who was sentenced by a Moscow court in August 2006 to serve 24 years in prison for conspiracy in several murders.
The courts in question claimed that the relevant case files contained classified information on investigatory proceedings and explained their decisions to hold closed trials by the need to protect defendants, plaintiffs and jurors from pressure.
But it always turned out that the cases were not classified, and that nothing terrible happened to those involved in the trials. It was the prosecutors, rather than defense attorneys, who demanded closed trials because they did not want the public to discuss various discrepancies which arose in most of the cases.
Owing to these discrepancies, the jury has cleared the defendants more than once.
However, the courts are taking advantage of the current Criminal Proceedings Code that stipulates additional legal grounds for conducting trials behind closed doors, said Mikhail Fedotov, secretary of the Union of Russian Journalists.
Fedotov said a presumption in favor of open trials was giving way to closed trials, that it was becoming possible to conceal the blunders of investigators and prosecutors, and that public control over the judicial system was also being restricted.
Gazeta.ru
Medvedev did not inherit Putin's political clout
The very first public opinion poll, held after the announcement that terms of office for the president and parliament were to be extended, has shown that the majority of people are in favor of the head of state staying in office longer than is laid down in the Constitution. But, poll organizers say, the Russians see only Vladimir Putin as president.
The poll was conducted on November 14-17 and involved 1,587 respondents. Its results, supplied by the Levada Center to Gazeta.ru, will be published on Thursday.
Some 60% of respondents approved extending presidential powers from four to six years, 26% were against, and 14% did not know.
In 2002, 48% of voters interviewed by the Levada Center were in favor of extending the presidential term of office to seven years. Two years later, the percentage was down to 46%, and a year later, to 41%. The trend bucked when Vladimir Putin was practically on his way out: in October 2007, the yes group increased to 55%.
Sociologists say Russians see the increased term as a chance for Putin and this is why more have come out in favor of changing the Constitution. "The formal handover of power from Putin to Medvedev has changed nothing," said Alexei Levinson, head of socio-cultural research at the Levada Center. Russians still believe that the country is run by Putin, who swapped his presidential chair for the prime minister's: more than half of respondents are positive that "power belongs to the prime minister or to Putin and Medvedev together."
"No symbolic clout has passed from Putin to Medvedev, according to our observations," Levinson said. "In his prime minister's capacity, Putin continues to keep his 'presidential rating', although all analysts used to say before 2008 that the head of government was a technical post, almost like that of a street cleaner, and no one could keep his popularity by occupying it long."
"The entire Putin's era was a real drama for public opinion," Levinson said. "For most Russians, the intact Constitution was a guarantee of stability and a sign of the state's respectability. At the same time, as many voters spoke of their readiness to allow Putin seek a third term and breach the existing Constitution. Public opinion was practically deadlocked, and the option offered by Putin - a formal swap of posts - suited everyone."
According to the pollster, in his state of the nation address "Medvedev himself dropped the hint that the extension of powers was not for him, not at least for his first presidential term." "If the president had said in no uncertain way that he would seek a second, preferably a six-year, term, then Russians would not have been so supportive of the idea," Levinson said.
Vedomosti
Oil companies urge halt in energy market liberalization
Oil companies have added to their demands for tax cuts from the government a request for a halt in plans to liberalize the electricity market until the crisis is over.
The decision to increase the percentage of electricity sold at market prices should be put on hold for a year, employees at two of the top five oil companies told the newspaper.
News agencies cite informed sources as saying that oil companies "have drafted a letter to the government" asking it "to halt the liberalization of the electricity market."
The electricity market is due to be fully liberalized by 2011. At present, 25% of electricity is sold at market prices and the rest at fixed prices. The balance should change to 30:70 in January 2009 and 50:50 in July 2009.
Oil companies argue that liberalization should be postponed because spending on electricity could grow dramatically. Market prices for electricity are currently around 50% higher than the fixed prices, said an employee of an oil company.
In October, the ceiling for market prices of electricity sold to basic consumers in Siberia's Tyumen Region and Khanty-Mansi and Yamal-Nenets autonomous areas was almost 50% above the fixed prices, 160.95 kopecks per 1 KWh against 108.37 kopecks, according to the Tyumen electricity sales company.
The crisis and the dramatic fall of global oil prices highlight the need to cut spending, while electricity costs in exploration and production make up between 25% and 40% of total costs, said a manager of another oil company.
Dmitry Ponomarev, head of the NGO Market Council uniting Russia's largest energy producers and consumers, said this is an unwise proposal, because electricity producers also have problems in raising funds and need to implement their investment commitments. If they cut electricity production, oil companies would complain, he said.
Postponing liberalization will not necessarily control prices, an official at the Economic Development Ministry said. Prices on the free market are responsive to changes in demand. When demand dropped in mid-November, the average weighted price fell to 560 rubles per 1 MWh from 968 rubles in the European part of Russia, and to 490 rubles from 674 rubles in Siberia, he said.
Postponing electricity liberalization may also affect some oil companies. In particular, Russia's largest private crude producer LUKoil paid as much as $3 billion for a controlling stake in territorial generating company TGK-8.
The sides should find a compromise to compensate for investment in power generation and at the same time continue their business development, said a source with close ties to the management of an oil producer.
RBC Daily
Russia's General Staff vows to catch up with NATO in 11 years
Generals are promising to rearm Russia's Armed Forces entirely by 2020. General Nikolai Makarov, chief of the General Staff, said 30% of the army would be equipped with cutting edge weapons and hardware in three to five years, and 80%-100% by 2018-2020.
Experts argue that the military official's forecast is too optimistic and unrealistic.
Top officials were alerted to the army's technological backwardness only after the five-day war in South Ossetia in the summer. The campaign revealed a mass of weak points, including a lack of unmanned reconnaissance aircraft and night vision devices, as well as obsolete communication systems.
Therefore, the government decided to re-equip the armed forces despite the tight financial situation. They decided against cutting state defense orders and instead to support the defense industry financially. Admittedly, the cash injection has yet to reach the military equipment makers, as it has got stuck with banks. But the government is determined to handle the problem as soon as possible.
"In the next three to five years, cutting edge military equipment and weapons will account for 30% of the total, and grow to 80%-100% by 2018-2020," General Makarov said.
In rich economies, the usual ratio between new and out-of-date military equipment is 80 to 20. In the Russian army, this ratio is the opposite.
"The forecast cited by the chief of the General Staff is very optimistic, and is based on the potential funds available," Pavel Zolotarev, president of the Foundation in Support of the Military Reform, told RBC Daily.
"However, even if we forget the financial crisis, which is bound to change some of the plans, we should bear in mind the current production capability of the defense industry. The situation is truly disastrous here, as the old design bureau staff is lost and the young engineers aren't experienced enough yet.
"And, even if we succeed in replacing the old tanks, APCs and artillery hardware with newer models, that won't mean a total re-equipment of the armed forces. The emphasis should be on modern control systems, tracking and reconnaissance devices, and information systems rather than on combat equipment," he explained.
Russia's army hasn't had any night vision anti-eavesdropping devices, day and night flying helicopters or unmanned aircraft since the first Chechen campaign. These issues have not been decided over the past 14 years, added Igor Korotchenko, a member of the Defense Ministry's Public Council.
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