MOSCOW, December 11 (RIA Novosti)
President Yushchenko to fight "hand of Moscow"/ Minister says no mass layoffs in Russia/ UAC offers Rosavia Tu-204 instead of Boeing or Airbus /Daimler still interested in KamAZ stake despite crisis
Gazeta.ru
President Yushchenko to fight "hand of Moscow"
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has demanded that all Russian passport holders be deprived of Ukrainian citizenship.
Analysts say Yushchenko fears an Abkhazian-style scenario, but that his plans are impracticable.
Heated discussions on the dual citizenship issue flared up in Ukraine after the August 2008 Russian-Georgian conflict over the self-proclaimed South Ossetia Republic.
Kiev and the European Union feared that Moscow was trying to seize the Crimean Peninsula together with South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Since 2000, the populations of both breakaway Georgian provinces have received Russian passports.
Vladimir Fesenko, director of the Kiev-based Penta Center for Applied Political Studies, said Ukrainian analysts had merely discussed the government's failure to enforce constitutional rules banning dual citizenship before the August conflict, and that "an objective and subjective hysteria" had started after the war.
Fesenko said Yushchenko's reaction was largely emotional.
"This problem has been exaggerated. There are few people with dual citizenship in the Crimea," Fesenko told the paper.
"However, there are thousands, rather than hundreds of thousands, of people with dual citizenship in the Chernovtsy Region where Ukrainians receive Romanian passports and in the Trans-Carpathian Region where Hungarian passports are being issued to those wishing to enter the EU," Fesenko said.
Alexei Vlasov, director of Moscow State University's Center for Post-Soviet Studies, said this was a political declaration because Yushchenko has no effective instruments for checking whether his fellow Ukrainians have "alien" passports.
He said Yushchenko's initiative was similar to that being examined by the Russian parliament.
Since summer, the State Duma and the Federation Council, the lower and upper houses of parliament, have been discussing the possibility of issuing special cards to ethnic Russians abroad. Their holders would be able to obtain benefits in Russia.
Moscow does not conceal the fact that such cards will be mostly issued to ethnic Russians in Ukraine.
Vedomosti
Minister says no mass layoffs in Russia
There will be no mass layoffs in Russia, the health and social development minister said. Tatyana Golikova told the daily that less than 10% of workers would be dismissed because of the financial crisis.
She said mass layoffs, although improbable, might still occur in the steel and engineering industries.
"There is no upsurge in layoffs," Golikova told the newspaper. "Less than 10% of employees will be dismissed because of the crisis."
According to the minister, planned and mass layoffs have been monitored weekly since October 1, and large dismissals in major sectors are not planned this year. At least, there have been no official notifications of such a possibility, Golikova said.
"We see the intertwining of two trends, the usual redundancy dismissals as part of company reorganization, and layoffs provoked by the global financial crisis," she said.
At the same time, the Health and Social Development Ministry has submitted to the government the proposals that unemployment benefits be increased. It has been decided to raise them to 4,900 rubles ($176) on January 1 from the planned 3,400 rubles.
"Mass dismissals, if they occur, will mostly affect the steel and engineering industries, where the average monthly pay is relatively high," Golikova said. "We are especially worried about the possibility of layoffs at strategic companies. An unemployment benefit of 4,900 rubles is only 30% of the average pay in Russia in August. This is good money, but not the money we can stint."
The minister warned against dramatizing the situation, but admitted that some companies planned to lower salaries and transfer part of their employees to a shorter working week.
Kommersant
UAC offers Rosavia Tu-204 instead of Boeing or Airbus
The United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) is trying to persuade Russian Technology corporation to purchase up to 50 Tu-204-100/300 airliners instead of Boeing 737s or Airbus A320s during the next five years for Rosavia, an air carrier being created by the state corporation and the Moscow government. If the sides agree, the UAC will get a record contract in Russian civil aircraft history of almost $2 billion.
"The UAC is able to deliver up to 10 Tu-204s per year," said a source close to the corporation. According to the source, the idea is to lease the planes for three to seven years, and later to replace them with more advanced models.
"Such an option would suit both the UAC and probably Russian Technology. This would make it possible for the UAC to increase its production of Tu-204s and for Russian Technology to keep its subsidiaries in business by supplying parts for the plane," said a Russian Technology spokesman.
Russian Technology includes about 30 UAC-related plants.
An industry source calculated that the contract being discussed with Russian Technology could be worth up to $2 billion. "The catalogue price of every plane is $40 million, but with a contract of that size and in view of the current market situation, the aircraft could be sold for $36-38 million," the source said. The failure of talks would, in his view, mean the suspension of Tu-204 production in 2010.
In mid-November, Vitaly Vantsov, the head of Rosavia, disclosed plans to buy up to a hundred Boeing 737s or Airbus A320s. He said the ultimate decision would be made before December 20. Yesterday he declined to comment.
"The Tu-204-SM is competitive with the Western brands," believes Oleg Panteleyev, the head of analysis at the Aviaport agency. "Besides, Boeing and Airbus are booked up for the next four years, even allowing for possible cancellations by airlines due to the financial crisis."
Vremya Novostei, Kommersant
Daimler still interested in KamAZ stake despite crisis
Daimler AG's truck unit is trying to cash in on the global crisis and buy into KamAZ, Russia's leading truck maker with a market share of about 30%.
Germany's anti-trust authority, the Federal Cartel Office, said Daimler had notified it of its plan to buy a 10% stake in the Russian company. However, analysts say the deal will only go through if Daimler is given an iron-clad option to increase the stake.
Sergei Chemezov, head of the Russian Technology state corporation and chairman of the KamAZ board, said in late November that Daimler could opt for a smaller stake of 10% in the truck maker, instead of the previously planned 42%.
KamAZ is currently controlled by its general director, Sergei Kogogin, and a group of financial investors led by the Troika Dialog brokerage. Their consolidated stake is 54.4%. The government stake of 34% has been assigned to Russian Technology.
The deal, which was due to be completed in October 2008, was valued at $2 billion. Daimler was half-expected to pull out of it because of the global crisis, but analysts insisted that the Germans were far too interested to gain a foothold in KamAZ, even despite the stock market meltdown.
The size of the deal could even exceed the market value of the assets, according to some estimates, but certainly lower than before. Ilya Makarov of UBS said Daimler could pay $100-$150 million for the stake, or $1.5-$2 per share.
Mikhail Pak, an analyst with the Metropol investment company said Daimler's supervisory board would certainly vote in favor of the KamAZ deal. Daimler is equally interested in the Russian company's production facilities and dealership chain. They will be keen to close the deal in late 2008 or early 2009, he added.
Ivan Bonchev, auto industry expert at Ernst & Young, said Daimler should only agree to the deal if it is given a solid option to augment its stake later, because such a small stake would not be a very promising acquisition. If Daimler plans to develop a greenfield operation in Russia with capacity to match that of the existing KamAZ plant, the project can cost it at least $500 million, Bonchev added.
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