MOSCOW, January 11 (RIA Novosti)
Russia wages gas war in first days of 2009 / Europe can end Moscow-Kiev gas row / Toyota Motor Corporation to delay construction of St. Petersburg plant / Russian oligarchs' assets melting like snow in March /
Moskovsky Komsomolets, Vedomosti, Kommersant
Russia wages gas war in first days of 2009
The new year in Russia has begun with yet another gas war, only it went farther this time, cutting off both Ukraine's supplies and exports to Europe across Ukraine's territory.
The outcome of the move is dramatic: Ukraine is deprived of the natural gas it needs, while Russia has lost an important export channel. Both are rapidly losing their international reputations, because Europe is freezing and won't bother figuring out exactly whose fault it is.
The situation is similar in some ways to last summer's confrontation over South Ossetia, according to the Moskovsky Komsomolets daily. The government of Russia's former "brother nation" is blaming everything on Russia.
The global mass media don't bother studying the longstanding and tangled commercial problems between Gazprom and Ukraine. They simply blame Russia again, automatically supporting the weaker party.
Most Western media say that Russia is punishing Ukraine for supporting Georgia and for its plans to join NATO and the EU, the Vedomosti business daily observed.
Gleb Pavlovsky, head of the Effective Policy Foundation think tank, said Europe doesn't want to "go into the subtleties of our policy."
Moscow is underestimating Europe's sincere conviction that Ukraine is Russia's zone of influence. "If that is so, why the hell are we freezing?!" they say. Gazprom must have expected its European partners to control gas transit through Ukraine, but that would mean that Ukraine would move into Europe's zone of influence - something [President Viktor] Yushchenko badly wants. Just like Somali pirates cannot help attacking ships, Ukraine can't help stealing gas. Which means Russia will be the one to blame in any case, said a political analyst close to the Kremlin.
This gas crisis is different because Prime Minister Vladimir Putin was openly involved for the first time. The conflict has led to a dramatic change in the European Union's layout. Nearly all of its members adopted a consolidated stance on the issue. Therefore, Russia's chances of playing on controversy between the different EU members while implementing its energy policy there have dropped significantly.
Vedomosti
Europe can end Moscow-Kiev gas row
The New Year's festivities are accompanied by a gas conflict between Russia and Ukraine for a fourth year in a row, a sort of a new tradition. But this time around, it is threatening to grow into an ongoing conflict unless maybe Europe finds an alternative to Russian gas.
In fact all the parties concerned seem to benefit from the conflict politically.
With December's protests of Russian car-owners, miners, pensioners and even military servicemen, the government was happy to distract the public from domestic issues to some external target.
Ukraine, which has obviously gone out of hand and beyond all bounds shamelessly stealing gas instead of paying, is a natural and perfect target to siphon off the accumulated public indignation and anxiety.
TV channels showed no news of the falling ruble, surging food prices, transport or utilities fares, layoffs or unemployment in December. Holiday-season music and entertainment were only interrupted by breaking reports on European cities freezing because of Ukraine's outrageous actions.
The Ukrainian government is also cashing in on the conflict. The next presidential election is only a year ahead. All hopefuls benefit from a conflict with Gazprom, regardless of their political views or election platforms.
Isn't spouting righteous indignation at Moscow's malice better than explaining to their own people while effective inflation is above 20%, the hryvna has dropped to half its value or why hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have lost their jobs?
The gas conflict is a perfect means of siphoning off popular discontent and a chance for the leaders to position themselves as adamant patriots, with national independence a strong priority, more important than compromising with the Russian gas monopoly.
Even Gazprom is better off with the conflict, because the idea to gain control of the gas link to Europe running across Ukraine no longer seems unfeasible, with the elections so near and with the general confusion in the country - an ideal time for bargaining.
Incidentally, the last time Gazprom cut off Ukraine's gas was three years ago. The monopoly gained access to Ukraine's gas market then.
Kommersant
Toyota Motor Corporation to delay construction of St. Petersburg plant
The Japanese automotive giant Toyota Motor Corporation is stopping construction of the second stage of its St. Petersburg plant in north-western Russia due to plunging car sales.
Toyota is the third Japanese carmaker to reconsider its investment plans in Russia. In late 2008, Suzuki and Isuzu also decided to mothball construction of local automotive plants.
Toyota Motor Manufacturing Russia is the first St. Petersburg automotive plant built under the municipal automobile cluster program and the second after the Ford Motor Company's plant in Vsevolozhsk in the Leningrad Region.
The project has received five billion rubles ($170 million) worth of investment since 2005.
Although Toyota Motor Manufacturing Russia can annually manufacture 20,000 Toyota Camry vehicles, only 1,500 cars rolled off the assembly line last year. Previously, the company had announced plans to complete the plant's second stage by 2010, to mass-produce low-budget cars and to expand annual output to 200,000-300,000 vehicles.
Igor Krayevsky, an analyst with the Antanta Pioglobal Investment Group, said people previously had to wait 12 months for low-budget cars, and that such vehicles were now in free supply. He also said that demand for expensive cars had plunged by an average of 30%. "Companies which had planned their sales for the upcoming year, are unable to predict the next month's results," Krayevsky told the paper.
Foreign carmakers are tackling this problem in line with different methods. Germany's Volkswagen, which wanted to expand production at its plant in Kaluga, a city 170 km (100 miles) south-west of Moscow, scrapped such plans in late 2008 but decided to assemble a new car model in Kaluga.
Japanese automotive giants are opting for the most drastic measures. Due to reduced car demand, Suzuki is delaying construction of its St. Petersburg plant that was to have been commissioned in late 2009.
In mid-December, Suzuki said it had decided to scrap a joint truck-production project involving Russia's Sollers carmaker due to reduced vehicle demand and a stronger yen.
Vedomosti
Russian oligarchs' assets melting like snow in March
Interros owner Vladimir Potanin has had to provide further cover for the VTB loan he received against an 18% stake in Norilsk Nickel. The state bank received almost 20% of Rosbank shares.
Rosbank announced the changing of the owner of its 19.99% stock on December 30. The package came to VTB from Pharanco Holdings Co Ltd. (which used to hold 37.307%). The beneficiary of the Cyprus company is Potanin, said sources close to Rosbank, and a businessman well-acquainted with him.
A source close to VTB and a staff member of the company that is one of the parties to the deal say that Rosbank securities provided an additional cover for the loan which Potanin took from the state bank as early as the first half of 2008. The loan amounted to $3 billion and its collateral was 18% in Norilsk Nickel.
A source close to Norilsk says that the initial collateral was 9% in Norilsk (costing $5 billion). But following depreciation of the securities (which have fallen fivefold since the summer), the collateral fell short of its value, said the source close to Norilsk. At the end of the fall, Potanin agreed to increase the collaterized Norilsk package to 18%, said a source of Vedomosti. Since that did not prove enough, Rosbank shares were added, the source acquainted with the businessman said.
But this again may prove short, because the cover will be below the loan all the same. The 18% stake in Norilsk Nickel traded at $2.2 billion on the RTS, and 19.99% of Rosbank, at $232 million, judging by the latest deal on the RTS (which was done in October). Mark Rubinshtein, a Metropol analyst, estimates the bank's 20% at $575 million.
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