Potential consequences of sanctions against Georgia

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MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti military commentator Ilya Kramnik) - Russia has imposed sanctions against Georgia. President Dmitry Medvedev signed a decree banning supplies of military hardware and dual-purpose equipment to that country.

The president also instructed his subordinates to draft measures to stop or restrict military-technical cooperation with the countries that are supplying Georgia with Soviet or Russian weapons. This deprives Georgia de jure of a possibility to buy military equipment in Russia. Decisions on cooperation with third countries will be made depending on their response to the new rules of the game.

This step directly affects Russia's relations with a number of East European and post-Soviet countries that supplied the Mikheil Saakashvili regime with arms and combat equipment. However, some experts believe that cessation of military-technical cooperation may do serious damage to Russia's own defense capability. This primarily concerns Russia's cooperation with Ukraine. The Russian armed forces are using Ukrainian military equipment on a large scale.

Some media are already warning that Ukraine may stop cooperation with Russia and introduce similar sanctions. However, considering Ukraine's economic situation and a sharp decline in industrial production, its leaders are not likely to forego revenues from these exports.

Russia would survive lack of cooperation with Ukraine but for Ukraine it would be a disaster. There is not a single weapon in the Ukrainian armed forces that does not have Russian spare parts. Most Ukrainian arms have been fully produced in Russia. Their fast replacement with Western parts is impossible. No country will supply so much military hardware for free.

Strange as it may seem, but lack of cooperation with Russia will not affect Georgia as much. Its statehood is artificial, and much will depend on whether its Western allies would like to see Georgia with a combat-effective army. If they decide to use Georgia's tiny army in its future games in the Caucasus, it will not be difficult to supply it with arms.

Russia won't lose or gain much with the imposition of sanctions. However, it should try to reduce the dependence of its military-industrial complex on foreign exports, particularly from politically unreliable countries. Russian leaders have repeatedly emphasized the need to make it as self-sufficient as possible.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

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