MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti military commentator Ilya Kramnik) – Twenty years ago, on February 15, 1989 the Soviet Union withdrew its troops from Afghanistan. The world hoped that this would bring peace to the country, but this hope did not materialize.
Now the U.S.-led NATO coalition is conducting its operation in Afghanistan. Moreover, the United States has already announced its intention to increase the strength of troops there to 52,000 servicemen.
In the Soviet era, Moscow understood that the inability to strike at the enemy’s supply bases and training camps made a simple buildup of strength pointless. The killed Afghan guerrillas were replaced with new ones. Whole groups of them came from Pakistan, carrying American, Chinese, and Soviet weapons (received from some of the Soviet former allies), and everything started all over again.
What is happening now is pretty much the same. The United States is fighting with guerrillas who are supported from abroad, by Iran and Pakistan. It cannot suppress their foreign bases. Today, it is impossible to wage war against Pakistan and Iran.
A build-up of U.S. troops in Afghanistan will only produce more losses. After U.S. withdrawal, Afghanistan will quickly fall under the power of the Taliban once again.
Today, the United States is finding it increasingly difficult to supply troops in Afghanistan. It is best to do this from the north, where Russia has influence. Recently, Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair bluntly accused Russia of ousting the United States from the Manas air base in Kyrgyzstan. He said he was disappointed with Russia’s role at the talks on this base. He got the impression that Russia was not being helpful, although generally believed that the U.S. role and anti-terrorist struggle in Afghanistan met its interests, because violent Sunnite extremists had made inroads into its southern regions.
At the same time, on the day Blair made this statement, Russian and American delegations seriously discussed the transit of civilian cargoes to Afghanistan through Russian territory. Russia gave certain commitments on this score. What does this all mean?
Moscow is countering Washington’s attempts to increase influence in the former Soviet republics without preventing the U.S. operation in Afghanistan for a whole number of reasons. One of the main reasons is that failure in Afghanistan could make Washington more pliable on a number of key issues of influence in Asia. However, if the United States and its allies pull their troops out of Afghanistan, Russia will again have to protect its Central Asian allies against extremist raids from Afghan territory.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
