MOSCOW, March 18 (RIA Novosti)
Obama could visit Russia in July / Russia, Belarus haggle over recognition of S. Ossetia and Abkhazia / Start of military reform moved because of crisis / ArcelorMittal closes Russian mines
Kommersant
Obama could visit Russia in July
Washington should stop lecturing Moscow on human rights and should instead "work to bring Russia into the World Trade Organization," admit that Russia has legitimate interests in the post-Soviet countries, and "accept that neither Ukraine nor Georgia is ready for NATO membership."
These recommendations are provided in a report, "The Right Direction for U.S. Policy toward Russia", published by the Bipartisan Commission on U.S. Policy toward Russia, set up on the initiative of President Barack Obama.
Former U.S. Secretary of State James Baker is expected in Moscow soon for preparations for President Obama's first Russian visit, scheduled for July.
Last Tuesday, members of the Bipartisan Commission - former Senators Chuck Hagel and Gary Hart and Lt. Gen. Brent Scowcroft (Ret.), national security adviser of President George Bush Sr. - were in the Kremlin to inform President Dmitry Medvedev about the upcoming report on future relations with Russia, which they had prepared on Obama's instructions.
According to the newspaper, the Kremlin welcomed the report. In fact, it represents possibly the most positive U.S. view of Russia since the end of the Cold War.
The authors of the report recommend intensified efforts to develop a more constructive relationship with Russia, in order to advance vital American interests, and say that the previous administrations did not understand Russia and used their own logic in place of the Russian logic.
"We must also significantly improve our understanding of Russian interests as Russians themselves define them," the report says.
The recommendations of the Commission, co-chaired by Hagel and Hart, will probably be at the top of the Obama-Medvedev agenda during their meeting in London at the G20 summit. However, a source with ties in the Russian Foreign Ministry said that meeting would not be enough to demonstrate a true thaw in Russian-U.S. relations. This is why the sides are considering Obama's visit to Russia.
Of the two possible dates, May and July, the latter now seems preferable.
The Commission on U.S. Policy toward Russia is a joint project of The Nixon Center and Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.
Vedomosti
Russia, Belarus haggle over recognition of S. Ossetia and Abkhazia
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will arrive in Moscow today and meet with President Dmitry Medvedev on Thursday, the Kremlin press office announced.
The two presidents will discuss the 100-billion ruble loan Belarus is requesting from Moscow, as well as the possibility of recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the two former Georgian republics, as independent states, a source close to the Belarusian president's staff said. A source in the Kremlin executive office also said he expected a discussion of the loan.
Belarus, which had already taken a $2 billion Russian loan, asked for a ruble loan last year. After a negotiation on February 3, Medvedev issued instructions to the Finance Ministry and Central Bank to explore the possibility in two weeks. The issue is being handled by the Bank of Russia, a source in the ministry said when the allocated time expired.
But the regulator declined to comment when asked by Vedomosti. Considering the depreciation of the ruble, the amount discussed could be higher than 100 billion, Belarusian First Deputy Prime Minister Vladimir Semashko said.
The Belarusian parliament's house of representatives planned to consider the two republics' independence issue on April 2, Deputy Speaker Valery Ivanov said in late January. However, a staffer in the Belarusian parliament said they would not consider the issue on April 2.
Parliament's press office said an official agenda was not drawn up yet. The lawmakers are more likely to set up a commission to study the situation in the two republics, a source close to Lukashenko's staff said.
Moscow has not proposed any good reason why Minsk should recognize the two republics in a hurry, said Belarusian political analyst Sergei Musiyenko.
Europe has also advanced its requirements to Belarus with regard to the issue, said Nikolai Cherginets, a commission head in the Russia-Belarus Union parliament.
Czech Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg, whose country holds the EU presidency, said on February 25 that if Belarus recognized the two Georgian republics' independence, it wouldn't be included in the Eastern Partnership program, and consequently wouldn't be entitled to financial assistance under that program.
RBC Daily, Gazeta.ru
Start of military reform moved because of crisis
Re-equipment of the Russian army will begin in 2011, President Dmitry Medvedev said at the Defense Ministry board meeting on Tuesday. Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov added that 70% of the army would be fitted out with the latest weapons and equipment by 2020.
Analysts point out, however, that similar commitments have been made in the past decade but the army never saw any new equipment. They are convinced that the military reform timeframe has been adjusted to coincide with the end of the global economic crisis, as it would be hard to embark on a large-scale re-equipment drive earlier.
The minister said new models will account for 30% of the Russian army's equipment by 2015, and for 70% by 2020. Similar statements have been made earlier. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin promised in mid-January to allocate about 4 trillion rubles for the acquisition of military equipment in 2009 through 2011.
However, with the economic crisis raging, the government rather sees the national defense industry as a source of foreign-currency revenues, exporting the bulk of its products.
In fact, political and military leaders run no risks making empty promises because no one has the slightest idea what might happen in Russia and the world before 2020.
"All the statements pronounced by the defense minister and the commander-in-chief were targeted at domestic audiences," said Anatoly Tsyganok, head of the Moscow-based Military Forecast Center think tank. "They are indicating to Russians that they never forget about defense for an instant, even in the face of the crisis."
"What do they mean by new weapons? The recent acquisitions mostly involved Russian-made equipment," said Alexander Khramchikhin, head of research at the Institute of Political and Military Analysis. "They might as well buy 100% of such new equipment and write off the old weapons, but this won't make the army more effective."
Vitaly Tsymbal, a military analyst with the Institute of the Economy in Transition, said the announced goals could also be met by reducing the armed forces. "If the army is cut to 1 million or less, a higher portion of units will have new equipment," he explained.
Vedomosti, Kommersant
ArcelorMittal closes Russian mines
The world's largest steelmaker, ArcelorMittal, intends to close two of the three coalmines it bought last year from Russia's Severstal for $720 million.
Yury Kaufman, chairman of the Federation of Trade Unions of the Kuznetsk coal basin, or Kuzbass, said ArcelorMittal planned to close the Pervomaiskaya and Anzherskoye mines. He did not specify the terms of closing the mines, which employ 3,200 people.
ArcelorMittal refused to comment.
Dmitry Smolin, an analyst at the Uralsib financial corporation, said the decision was logical because the prime cost of coal production at the mines is $100 per metric ton whereas the average for the sector is $20-$40.
Alexander Pukhayev, an analyst at VTB Capital, said coal could be bought for $60 per metric ton in Russia.
The acquisition of the assets seemed logical in early 2008, when coal prices were growing. Coking coal cost as much as $100 per metric ton in early 2008 and $250 in the summer.
Sergei Krivokhizhin, an analyst with Alfa Bank, said the prime cost of coal mined in the Kemerovo Region exceeded $100 per metric ton in 2008, while the prime cost at Mechel's coalmines was some $30 and at Raspadskaya just $18 per metric ton.
Nikolai Sosnovsky of Uralsib said ArcelorMittal had no steel assets in Russia and bought the coalmines for supplies to Ukraine and partially Europe. Given the transportation fees, the cost of coal supplied to Ukraine exceeds $120 per metric ton, while locally produced coal costs $98.
"It would be economically unwise for ArcelorMittal to keep these mines working, as it is cheaper to buy coal on the market," Krivokhizhin said.
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