However, the situation on the Russian loan market and on foreign markets, where the demand for Russian commodities is unlikely to be revitalized soon, shows that growth is unlikely to resume soon.
Misleading figures
The data on industrial production in the 1st quarter, provided by the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), can be interpreted in different ways. On the one hand, production continues to slump. It fell 14.3% compared to January-March 2008 and 14.6% compared to the fourth quarter of 2008.
The fall was 16% in January, 13.3% in February and 13.7% in March.
Some analysts say we have not reached the bottom yet, and that the country will have a second wave of the crisis.
However, some indicators show that we may have reached the bottom. Changes in the industrial production index are looking better from month to month: The index grew 6.4% in February and 11% in March month on month.
"We have reached the bottom and are lying there," said Yevsei Gurvich, head of the Expert Economic Group independent think tank. "We will lie at the bottom in April and then we'll start growing, although very slowly at first."
According to Igor Ulyanov, deputy head of Rosstat, the Russian economy could be said to have avoided a catastrophic scenario - unless it takes a new plunge within the next two months.
Its subsequent development will depend on the global markets, above all oil prices, and on the situation in the Russian banking sector. The latter implies the industries' access to loans.
Developed economies will not help
The situation in the world looks quite optimistic, with oil prices hovering at $50 per barrel for nearly three months.
However, analysts at the FBK, the leading accounting and business advisory services company in Russia, say that the struggle against the crisis is not going well, despite the general acclaim for the anti-crisis agreements reached at the G20 summit in London in early April.
Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin also said that recession in the United States would last from 16 to 18 months and that economic rehabilitation would take several years.
Experts at the International Monetary Fund agree that the current atypical recession will last 18 months at the least.
In this case, there will be no external reasons for growth in Russia soon. As for oil prices, many analysts said in early 2009 that their growth was due to political manipulation by players in the West and the East, and predicted that they would stall at $55 per barrel.
There were no objective economic reasons for the growth of oil prices. Oil was significantly overvalued before the crisis. In the past three or four years, the oil demand grew 3% annually, whereas oil prices soared by 47%-48%. Their growth was driven by a speculative boom, which turned oil futures into an alternative currency.
In the next few years, oil prices will largely depend on objective economic factors, primarily industrial demand, which is so far very low because of a recession.
Boris Kagarlitsky, director of the Institute of Globalization and Social Movements, who was one of the first to predict a plunge in oil prices, now says that the global industries will resume growth only when the price of oil plunges to its production cost. According to him, it may cost $12-$15 in 2010.
Second wave
There are also few internal prerequisites for economic growth in Russia. The consumer demand was relatively high in late 2008 and early 2009 because many Russians decided to invest in durables such as automobiles, home electronics and the like.
But the optimization in the companies, including layoffs and wage cuts, will inevitably slash the consumer demand. This may happen in late spring of 2009, delivering a heavy blow at those players whose goods and services will not be in demand, and provoking a second wave of layoffs.
At the same time, Russia has so far not advanced much in creating enterprises whose output will replace imported goods. This cannot be done quickly, as it takes six to 18 months to buy and assemble equipment.
But this is not the only reason. The sky-high interest rates prevent businesses from even thinking about creating new enterprises. Yevgeny Nadorshin, an analyst at the Trust Bank, said the industries could not hope to take out affordable loans because banks would be busy addressing their own problems until the end of 2009.
According to a poll conducted by the Institute of the Economy in Transition, the number of businesses that can afford to take out loans has fallen to 52% in April from 58% in March. The businesses that have access to borrowed funds formed the backbone of Russia's economy before the crisis - fuel and energy, metals, and construction.
Nearly all of the largest 10 borrowers, which took out loans ranging between 31 billion rubles ($924 million) and 123 billion rubles ($3.7 billion) in the last six months, are metals and oil companies.
The only large borrower geared to replacing imports is the automotive industry, but it is taking out loans for survival rather than development.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
