MOSCOW, April 24 (RIA Novosti) Armenian-Turkish roadmap may harm Russia's influence in South Caucasus/ Belarus capable of influencing post-Soviet balance/ Gazprom saves on dividends/ Car production in Russia down by two-thirds
Vremya Novostei, Kommersant
Armenian-Turkish roadmap may harm Russia's influence in South Caucasus
Armenia and Turkey announced yesterday that they planned to normalize their relations, which includes opening up the border. Implementation of this plan could seriously damage Russia's influence in Armenia.
Nagorny-Karabakh is the oldest frozen conflict in the South Caucasus. Armenia's longest border (with Azerbaijan) looks like a frontline, and its border with Turkey could not be described as porous.
Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Turkey has regarded Azerbaijan as its main ally in the Caucasus and supported its claim over restoring its territorial integrity, which implies regaining control of Nagorny-Karabakh.
Apart from a tiny window to Iran, Armenia's only other open border is with Georgia, which currently has problems in relations with Russia.
Russia and Iran have been Armenia's main economic partners since 1993, with annual trade at $700 million and $200 million respectively. Trade with Turkey has mostly been conducted in the gray zone, and accounts for 25% of Armenia's foreign trade, according to unofficial estimates.
If Turkey and Armenia open their borders to each other, Armenia will not have any serious reasons to continue to lean heavily on Russia in its foreign policy.
The possibility of an open border is a premium offered by Turkey during the bargaining over Nagorny-Karabakh, where Russia is the main arbiter. Russia does not have a similar asset to offer to Armenia, especially after the Georgian-South Ossetian war in August 2008, which has made Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey more cautious in their dealings with Russia.
In this light, the recent meetings between Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan could be an attempt to snatch the initiative and jump into the train bound for Turkey.
Nagorny-Karabakh, which Russia has used to keep Armenia and Azerbaijan in the wake of its policies, has so far prevented the Kremlin from formulating a stance that would suit both adversaries. If Turkey finds a solution, Russia's influence in the South Caucasus will be limited to Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Gazeta.Ru
Belarus capable of influencing post-Soviet balance
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on Thursday showed Russia, the United States and European Union in his own unique style that his country was serious about claiming a key role among the post-Soviet countries. The country claims to be capable of influencing the opportunities for key players to expand their spheres of influence.
Analysts believe that officials in Belarus, knowing the interest of all the parties concerned, will do their best to cash in on the situation.
In his address to parliament, Lukashenko cited the terms in the current bargaining for Belarus's allegiance. He suggested that Washington lift sanctions imposed on Belarusian companies and return U.S.-Belarusian relations back to their previous level.
To Brussels, he said Europe should decide which countries it wants to see at the EU summit in Prague in May, which is due to document the Eastern Partnership program.
And, he told Moscow that Belarus could do well without Russian Iskander missiles: "We'll build the systems and buy the missiles."
Lukashenko's harsh and controversial statement was intended to "seal his success in the game he is playing against Europe," said Kirill Koktysh from the Association of Political Experts and Consultants.
"By inviting Belarus to join the Eastern Partnership, Europe in fact is abandoning the Belarusian opposition, which still refers to Lukashenko as a 'dictator.' Now the president is trying to force the EU to choose between having relations exclusively with him or no relations with Belarus at all," the political analyst added.
Europeans are trying to save face. On Thursday, Benita Ferrero-Waldner, European Commissioner for External Relations and European Neighbourhood Policy, particularly stressed that the invitation to Prague was addressed to Belarus, not Lukashenko personally.
However, to withdraw the invitation, delivered last Friday by Czech Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg, would be "to admit European failure in Belarus," Koktysh said.
"Lukashenko has proved a better politician in this situation than all the Europeans," he admitted.
Vedomosti, RBC Daily
Gazprom saves on dividends
For the first time in years, Russian energy giant Gazprom plans to reduce dividend payments by more than 50%.
Russia's second largest oil producer, LUKoil, plans to increase dividend payments by 19% despite a fall in profits in 2008.
LUKoil plans to pay 50 rubles ($1.48) per share, or a total of 42.5 billion rubles ($1.45 billion), up 19% compared to 2007. Gazprom will pay 1.28 rubles ($0.037) per share, or 30.3 billion rubles ($897 million), down 52% compared to 2007, said a source with inside information.
LUKoil's shareholders will meet on June 25 and Gazprom's on June 26. Both companies are due to close their registers on May 8.
LUKoil's dividends should account for at least 15% of its net profit calculated to US GAAP, $9.14 billion for 2008, nearly 4% less than the year before. According to the exchange rate in late 2008, the recommended dividends should amount to 15.8% of net profit, or $1.45 billion.
Gazprom's dividends, about 17.5%, are based on net profit calculated to Russian Accounting Standards. Unlike LUKoil, Gazprom did exceedingly well last year. The oil company sustained losses in the fourth quarter over a nearly 67% fall in oil prices, while Gazprom's revenue mainly comes from gas supplies to Europe.
Gas prices are linked to oil prices set six to nine months earlier. They were the highest in the fourth quarter, more than $500 per 1,000 cubic meters compared to $390 last summer. Gazprom's prices for Europe increased by 52% in 2008, to $409, while the price of Urals crude grew merely by 37%, to $94.8 per barrel.
Calculated to RAS, Gazprom sustained losses from the depreciation of its liquid assets. Its net profit fell by 52%, to 173 billion rubles ($5.12 billion), which means that the recommended dividends amount to 17.5%.
It is not clear if Gazprom's main shareholder, the government, will approve the recommendation. The press secretary of the prime minister, who instructs state representatives on Gazprom's board how to vote, was not available for comment.
"We will be happy if Gazprom increased dividend payments," said Wulf Bernotat, CEO of German utility E.ON, adding that his company was a minority shareholder and could not influence Gazprom's policies.
Dmitry Lyutyagin, an analyst with the Moscow-based Veles Capital investment firm, said: "Gazprom has always been a skinflint; it has always paid the lowest dividends in terms of percent [of its profit] in the oil and gas sector."
Kommersant
Car production in Russia down by two-thirds
In the first quarter of 2009, car output in Russia dropped by three times, while sales declined by just 40%. The downtrend has been experienced not just among domestic brands, but also by foreign makes, although their industrial assembly production is least of all crisis-dependent. The industry could show an annualized 30% fall.
According to ASM-Holding, production of vehicles (both cars and trucks) fell in January-March by 65%, down to 139,200 units. In other words, output at Russian plants fell by 2.9 times. Trucks showed the greatest decline (75%), with cars falling by 62.8%. At the same time, car sales in Russia in the first quarter, according to the Association of European Business, did not fall so rapidly - the drop was 40%.
The greatest slump was seen at plants that do not use industrial assembly methods (which allow them to import automotive components at low customs tariffs): Avtotor, TagAZ, AMUR and Derways. Their production fell by 70% to 80%. Plants using industrial assembly techniques to produce foreign models have suffered least of all from the crisis - their output dropped by 32.2%.
Mikhail Lyamin from the Bank of Moscow said that most auto plants (both Russian and foreign) were idle in January, and operated at intervals in February. Figures for the second quarter might be better, because the plants, although on shorter hours, are still operating, the analyst said. ASM-Holding's forecast is that car production across Russia will fall by an annualized 30% - down to one million units.
Lyamin's explanation why industrial assembly plants had showed the least production downturn is that they, unlike AvtoVAZ, did not produce directly = to store stock. He said foreign auto-makers began gradually to decrease their output in November-December, 2008, as the market felt the first impact of the crisis, trying at the same time to sell their stock reserves. AvtoVAZ, on the other hand, built up a stockpile of 100,000 vehicles (two-months' output), which allowed it to stay idle all through January.
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