MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti economic commentator Vlad Grinkevich) - On July 1, gambling across most of Russia's territory has become illegal. Now slot machines, roulette and blackjack tables are supposed to be removed to special gambling zones yet construction there has barely even started.
However, this does not mean that there will be no gambling in Russia. Experts believe that some casino owners will try to use loopholes in the law, while others will find cause to operate underground.
A federal law on the state regulation of gambling was adopted two years ago. It has imposed a ban on gambling outside four special zones - on the border of the Krasnodar Territory and the Rostov Region, the Kaliningrad Region, the Primorye Territory, and the Altai Territory.
Under the law, all casinos and other gaming halls must be moved to these zones, yet up to this day, very little or nothing has been done to this end. The latter two zones only remain on paper, while two land plots have been offered for a tender in the Kaliningrad Region. The Krasnodar Territory has done more than others. According to local officials, 900 million roubles have been allocated from the regional budget to build the infrastructure - a highway, electric power transmission lines, as well as water and gas pipelines. The authorities are convinced that they have done their bit, and now the ball is in the court of businessmen and investors.
However, businessmen are in no rush to invest into the gambling zones. They are not confident that the costs will be justified, and there is a risk that wealthy gamblers will prefer to go abroad. Some companies are already arranging tours to Europe for this purpose. The authorities could lower the risks of investment in the gambling industry by offering tax breaks and establishing strict rules of the game. The Russian officials are back-pedaling; all the while, casinos in Eastern Europe and some CIS countries are already looking forward to receiving Russian gamblers, or rather, their money.
Many of Russia's gamers had hoped that at the very last moment the state will give them a respite until the gambling zones are ready. Why kill the chicken that lays golden eggs? The casinos' turnover in 2008 was estimated at $5.9billion -$6 billion; the gambling industry paid 26.4 billion rubles in taxes to the federal budget, 6 billion rubles to budget of Moscow and 3.5 billion rubles to that of St Petersburg. But the authorities are adamant - there will be no further delay.
Analysts believe that 90% of casinos in Russia will continue operating one way or the other. Some of their owners will do all they can to delay the shutdown of their facilities by finding a "common language" with the local officials and policemen, while others will look for loopholes in the legislation, or go underground. There are many opportunities for obviating the law.
Up to one third of all gambling facilities may turn into poker clubs since Rossport (Federal Agency for Physical Training and Sports) qualified poker as a sport in 2007.
Quite a few casinos may become Internet-cafes with access to virtual roulette or card games. Customers can pay with credit cards or through the Internet. Virtual gambling is forbidden in the "ru" domain but a gambling site can be easily registered in any foreign domain, which does not have such a ban.
There is already evidence that events may take this turn. Law enforcement bodies registered the appearance of dozens of underground casinos in those cities where the local authorities tried to enforce the law banning gambling ahead of time. Punishment for its violation is not very strict - a fine of up to 500,000 rubles or one year in prison.
There is no need to worry for the casino owners. They will not lose their money unlike their employees who will lose their jobs. Before July 1, about 40,000 people worked in casinos in Moscow alone, while the relevant number for Russia was up to 350,000.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
