MOSCOW, July 13 (RIA Novosti) - The Russian government approved on Monday three economic development scenarios for 2010-12, accepting the moderate scenario as the basis for budget forecasts for the next three years.
"We have proposed a scenario based on moderate oil price dynamics as the basic forecast for budget projections," Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina said.
The moderate scenario foresees GDP growth of 1% in 2010, 2.6% in 2011 and 3.8% in 2012, based on Urals oil price assumptions of $55, $56, and $57 per barrel in each year.
The federal budget deficit is projected at 6.5% (2010), 4% (2011), and 3% (2012).
The conservative scenario assumes economic growth of 0.1%, 1.5% and 3.2%, respectively.
In this scenario, the federal budget deficit is set at 5.5% (2010), 3% (2011), and 2% (2012), which would be achieved through spending cuts, particularly in state investment.
The optimistic scenario sees economic revival based on oil prices of $60 (2010), $70 (2011) and $77 (2012). Urals blend is currently trading at around $60 per barrel.
