Poland's National Electoral Commission is to publish the official list of candidates for the June 20 presidential election on Monday. The usually predictable procedure took a turn for the dramatic this year for two reasons: the death of President Lech Kaczynski in a plane crash in early April, and the decision of his twin brother, Jaroslaw, to run for presidency.
The key registered candidates are the parliament speaker Bronislaw Komorowski, the acting president of Poland nominated by the centre-right party Civic Platform, and Jaroslaw Kaczynski, chairman of the radical rightwing party Law and Justice.
Komorowski's victory would have been a certainty if not for the death of Lech Kaczynski. He is the ideal "ordinary" Pole: a former dissident who often criticizes Russia sharply but who opposes taking revenge on all representatives of the communist regime. A Catholic and a father of a large family, but not a fanatic, he supports the market economy but also likes to talk about the plight of working people.
Taken together, the above made him a more likable person than the Kaczynski brothers, who hobnobbed with ultra-radical members of the Catholic clergy and saw agents of the communist secret services everywhere.
As for Russia, either man will prove a difficult partner.
Jaroslaw Kaczynski built his career on anti-Russian rhetoric and ferreted out Russia's "sleeper agents" in the central and local authorities. On the other hand, he wrote a moving video address to Russians following the death of his brother, thanking them "for every tear shed, every candle lit, for every word of comfort."
However, the supporters of Kaczynski and his Law and Justice party regularly hold protest actions, claiming that the Polish and Russian authorities are taking too long to investigate the death of their president.
The opposition includes the liberal media, which disliked the president when he was alive and now want to prevent his twin brother from reviving Lech's ideology. "Well, and where are your conspiracy theories now, gentlemen?" asks Marcin Wojciechowski, a journalist for the daily paper Gazeta Wyborcza.
This situation is paradoxical for many reasons. Polish liberals (including, to a degree, Komorowski), who traditionally disliked the Russian authorities but who supported Russian dissidents, are now helping Russia because of their confrontation with Kaczynski's Law and Justice. However, Komorowski will resume his harshly anti-Russian rhetoric as soon as the election race ends and the Russian-Polish unity sealed in shared grief following the Smolensk crash fades.
Are there other forces in Poland aside from the liberals and radicals? Yes, but they have been pushed to the periphery of the political stage and are most likely to play their part only during the second round.
The most interesting second-tier candidate and the one who would suit Russia best is Grzegorz Napieralski, 34 years of age, a left-wing politician and the current chairman of the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD). He had barely started school when the socialist regime collapsed in Poland, and so is unlikely to take revenge on Russia, unlike almost all the other Polish politicians who were connected with the Solidarity movement, from Komorowski to Kaczynski. He is also anti-clerical and supports the separation of the church and state.
The SLD has a large body of supporters among the electorate because it ruled Poland for long periods in the 1990s and in the early 21st century, but recently blundered as it tried to escape its communist past. (The SLD is the legal successor of the Polish United Workers Party.)
Its recent leaders have been young people who tried to oust the political veterans who built their careers during the communist period, such as former Politburo member Leszek Miller and former prime minister Jozef Oleksy. Napieralski is the first of the young leaders who is not fighting the old-timers and who is liked by the older generation, including Miller.
During the second round of voting in the election, 89% of Napieralski's voters plan to support Komorowski - not because they like Liberals, but because they dislike Jaroslaw Kaczynski.
But Social Democrats are still praying for a miracle, hoping that Napieralski and Kaczynski will make it to the second round, which could tilt the balance in favor of the young politician and against the old moralizer.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti commentator Dmitry Babich)
